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Official r/NFL Week 14 Power Rankings

Welcome to the week 14 Official NFL Power Rankings! With circus catches and beatdowns alongside great games, there was plenty to discuss even before a MNF Scorigami that might already be airing on ESPN classic. 32/32 Reporting
# Team Δ Record Comment
1. Chiefs -- 12-1 The Dolphins gave the Chiefs all they could handle in the first quarter of Sunday's game, but the Chiefs once again proved that when they are focused, they are the most dangerous team in the NFL. Travis Kelce, the NFL's leading receiver currently, had another monster game showing why he's a future hall of famer. However, after having five 10+ point wins in the first eight weeks of the season, the Chiefs last five wins have all been won by one score. Will this trend ultimately matter come playoff time? It's hard to argue with results, as the Chiefs 12-1 record is the best record through 13 games in franchise history. The ultimate barometer for the Chiefs is this week as they travel to play the Saints, hopefully with Drew Brees. Many questions will be answered in this clash of two top five teams.
2. Packers +2 10-3 There always seems to be one Lions-Packer game a year that ends up being some kind of adventure. Rodgers and Adams were as good as ever but the Lions kept on lingering throughout the game. Mason "Silver Fox" Crosby nailed an insurance 58 yard field goal with 3:30 to play and made a touchdown-saving tackle on the immediate kickoff. Aside from Crosby, the special teams really leave a lot to be desired, especially after the hands team almost allowed a onside kick recovery (c'mon y'all I don't need Bostic flashbacks). Packers officially won the division game and are now the projected 1 seed, which is pretty neat ngl. Onto a Saturday game I guess?
3. Bills +2 10-3 For a team that was searching desperately in 2019 for a signature win, the 2020 Bills have found them everywhere they turn. This team has had one of the toughest schedules in the league, but except for a couple games they've shown up every time they've had to. This is the second-best team in the conference. The Bills bandwagons are circling now. Josh Allen's extending his baseball glove-sized hand. He says "get in nerds, we're goin' to the Super Bowl."
4. Saints -1 10-3 This loss = Hurts. Dennis Allen seemingly had no answers for the rookie QB and then Miles Sanders piled on as well. "All the things we didn't want to allow happen, happened in that game." This was Sean Payton's post-game assessment and it's fair. Taysom Hill had an acceptable statline but it hides how sloppy he looked on the field. The defense struggled with its assignment to contain Hurts and keep him from getting outside the pocket - a worrying sign considering the next QB on the schedule.
5. Steelers -3 11-2 The Steelers schedule has been insane. 6 days between NYG and DEN. 14 days between HOU and PHI. 10 days between JAX and BAL. But with that BAL game, the Steelers played them, WFT and BUF in 12 days. 3 games in 12 days. The team is out of LBs and OL. This has been a challenging season for everyone, but this is unprecedented. The Steelers have 8 days until CIN, then 6 days until IND. 10 out of 16 games played with an irregular schedule? You can argue the drops are kicking their ass, but this schedule has been brutal. No wonder they've lost 2 straight.
6. Rams -- 9-4 Imagine only scoring 3 points in a game.
7. Colts +1 9-4 Kenny Moore is a player underrated by national media but massively valuable to the Colts. GM Chris Ballard made re-signing him a priority after his breakout 2018 season. Moore has been a reliable performer throughout his tenure as a Colt and added an exclamation point with his insane one-handed interception on Sunday.
8. Titans +1 9-4 Derrick Henry had his second 200+ yard 2 TD game against the Jaguars on Sunday. The performance made Henry the 7th player to rush for 1,500+ yards and 14+ TDs through 13 games.
9. Seahawks +1 9-4 Nothing cures suicidal thoughts losing like playing the Jets, baby. Sunday was never much of a game, as it was all Seahawks all day. Russell Wilson threw for 4 touchdowns, Jamal Adams broke the single season sack record for defensive backs, and Geno Smith got to play a full quarter against the team that drafted him. What a way to get over a bad loss to the Giants. Up next the Seahawks will take on their final NFC East opponent of the season; Football Team.
10. Ravens +2 8-5 This ranker is a brown man, writing about how Lamar Jackson lost 20 pounds dropping some brown, dropping a TD to Brown, to go ahead against the Browns. They go for two. So in response, K-hunt ties the game, 42-42. In response, the Llama sets up the GOAT to nail a 54-yarder, 16th game winner of his career! To say nothing else of the game -- 9 total fucking rushing touchdowns, tying a record held since two defunct teams played each other before anyone on reddit was born... and Jackson runs for a MNF QB record 124 yards -- but still gets all the clutch plays done with his arm, with this middling group of receivers. The even greater news amidst all this is that the schedule doesn't look so bad in the closing stretch, and inspired play like this past Monday from the offense will ease the burden of the Ravens' gradually depleting secondary. Best wishes to Trace McSorely who made an extremely commendable effort to set them up for Lamar's return.
11. Browns -4 9-4 Did you bet the over? The Browns and Ravens combined for 89 points in an absolute rollercoaster of a game. While they did not win, the Browns have shown they are contenders. With two games to go a real shot at the playoffs is on the table. The Browns will face the Giants in another prime time game.
12. Buccaneers -1 8-5 The Buccaneers pulled off a 26-14 win over the Vikings, bringing their playoff chances to 94%. Vikes kicker Dan Bailey channeled his inner Gary Anderson to win the Bucs' game ball on an 0/3 kicking performance with an additional missed XP. Rookie Antoine Winfield Jr. played a disruptive game against his dad's former team and is looking like he has the potential to be one of the league's next great safeties. With only interim coaches to close out the remaining three games of the season, the Bucs should have smooth sailing into the Wild Card round.
13. Dolphins -- 8-5 There are no consolation prizes in the NFL, but a single score loss to the best team in the league while the backup waterboy is lining up in the slot is about as close to a one as you'll ever get. While he was able to pull off the win, even Patrick Mahomes couldn't keep this ball-hawking defense from getting a hold of the ball, often. And at some point, if people don't start talking about Xavien Howard in the DPOY conversation, he's just going to go intercept the damned award himself. Hopefully, the long, long list of injured Dolphins get well soon.
14. Cardinals +1 7-6 A monster day from Haason Reddick and the defense finally put the Cardinals back on the winning track. Breaking a franchise record with 5 sacks was one thing, but getting all the turnovers was huge. Hopefully the offense feeds off of it and has a good week in preparing for a big game with Philly that has huge playoff implications. It will take a complete team effort to beat Philly with Jalen Hurts starting fresh of a win against the Saints.
15. Raiders -1 7-6 The Raiders looked really bad against the Colts, just like they have for the better part of the last 6 weeks. Luckily Gruden finally made the call to fire Pauly G, something fans have been calling for for the past 2 seasons. Only time will tell if it's too little, too late. Every game from here on out is a must win if the Raiders want to make the playoffs.
16. Washington FT +3 6-7 Washington is finding ways to win instead of finding ways to lose. The offense was not able to score a TD so the defense went ahead and spotted them 14 points. Chase Young notches his first TD and continues to prove his worth as the 2nd overall pick as a game wrecker.
17. Vikings -- 6-7 Dalvin Cook became the first back to rush for over 100 yards against the Bucs in over 20 games, but the Vikings were unable to convert long drives into points as Dan Bailey went 0/4 on field goals and extra points. Couple that with some questionable officiating, the Vikings' banged up front seven generating zero pressure on Tom Brady and plenty of self-inflicted wounds and it all adds up to a real tough loss that knocks the Vikings down from wild card favorites to playoff long shots.
18. Bears +5 6-7 The Bears finally snapped their six-game losing streak by rolling over the Texans without much difficulty. Trubisky attempted one throw longer than 20 yards.
19. Patriots -3 6-7 Los Angeles, is a land of contrasts - In a span of four days the Patriots' hopes for a postseason were revived and then unceremoniously squashed. Run Defense, Offensive Line, Cam and the Receivers, There just are too many holes to cover up with week to week coaching, this team needs some reworking over the offseason. The Pats end the season with the division as always, lets hope to fuck someone’s season or seeding up. And also the Jets.
20. 49ers -2 5-8 The 49ers defense did their job, holding the Washington offense to a total of 9 points, but the offense had two takeaways brought back for touchdowns and could not recover. The team looks to right the ship this week against the Cowboys.
21. Broncos +5 5-8 Drew Lock put up the third-highest passer rating in team history — behind a couple guys you may know. In the battle of 4-8's, the Broncos somehow managed to not blow a sizeable fourth-quarter lead and emerge victorious. Winning the game but losing The Hunt for a Better Draft Pick. Will the team remain in purgatory? Stay tuned.
22. Giants -2 5-8 It’s a real joy to watch the rest of the teams in the up-for-grabs NFC East secure wins, with one being against a top-5 team, all while watching your team play so poorly they start setting franchise records. At least we can say the hype was fun while it lasted, right?
23. Falcons -1 4-9 Outplayed by a team whose most impressive win is a tossup between the Bengals, Jaguars, and Jets? Check. Outcoached by special teams ace Anthony Lynn? Check. Ten point lead blown, two interceptions with under five minutes left, double check. Good thing age is just a number for the 32nd youngest team in the league.
24. Panthers -3 4-9 I'm not sure where the Panthers go from here. Coach Rhule has said that he isn't going to do the team and fans a disservice by beginning to evaluate players, which means that we're going to see more of Teddy Bridgewater (who is 0-7 in one score games this season) crumble at the end of the game. Playing at Lambeau in primetime in December is one of the hardest things a team can do, and it's not going to be an easy test for the Panthers, who so far have shown that they can't win close games, nor can they defend the pass (23rd in passing defense). It's going to be tough sledding, but hopefully Jeremy Chinn can continue his torrid pace and run his way into DROY.
25. Eagles +3 4-8-1 Jalen Hurts delivered the spark the Eagles needed to upset the Saints and spread 'quarterback controversy' all over the city of brotherly love. While the season remains a disappointment, the dual running threat of Hurts and Sanders could be interesting to watch going forward, and the NFC Least remains wide-open with 2 divisional games left on the 2020 menu.
26. Lions -1 5-8 Even with a loss, Interim HC Darrell Bevell showed that his Lions are here to compete. This game was never out of hands, and the Lions kept it close the entire time. There are still plenty of woes on Defense, but the Offense continued to ball out as expected. With two TD's coming from the run game (Swift and Kerryon), there is already something to look forward to next year. Lately the team has been able to trust the run on short yardage and redzone carries and it has helped the team with consistency in the red zone. Unfortunately, Aaron Rodgers is a QB that can carve up a weak secondary... so that didn't go great. There's around a 1% chance of the Lions getting a playoff spot, not unheard of, but it'll be tough if Stafford's injury progresses and we lose him for the season. #DefendTheDen
27. Chargers -- 4-9 First of all, props to Falcons Twitter for this gem before the game, and it played out exactly as expected. Both teams did their best to try giving it away at the end, but the Chargers ended up on the winning side this time around. The Chargers had their hiccups again but there were improvements across the board; Justin Herbert's 81.8% completion percentage is his highest of the season, the defense came away with 3 INTs, and special teams probably had their best day. The Chargers get a short week before a Thursday Night tilt in Las Vegas.
28. Texans -4 4-9 The Texans are lucky that Paxton is the Texas AG, otherwise they would have had the biggest blowout loss in the state this past week.
29. Cowboys -- 4-9 The Red Rifle won his revenge game, the defense forced multiple turnovers, and the Bengals were held to 3.4 yards per carry. All that, and the Cowboys still come out of the week with a top 5 draft pick. Honestly, Sunday couldn't have gone better. Now, the only question is whether this was the team turning the corner and the beginning of a strong finish to the season, or this was just a perfect moment of the Cowboys finding a shittier team with serious injuries issues and just doing what should happen in that scenario.
30. Bengals -- 2-10-1 Giovani Bernard hadn't fumbled since 2013 before his 1st quarter fumble on Sunday. So what does he get for his troubles? A spot on the bench thanks to Zac Taylor. Giovani was one of the only veterans who spoke out in behalf of Taylor and the current coaches when multiple articles were released with "sources" saying that Taylor had lost the locker room last month. You have to question the benching for multiple reasons as the directionless Bengals continue to flounder to blowout losses. Just another reason why this should be Zac Taylor's last season as head coach in Cincinnati.
31. Jaguars -- 1-12 This one felt more as expected. Perhaps it was in former GM Dave Caldwell's plans— no, wait, hear me out. Adjusting tinfoil hat; Based on the moves taken this offseason to seemingly dump talent from the Jaguars in attempt to amass more draft picks, perhaps the former front office of the Jaguars were banking on this season not being played, due to pandemic reasons. Sure, this may sound farfetched, but I'd like to hear a more reasonable explanation for fielding such a disaster as this team, this season.
32. Jets -- 0-13 The Jets have now scored on 7 consecutive opening drives, the longest streak in the NFL. After climbing to an early 3-0 lead, I watched Peter Sawkins make an excellent cranachan custard slice on The Great British Bake Off.
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Here's an in-depth breakdown of Super Bowl LV:

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We have made it! All 256 regular season and – since this year – twelve playoff games are in the books and there is just one matchup left to decide who will be crowned NFL champions. There are so many storylines leading up to the big game – the GOAT Tom Brady versus the kid Patrick Mahomes, two of the all-time great tight-ends on either side of the ball wearing number 87, the Buccaneers becoming the first ever team to host a Super Bowl in their home stadium, Andy Reid after all this time of coming up short, potentially winning back-to-back titles, while Bruce Arians is looking to finally get his first ring as a head coach and potentially becoming the oldest one to earn one in history, and many others.
As I do every year, I wanted to give a detailed look ahead to the big game, where I break down who these teams are, kind of how they got here and how they match up against each other. To do so I put together analysis of each offense and defense, plus where each could have the advantage, then I take a look back at when these two teams first met back in week 12, explain what they have and/or should have learned from it, give you an X-factor on either side of the ball for both and finally hand out my score prediction, while explaining what I believe will happen.
Let’s dive into it!
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Buccaneers offense vs. Chiefs defense:

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The Tampa Bay offense has been transitioning throughout the season. Early on it was Bruce Arians’ system with a lot of 12 and even 13 personnel, trying to establish a gap-scheme power run game and taking play-action shots off it from under center. And then a second offense was kind of implemented, which was more suited to what Tom Brady was used to in New England, where they spread the field and attack defenses with the quick game. However, it really was two separate playbooks almost, that they worked in. I think we have seen a little more of a symbiotic relationship, which I believe Byron Leftwich has had a big role in putting together. They motion their backs in and out or use their receivers as pre-snap coverage indicators at a much higher rate, letting Brady be surgical in the quick passing game, but still attacking vertically and using Gronk and the tight-ends as that extra in-line blocker to get enough time, because Brady still more than enough juice in his arm to push the ball down the field. Since week ten, Cameron Brate has also played about 41 percent of the snaps and I believe he gives them more versatility in what they can be from two tight-end personnel, since he can basically be a big slot for them. Their receiving corp as a whole offers a lot of versatility, whether it’s Mike Evans moving more into the slot this season, Antonio Brown being able to line up at any of the receiver spots or specialists like Scotty Miller to attack down the field.
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It’s a well-established narrative that if you can get to Tom Brady early, he becomes a much less effective passer and if you look at the five games, that they have come up short in 2020 (Saints twice, Bears, Rams and Chiefs), they have lost the battle up front offensively. Since their week 13 bye, following their last loss to Kansas City (including the playoffs), they have gone undefeated whilst averaging 34.3 points per game, with at least 30 in all three postseason battles. Looking at those games in particular, the defense was dominant at New Orleans and set up scoring opportunities directly, but against Washington and Green Bay, they completed a combined 11 passes of 20+ yards. So it is still very much about the big plays through the air (finished top three in 20+ and 40+ yard passes), but the efficiency of this offense has really gone up to a different level. At Detroit they were so dominant that Brady sat out the entire second half, then they scored on all but one of their possessions against Atlanta and now over this three-game road playoff run, they have had only three combined three-and-outs and turnovers in each of them. A big key to that has been the Bucs offensive line keeping Brady clean, as he has gotten sacked only 11 times over their active seven-game win streak and just once in all but two of those contests. To go with having better solutions to beat the blitz in their system.
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https://reddit.com/link/lcn8vq/video/5o8inlufbif61/player
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Unlike a lot of modern NFL offenses, that have incorporated more RPO elements and try to create numbers advantages in the run game with spread sets, Bruce Arians still brings that old-school flair with multiple tight-end sets and the power run game. There’s not a lot of wide zone blocking, but rather they create vertical movement at the point of attack with a heavy dose of duo, get those big offensive linemen on the move on toss plays and then I love watching those receivers get involved as blockers in the box – especially Chris Godwin, who they seriously have leading up in the hole or trapping three-techniques. When they run play-action off those looks, they use a lot of seven- and eight-man protections and try to hit defenses over the top, whether it’s deep crossers and posts or straight go routes down the sideline. As much success as they have with that recipe, when you look at the analytics, their tendency to run the ball on early downs shows there’s plenty of improvement in terms of efficiency, which is something I want to see them do in this game, to not get behind the chains and allow the Chiefs defense to be as creative on third down. When they go into shotgun and spread the field more, they look for ways to attack the middle of the field with their inside receivers primarily and when they see one-on-one on the outside with Mike Evans or Antonio Brown, they will take their shots. Double-moves are a large ingredient to what they do, especially out-and-up routes.
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For the Chiefs defense, they looked like they had carried over that momentum from last year’s Super Bowl run into 2020, not giving up more than 20 points in any of their first four games. In week five, the Raiders out of nowhere exploded for 40 points and handed them their only loss outside of week 17, when they rested several starters, before having three more great showings at Buffalo, Denver and then hosting the Jets. But since then, they have allowed at least 24 points in six of their final eight games. Part of that negative turnaround was the injuries they have had in the secondary and the lack of takeaways (one per game). The biggest piece however has been their inability to keep teams out of the end-zone when they got close. Looking at the whole regular season, no other team has allowed their opponents to create a higher rate of their red-zone trips into touchdowns (74.1%). That’s why so many of their games stayed close deep into the fourth quarter, which I’ll get to more in a little bit. When you look into play-calling, you can see that they played a lot more zone-coverage and rushed only four or five, because they simply didn’t have the guys their could trust to cover in man. Outside of one game, where they felt like they had a great feel for the opposing route-patterns, which I’ll get to soon.
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Yet, once again, that unit has stepped up in the postseason and the two things that stand out to me are defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s brilliant game-planning and their ability to stop one-dimensional offenses. When I look at what they did against the Browns, if you take away one 23-yard burst from Nick Chubb, Cleveland’s elite running back duo was held to 78 yards on 18 carries, as Spagnuolo gave their opponents a lot of looks that they didn’t want to run into and then had a safety drop out of the box late. Then in the AFC title game, to take away Buffalo’s dynamic passing offense (which ranked top three in all major categories), they played a lot of cover-two and two-man, where their DBs pressed the hell out of the Bills receivers and then they played a lot of different versions of those two-high shells, like invert cover-two or bringing Tyrann Mathieu down as the MIKE in Tampa-two basically, which forced Josh Allen to hold onto the ball. What I can promise you is that they aren’t afraid of bringing heavy pressure and then having their coverage defenders well-schooled in the concepts they should focus on taking away primarily while the Honeybadger is often allowed to move pretty freely as the robber. Frank Clark hasn’t quite lived up to his contract, but he has had big moments in the playoffs these last two years, Chris Jones is one of the most disruptive interior D-linemen in the game, who they can move all over the line, and they have several big bodies they can rotate through to stay fresh and eat double-teams.
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Chiefs offense vs. Bucs defense:

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As much as we all love the Kansas City offense and we see them as this unit that blows us away with flashy play-designs and throws over the top, they have really been alternating their approach over the course of the season as well. When you go all the way back to their season-opener against the Texans, you see that they used more of a West Coast and RPO-oriented attack to punish a defense that played a lot of soft zones and invited them to throw the ball short. However, two weeks later at Baltimore, they were destroying the Ravens’ single-high safety and man-coverage principles by letting their speedy receivers streak down the field and call double-moves at 15+ yards of depth. Then three weeks after that, when they found themselves in a rainy setting at Buffalo against a soft interior run defense, they pounded the ball 46 times for almost 250 yards on the ground. So they have shown the ability to adapt to their opponents. However, with several injuries on the offensive line – most notably a turnstile at left guard and those two tackles, which will now both be out for the Super Bowl – and opposing defenses taking the approach of using a lot more split-safety looks and trying to take away the big play, they have turned back into being more methodical in their plan and putting together long drives. In the AFC Championship game in particular, with Patrick Mahomes coming off a turf toe injury, their gameplan and drive charts look almost like what they used to with Alex Smith, in terms of the West Coast designs and those glance or slant routes on the backside of RPO concepts.
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When you look at this KC offense, they have had large stretches of getting static in games and as great as they are at moving the ball between the 20s, they are only 14th league-wide in red-zone touchdown percentage (61%). Some people may not realize this, but since their week eight blowout win over the Jets, they had not won a game by more than six points until the AFC title game. That is due to a combination of tendency to start slow, their poor red-zone efficiency and the inability to run the ball consistently with all the movement they have had on the O-line, having rushed for 135+ yards just three times all season. With that being said, Darrell Williams has been a big factor as a power runner these playoff and rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire should be back to full health. In addition to that, they find other ways to put the ball in the hands of their skill-players quickly, using the speed of their receiving crew on bubbles and speed sweeps, to go along with well-designed longer-developing screens, such as the double swing-fake and then middle screen to Travis Kelce. They also use their star tight-end quite a bit on those power shovels in short-yardage situations and I believe their most effective run play is the speed option, because of the way Mahomes can manipulate that end-man at the line.
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While I have seen them run anything from 23 personnel to going empty with Kelce detached from the line (so basically a five-wide situation), there are a few things the Chiefs love to run. Their go-to formation is a three-by-one set with Kelce as the single receiver, mostly flexed out wide, but also in-line. In 2019 they ran three verticals from that trips side and then had Kelce on a shallow crosser over and over again. This year they still run it quite a bit, but they let the tight-end run more corner or curl routes, to allow inside receivers from the other side attack the middle of the field and isolate their backs against the linebackers, in addition to running power that way. And then they motion someone like Tyreek Hill or Mecole Hardman across, which for the most part gets opposing defense to move into two-high coverages and play off. So if KC runs either one up the seams, there’s usually a ton of space underneath. The two things that take this offense to the next level however, are trick plays and off-script production. What makes Andy Reid and Eric Bienemy great is not only their ability to exploit defensive schemes, but they are so creative and don’t shy away from throwing reverse passes, underhand shovels to their fullback or digging up tape from the 1948 Rose Bowl. And then there’s all the thing Mahomes can do off script. That guy is so slippery to extend plays while continuing to look downfield and his pass-catchers are so adept at adjusting on the fly and finding the open areas, especially that sixth sense-like connection he has with Kelce.
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I have been higher on the Bucs defense for pretty much the entire year, which was really up and down for them as a unit. They have had moments of dominance, like keeping three straight opponents to under 50 rushing yards each or holding Green Bay’s number-one ranked offense to just 10 points in their regular season meeting, but they also gave up a combined 72 points in their first two meetings with the Saints and got lit up for over 450 yards through the air when hosting these same Chiefs back in week 12 (I’ll analyze that matchup in detail in our next segment). During this playoff run however, they have really stepped up in big moments to get them to this point. Whether it’s forcing four turnovers at New Orleans or sacking Aaron Rodgers five times and making a historically great red-zone offense settle for a couple of chip-shot field goals at Green Bay. When you look at their duo of edge rushers, Shaq Barrett is tied for the lead-league in QB hurries (24) and only three players in the NFL (all DBs) have forced more turnovers than Jason Pierre-Paul (six). Then they have the most dynamic linebacker tandem in all of football, which are heavily involved in their pressure packages and make it nearly impossible to get outside the tackle box in the run game, and now with Vita Vea back in the lineup, they have a wall on the inside that nobody can run on consistently. That’s how they finished the regular season as the clear number one run defense in the league. The secondary has been the problem child at times, especially when defensive coordinator Todd Bowles has put them in pure man-coverage, but by moving their safeties around more to bracket and help in certain areas of the field, they have really improved in that department.
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Bowles is an aggressive play-caller by nature and they have created a lot of problems for opposing offenses by bringing one more than you can block (blitzed on 39% of plays). It has bitten them in their behind at times as well, but from what I have seen on tape, they have been more strategic in how they use it. Especially on third downs, I love how they have used their safeties as moving pieces, having them key on certain areas of the field or defending the sticks. In the NFC Championship game for example, one of the biggest plays of the afternoon was that Aaron Jones fumble at the start of the second half, when the Packers thought they had defeated the man-coverage with a shallow crosser to Jones whilst picking the underneath coverage, but Jordan Whitehead raced up from the other side of the field and jarred the ball loose just as the RB tried to turn upfield and convert on third down. That willingness to drive on routes is also apparent when they run quarters coverage and you see Whitehead and rookie Antoine Winfield Jr. break on the ball, looking to take somebody’s head off, while they are also heavily involved in their blitz packages. That combined with those guys coming off the edges, Ndamokung as a bully on the inside and a pretty unknown contributor in William Gholston has them ranking in the top five in sacks, pressure percentage, turnovers and tackles for loss.
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Examining the first matchup:

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Like I already mentioned, these two teams met back in week 12. The Chiefs jumped out to an early 17-0 lead in the first quarter, with Tyreek Hill racking up over 200 receiving yards over those 15 minutes already and the Bucs offense having just one combined first down over the first four possessions. Kansas City was in the red-zone once more mid-way through the second quarter, but a Shaquille Barrett strip-sack gave Brady & company the ball with some life and they were able to go on the board. That really got things to click and they fought their way back to being down only three, despite a couple of interceptions for Tampa Bay’s QB killing drives, because after scoring a touchdown on their initial try for the Chiefs, the Bucs defense really stepped up and held their opponents scoreless the rest of the way. However, Mahomes and Hill were able to run down the final four minutes and close the game, not giving Brady’s troops another chance, as they were coming off consecutive TD drives at the end, to secure a 27-24 victory.
While the Chiefs certainly took their foot off the gas pedal and tried to run the ball more, which KC outside of what Mahomes did, rushed for only 59 yards on 16 carries, I really thought this was a breaking point for Tampa Bay as a team. The offense started finding a groove and the only two drives that didn’t result in points from that final first half possession on, ended in picks. The defense on the other hand adjusted what they were doing in coverage and held that explosive KC attack to just ten points through the final three quarters. So while I think the result may be a little deceiving and the Chiefs could have easily won by double-digits, I look back at this as more of a launching pad for a team that has been the best in the NFC from that point on and now represents that conference in the big game, with a chance to learn from their early mistakes. Here are a few things that really stood out to me when they first met:
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When you look back at the ridiculous first quarter Tyreek Hill had at Tampa Bay, what really stands out is how much he was left one-on-one in coverage, often times with Carlton Davis, who has had a good season in general, but is a bigger corner who ran in the low 4.5s at the combine – no way can he keep up consistently against the fastest man in football. Davis did follow Tyreek for the most part, in particular when he was the single receiver or the #3 in that trips set with Travis Kelce soloed up on the opposite side. And the Chiefs did a great job of creating those one-on-ones with motions, where they moved Kelce in line or forced Davis to trail Hill, when he came across the formation from that trips alignment. Tyreek’s two long touchdown came on a subtle double-move after they motioned Kelce in and then on a streak across the field as the #3 from trips. That opened up the middle of the field later on for Kelce on hook and dig routes. Something else Kansas City did in the first half particularly was using more 12 and even 13 personnel than I had seen from them all season long. They still couldn’t run the ball a lick out of those sets, but they were effective in the passing game when used, especially chipping both those guys off the edges for Tampa, with one of the TEs and the running back.
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Tampa Bay called a lot of passing concepts with five-man protections early versus Kansas City bringing an array of blitzes (18 on 42 drop-backs). Especially on third downs, they were able to create at least one free rusher and then they had one or two defenders bailing out to take away the middle of the field. However, the Bucs made some very effective adjustments in the second half with hot-route to defeat those blitzes and putting that “bail defender” I will call it here in a bind, with a seam and spot route underneath for example. Of course the Chiefs still got two interceptions off Brady, that stopped promising drives, but when you look at what went wrong on those plays, first Ronald Jones overset to the outside trying to pick up Tyrann Mathieu off the edge, which led to an underthrown deep ball by Brady that was brought in by Bashaun Breeland along the sideline, as Scotty Miller got pushed out wide on his release, and then Mathieu got an INT of his own, as Mike Evans didn’t recognize the pressure and the ball went off the helmet of a blitzing Daniel Sorensen. In general, they were able to get the ball out quickly – especially to their tight-ends – to take advantage of limited resources in coverage and on the final two drives, when KC brought heat almost every single snap, they were punished for it.
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What each team can take away:

A couple of adjustments that I already saw in the first meeting or that I would like to see for each team would be:
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For the Bucs, the one thing I want to see most is using more dummy counts to show pressure pre-snap and give Brady a clear picture. Whether they try to block it up with the tight-ends and backs in protection or alert the hot read, the more information they can get from a Spagnuolo defense that prides itself on disguising pressures and coverages, they more adept they will be at defeating those. Once they do that, this could turn into a chess match, where the Chiefs show something different intentionally to make Brady kill the original play and then have to pull the ball down anyway, as the picture changes once the snap is off. And something else they should take advantage of is isolating what is a below-average group of linebackers in the passing game. Their RB core isn’t overly impressive in terms of their receiving abilities, especially when you look at the amount of drops we have seen from Leonard Fournette, but maybe they dig LeSean McCoy out more for this matchup and see if he can win on option routes and Tampa actually put AB in the backfield a couple of times in the backfield in their prior meeting, only they ran him downfield on wheel routes.
Defensively I already saw some stuff that I really through quarters two to four, in terms of using their safety tandem to bracket Hill and Kelce on a lot of snaps and on key downs in particular, forcing the ancillary pieces of that offense to beat them. I will mention one of my X-factors and his role in how that “gamble” could end up in the next segment, but those two guys accounted for 55.5 percent of Kansas City’s total passing yardage. So it’s certainly a chance worth taking and if you go with a game-plan, where your two stand-up guys on the second level are more involved in covering space underneath, as Tyreek may be utilized as more of a decoy that runs off the deep coverage, you can eliminate a lot of yardage after the catch, since teams that rush four and play coverage have been the ones giving the Chiefs some issues at times. However, that doesn’t mean that I don’t want the Bucs to not use their linebackers as blitzing threats. They should try to cover up the open gaps with those guys and create one-on-ones across the board, to enable their edge rushers to dominate against KC’s backup tackles. And something the Browns against them a few times, which I really liked, was rushing four or five, but not giving up assets in coverage, as they had somebody drop out to replace those blitzers and still create a free rusher.
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On the Chiefs’ side, I really liked the plan of chipping those two guys off the edges, as I already discussed, with an extra tight-end on the field, and while they are a spread-oriented offense, they had a lot of success when they used 12 personnel and threw the ball out of those looks. Because you can’t cover the whole field and have to take away what Kansas City sends vertically, those TEs and backs are often times all by themselves as they release into the flats. If that happens, like it did in their prior meeting, Mahomes has to take the free yardage and open up the deeper areas of the field again, as the Bucs have to re-adjust. The other thing I can tell you for sure is that the Bucs are obviously terrified of Tyreek burning them deep again and I’m sure there won’t be many chances to just attack their corners in man-coverage for big plays. So if they give Hill a lot soft cushions, they have to repeat what did to the Bills’ Tre’Davious White in terms of getting him the ball quickly on smoke routes and forcing those guys to tackle their electric receiver. While vertical prowess has to be used as a decoy, in terms of putting him in the slot of those three-by-one sets and having him run up the seam, while you attack underneath that. If you get Mecole Hardman one-on-one with their third-best CB on a post-corner route, while the flanker runs a hitch or square-in to bind the guy on the outside, that could be free money.
When I switch to defense, they had a ton of success bringing the blitz and not allowing Brady to step into throws. I would certainly say they were happy with that game-plan and they have reason to feel confident in the guys they have on the back-end, with the way they have showed out so far in the postseason. However, I have now talked about this at length and the Bucs have watched that tape over and over again. There is no way, those guys will be as ill-prepared to counter those pressure packages as they were back in November. Hell, Brady was dicing them up in the fourth quarter and I just detailed how those two picks came about. So Steve Spagnuolo can still bring the heat in certain situations and test Tampa Bay in their ability to pick up the blitz, but he has to be more strategic in how he uses it. The second thing to consider here is how you mask those linebackers, when you decide to utilize them more in coverage. Those players can be very effective as downhill thumpers in the run game, taking on pulling guards and filling holes, but they aren’t great in space. The Raiders in their two matchups against Kansas City had a lot of success attacking that area of the field with crossing routes. Chris Godwin and Gronk would be guys for that task, so maybe if you have them to one side, the opposite linebacker is the one you blitz and you bring down Sorensen or Mathieu to replace him in that hook-area, while looking to pick up anybody working across the field.
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X-factors:

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Buccaneers – Aaron Stinnie & Jamel Dean

I’m not going to give you a name like Scotty Miller here, because at this point, he is more likely to catch at least one deep ball than not. Ronald Jones’ health will be key as well, to give the Bucs that physical one-two punch out of the backfield. However, I’m going with their starting right guard Aaron Stinnie, who just got his first two starts of the year during these playoffs. The Bucs O-line has been dominant over the course of this seven-game win streak, like I already mentioned, holding opponents to just 11 sacks combined in those games and an average of 115 rushing yards during these playoffs, despite some tough competition. Alex Cappa was one of the road-graders on the interior for Tampa and only missed three total snaps throughout the regular season, before fracturing his ankle mid-way through their Wildcard game at Washington. Stinnie has since stepped since then and played pretty well, but he was also responsible for the only sack on Brady in the NFC Championship game at Green Bay, when Kenny Clark went right through him on a bull rush. Well, the challenge will not get any easier, as I’d expect the Chiefs to line up Chris Jones in the B-gap as much as possible and try to exploit that matchup, on passing downs in particular. That’s why it will be crucial for Tampa Bay to stay ahead of the chains, unlike they did in the first matchup, and slow the rush down a little bit. Good thing Stinnie is lined up in-between arguably the top rookie right tackle of 2020 in rookie Tristan Wirfs and one of the better centers in Ryan Jensen, who will be looking to land a rib-shot on the guy over Stinnie, on the snaps that he is uncovered for.
As for the Bucs defense, that whole group of corners will have to step up in a major way, as they hope to slow down this explosive KC passing attack. Obviously, Carlton Davis’ name will come up a whole lot early on during the broadcast, as Tony Romo and Jim Nantz show what Tyreek Hill did to him early on in that week 12 meeting, and I could see Hill be matched up with Sean Murphy-Bunting in the slot a whole lot as well, but since I expect the safety to that side to keep his eyes constantly on him, when he lines up inside and makes it easier to bracket to some degree. Instead, I’m looking at Jamel Dean, who primarily is Tampa Bay’s field-side corner, unless they have Davis travelling with the opposing team’s number one receiver in certain matchups, which I wouldn’t expect, as the Bucs coaches go back to the tape of that first matchup. If Todd Bowles is smart – and from what I’ve seen from his as a coach, as much as aggressiveness may have hurt him at times, he is – he will build on what they did in the second half of that last game, when he used his two safeties to bracket Hill and Kelce almost every snap and forced the rest of that receiving corp to beat them. That puts the spotlight on guys like Sammy Watkins if they line him up more at Z, Demarcus Robinson and others, as those guys will pretty much be one-on-one with Dean. While the coverage numbers would indicate otherwise – in part because he draws the easiest assignments – to me he is the weakest link of this secondary and has been highly vulnerable to double-moves. The Chiefs might be burn him once more on Sunday.
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Chiefs – Andrew Wylie & Juan Thornhill

I thought about going Sammy Watkins here for the Chiefs offense, because he hasn’t suited up for them since week 16 and he hasn’t caught at least five passes in a game since week three, but averaged almost 100 receiving yards during last year’s playoff run. And you should also get accustomed with who wears number 48 for them, because Nick Keizer may have only caught six passes through the regular season, but he has become KC’s TE2 on the depth chart, playing just over a quarter of the snaps, and he could have a key role as an extra protector or chipping those edge rushers. Instead, I’m going with KC’s new starter at right tackle, who was slotted in at RG for all but one game so far. With blindside protector Eric Fisher unfortunately tearing his Achilles late in the AFC title game, Mike Remmers – who originally replaced Mitchell Schwartz on the right end of the line – is now switching sides and Andrew Wylie is sliding one spot outside. And he will face a tough task, after only having started one game on the edge against the Saints and now getting a heavy load of Shaq Barrett, who primarily rushed off that side. Let’s see if Wylie has the quickness in his kick-slide to counter Barrett’s speed and if the latter can get him on a dip-maneuver, like he beat Eric Fisher for a strip-sack on when these two teams last met. Steven Wisniewski will step in at Wylie’s original spot, but he has been one of the most dependable veteran linemen of the last decade in my opinion.
Defensively, I’m looking at the guy who missed Kansas City’s Super Bowl run last year, after an excellent rookie campaign. Their secondary was the star of the show against Buffalo, to send them to the Super Bowl, by disrupting route patterns at the line of scrimmage and not allowing receivers to separate late. A big reason they felt comfortable doing that was their safety tandem, with Tyrann Mathieu being in more of a robber role and dropping down in Tampa-2, to go along with the rangy Juan Thornhill, who broke up four passes and nearly picked off two of them. Steve Spagnuolo has those safeties doing a ton of late rotations, bailing Daniel Sorensen out for two-high shells, Honeybadger turning into a freely roaming robber and often times Thornhill ending up as the deep middle safety. As a single-high defender, he makes it almost impossible to push the ball down the hashes and he has the ability to make plays outside numbers. That will be crucial against all the deep balls Tampa Bay attempts and if one of those corners loses Mike Evans or Antonio Brown off the line by lunging in press, he could be the guy who decides if there will be a 40+ yard gain or maybe even an interception, if Brady puts too much air under the ball and tries to give his receiver time to track it. I can’t wait to watch that chess game between the Chiefs’ second-year safety and the ultimate student of the game in Brady, who will try to manipulate him with his eyes and body language, in order to keep the defender away from where he wants to go with the ball.
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Prediction:

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On paper, the Bucs have the better and healthier roster at this moment. You look at the offensive line in particular, where they still have four of their day one starters, while the Chiefs’ only full-time starter at his original position is center Austin Reiter and they will have two guys at those tackle spots, that have barely never played there for Kansas City. In terms of pass-catchers, it’s hard to argue that you could put anybody above the Chiefs group of track stars, but you don’t need a full hand to count off the teams that you would put ahead of the Bucs. There is also a pretty clear advantage on the defensive line for the home team, when you look at them being top three in pressure percentage, while KC is outside the top ten. And while I would give the Chiefs the nod in terms of the back-end, seeing how they have stepped up so far this postseason at full health, the Bucs’ group has made plenty of plays to take them to the Super Bowl and linebacker is not even a competition, watching Devin White and Lavonte David fly around the field. And of course, they have the number one rush defense, while the Chiefs rank 21st, and they are both average at running the ball themselves.
Schematically, Tampa certainly has to make some adjustments, as I have already discussed in length, having solutions for the blitz packages Steve Spagnuolo will throw at them and not allowing the Chiefs two main weapons to beat them. Right now, I give the clear advantage to the reigning champs when it comes to the coaching staffs and as great as Brady has been for two decades now and the how clutch he has been on the game’s biggest stage, we may be witnessing the one guy, who has a chance of dethroning him one day as the GOAT. Spags has a proven track record of success against Brady and I’m sure Andy Reid and Eric Bienemy have been in the lab, cooking up new things to throw at the Bucs defense, figuring out ways to score points all four quarters, but in the end it comes down to Patrick Mahomes being able to make plays nobody else in football can. Shaq Barrett and JPP could have a field day against these two backup tackles and I think Todd Bowles will also have a couple of things up his sleeves that the Chiefs haven’t seen, but last year’s Super Bowl MVP is the ultimate equalizer. He will shake out of a sack and find Kelce for a huge third-down conversion and he will have another like twelve-step drop and fire a deep ball off his back-foot to break Tampa’s neck.
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Chiefs 34 – Bucs 28

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So give me the Chiefs here and I’ll take the chalk with Mahomes earning MVP honors, winning back-to-back titles and setting the foundation for a potential dynasty in Kansas City.
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If you enjoyed this breakdown, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece!
Also make sure to check out my video on the ten biggest questions heading into Super Bowl LV!
submitted by hallach_halil to nfl [link] [comments]

Ranking Sunday's games by watchability

I seem to remember someone doing this a few years back and really enjoying it, so I thought I'd give it a shot with the condensed schedule leaving so many games on the schedule each night. I'm ranking each game in three categories: competitiveness, importance, and style points/storylines (which includes star power, the style of basketball, and any intriguing stories to watch). I'll include a survey at the end where you can predict the winners of each game!
Let me know if this is something you'd like to see again!
10) Milwaukee Bucks (1-1) vs. New York Knicks (0-2) at 7:30 pm EST
Where to Watch: League Pass
Spread: Milwaukee -11
Last Meeting: January 14th, 2020. RJ Barrett drained five threes and Bobby Portis scored 20 off the bench, but the Bucks dominated the Knicks at Fiserv Forum 128-102. The two teams combined for a whopping 79 points in the third quarter.
The Bucks have won their last five meetings with the Knicks, with the last New York win coming in an overtime thriller at the Garden in December of 2018.
Competitiveness: A championship contender that dismantled the Warriors by 40 facing the Knicks on the tail end of a back-to-back. Not much else to say here. 1.5/10
Importance: This game is essentially a scheduled win for the Bucks, and a chance for the Knicks to test their young guys and let them grow up a little. Unfortunate that Obi Toppin will be on the sidelines for this one. 2/10
Style Points: The high-flying Bucks offense has been off to another hot start, topping the 120 point mark in both of their games. The Knicks' young guns have shown promise and made so flashy plays, but they also turn the ball over a lot. Neither team tends to foul a lot or shoot a ton of free throws, which will help game flow.
Some might keep an eye on Giannis' free throw shooting, but the real story to watch is RJ Barrett's three point accuracy. He lit it up from distance against Indiana, but struggled mightily against Philly. Can he take a step forward in that department this season?
Bonus points for the MSG crew calling this game. 6/10
Overall Rating: 3/10
9) Brooklyn Nets (2-0) vs. Charlotte Hornets (0-2) at 7:00 pm EST
Where to Watch: NBA TV
Spread: Brooklyn -7.5
Last Meeting: February 22nd, 2020. The Nets used a third quarter explosion to turn a comfortable win into a rout as they won 115-86. Luwawu-Cabarrot led the team in scoring with 21, while Garrett Temple of all people snagged eleven boards.
Competitiveness: The Nets have steamrolled over their competition so far, blowing out the Warriors and Celtics by 20+ points. The Hornets have struggled with two losses to non-contenders, and come into this game on the wrong end of a back-to-back. 1.5/10
Importance: A contending Nets team cannot afford to drop games like this one, especially in the early part of the season when there are so many eyeballs on KD and Kyrie. The Hornets could really use a positive performance to get their season headed in the right direction. 4/10
Style Points: The Nets have stars all over the court and have looked like a juggernaut early this season, making them one of the most intriguing teams to watch, and a fun one too, as they've played fast and made lots of threes. Charlotte ranked last in pace of play last season but seems to be trying to pick things up. You'll get the Charlotte crew for this game on NBA TV, and they call a fun game.
Terry Rozier and Gordon Hayward are two guys to pay attention to- Rozier dropped 42 on a Cavs team that sucks at defending point guards. Is he headed for a breakout season? Hayward was shut down by the Thunder last night and will look to get things going. Plus LaMelo Ball! 8/10
Overall: 4.4/10
8) Golden State Warriors (0-2) vs. Chicago Bulls (0-2) at 8:00 pm EST
Where to Watch: League Pass
Spread: Golden State -2.5
Last Meeting: December 6th, 2019. Glenn Robinson III made the go-ahead layup with a minute left and a very different looking Warriors team beat the Bulls 100-98 in Chicago. Denzel Valentine was ejected in the third quarter for yelling at the Warriors' bench.
Competitiveness: The Warriors have been blown out by two great teams so far. The Bulls have been blown out by two mediocre teams and just played a deflating contest against the Pacers last night. 4.5/10
Importance: Both teams could really use their first win of the season. The Warriors cannot afford to lose to teams like the Bulls if they're going to contend for the playoffs. This probably still figures as a matchup of two non-contenders, though. 5.5/10
Style Points: The Bulls have lots of exciting young players, but they seem turnover-prone and have struggled to score. Neither team has been able to stop literally anyone on defense so far (lol thanks Golden State for taking Wiggins), so there's a chance this turns into one of those ridiculous shootouts where both teams top 70 in the first half.
Patrick Williams looked good in his first game against the Hawks, but the Pacers were able to shut him down. Watching him adjust to the breakneck pace of games and the new level of competition will be interesting. The Warriors will need to find other sources of offense besides Curry and Wiseman, and this game is a perfect chance for them to do so. Definitely opt for the Chicago broadcast if you tune in. 4.5/10
Overall: 4.8/10
** 7)Philadelphia 76ers (2-0) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (2-0) at 7:30 pm EST**
Where to Watch: League Pass
Spread: Philadelphia -6
Last Meeting: February 26th, 2020. The Sixers had to play most of the game without their two best players as Joel Embiid left in the first quarter with a sprained shoulder. The Cavs, then the worst team in the East, led the entire way and won 108-94.
Competitiveness: The Cavs look like a much better team this year as Sexton has another year under his belt and they have Drummond underneath. There's a long way to go to challenge the Sixers, though, and they played an exhausting two-overtime trench war with the Pistons last night while Philly coasted to an easy win over the Knicks. 5/10
Importance: Definitely a litmus test game for the Cavs- can they hang with Philly and prove that they can be that dangerous team no one wants to face in the east play-in tournament? The 76ers might be looking past this game as they have a big clash with Tampa Bay coming up on Tuesday. 4/10
Style Points: This game gives us two matchups between stars. Joel Embiid has been on a mission to start this season, following up his 29/14 against Washington with a 27/10 against the Knicks. His matchup with Andre Drummond will be one to watch. At point guard, Simmons-Sexton could be an even more exciting face-off. The Cavs have played a more fun style of basketball this season, using Sexton to ignite a high pressure defense that stole a win in Detroit. That double-overtime win might prove costly tonight, though, when they run out of gas against a deeper and more talented Sixers team. Bonus points for the Cavs having that really fun color guy, I guess. 6.75/10
Overall: 5.25/10
6) Minnesota Timberwolves (2-0) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (1-1) at 10:00 pm EST
Where to watch: NBA TV
Spread: Los Angeles -11
Last Meeting: December 8th, 2019. AD dropped half a hundred and LeBron put up 32 and thirteen assists as the Lakers won a 142-125 slugfest. The Wolves hung around and trailed by only seven after three quarters before LA pulled away.
Competitiveness: The Wolves are off to a surprising 2-0 start, including an impressive win in Utah last night. Most would write this off as a scheduled loss, though, with a back-to-back against the defending champs and KAT getting dinged up at the end of the Jazz game. Still, it will be interesting to see how this new-look Wolves team trades punches with AD and Bron in the first half. 6/10
Importance: The Lakers seem to finally be settling into the new season after a disappointing showing on opening night, and will be looking for another statement win. Some Wolves fans have speculated that they will rest KAT after his injury scare tonight. I'd expect him to play, but no one in Minnesota thinks they will win this game. 3/10
Style Points: Anthony Edwards going up against two of the best in the game? DLo back in LA? Upstarts against the defending champs? Top notch storylines for this game, where the first half will be a good litmus test for Minnesota, before fatigue probably sets in for guys like Edwards and Culver and the game gets pretty ugly.
Minnesota's defense looks much improved this season, and their explosive bench can keep this game fun. And you know what you're getting with the Lakers' stars. Unfortunately the NBA TV rights to this game mean most fans will get the LA crew and miss out on the top notch Fox Sports North announcers. 8/10
Overall: 5.6/10
5) San Antonio Spurs (2-0) vs. New Orleans Pelicans (1-1) at 7:00 pm EST
Where to Watch: League Pass
Spread: New Orleans -5
Last Meeting: August 9th, 2020. The Spurs and Pels faced off for a high-scoring showdown in the bubble that saw the two teams combined for 77 fourth quarter points. JJ Redick went off and hit eight threes and Zion chipped in 25, but the rest of their teammates shit the bed and the Spurs won 122-113.
Competitiveness: The Spurs are off to a fast start, most recently squeaking out an impressive win over the Raptors last night. The Pelicans have produced mixed results, but beat Tampa by a more impressive margin and have an extra day of rest. Expect a close one early, with New Orleans having a sizeable edge late. 6.5/10
Importance: Both teams figure to be in the hunt for the final playoff spots and will see each other plenty this season as they are both in the same division. I doubt the Spurs would sweat this B2B loss too much, though. 7/10
Style Points: Zion put up a highlight-worthy 32 and 14 on Christmas Day against the Heat, and the Pels look like a new team on defense, making them one of the most interesting squads to watch this year. Ingram, Redick, Hart, and Lonzo can combine for an offensive explosion at any time. The Spurs can play kind of a bland style sometimes, especially with 35 year old LaMarcus Aldridge playing on a back-to-back. Dejounte Murray, who just posted his first career triple double and looks much improved this season, will be an interesting to player to watch today. This one feels like it could be a snooze-fest or a barn-burner, with nothing in between. 6.75/10
Overall: 6.7/10
4) Boston Celtics (1-1) vs. Indiana Pacers (2-0) at 8:00 pm EST
Where to Watch: League Pass
Spread: Boston -2.5
Last Meeting: Tuesday March 10th, 2020. The Celtics were the last team the Pacers faced before Miss Rona stepped in and put a stop to the basketball for awhile. Marcus Smart made the go-ahead layup to rescue Boston in the final minute after they blew a 19 point lead, and they held on to win 114-111. Sabonis posted a 28-9-8 night for Indiana.
Competitiveness: The Celtics have the rest advantage, as they got the night off to lick their wounds after a Christmas Night Stomping at the hands of KD and Kyrie, while the Pacers had to take the floor last night and beat up on the Bulls. The Pacers figure to be in the middle of the playoff pack, while the Celtics would like to challenge the Bucks and Nets at the top, and this game will be a huge early measuring stick for both teams. The Pacers will have home floor, which makes this anyone's game. 8/10
Importance: It's never too early to have a big game for playoff seeding! The Celtics will be anxious to prove that their opening game win against Milwaukee was no fluke, while the Pacers need to show us that they can beat someone better than the Knicks and Bulls. 7.5/10
Style Points: This is where this game kind of falls short. Tatum, Kemba, Sabonis, Brown, and others all provide lots of star power, but aren't the big names featured elsewhere on this list, and both teams tend to play slower, more defensive-oriented basketball. The Celtics' thumping at the hands of the Nets is more of a story for Brooklyn than for Boston, and Indiana has maybe been the playoff team that jumped off the page less than anyone else so far. Add in a game that's only broadcast locally and that overlaps with every other game but two and this game takes a bump in a packed Sunday night slate.
Still, this should be a very good game between two playoff teams, and a fun one to tune in for down the stretch if the Pacers keep it close. 5.5/10
Overall: 7/10
T-2) Orlando Magic (2-0) vs. Washington Wizards (0-2) at 7:00 pm EST
Where to Watch: League Pass
Spread: Washington -1.5
Last Meeting: Last night! The Magic and Wizards squared off for their first of back-to-back games, which was an exciting back-and-forth contest. The Magic had the edge on the glass for much of the game, which only intensified late as they pulled away and the Wizards started pressing and taking bad shots. Beal went off for 39 points while Westbrook posted a triple-double, proving that they can in fact play together just fine.
Competitiveness: Last night's game was a see-sawing battle for most of the evening. Orlando looks like the better team and one of the more improved squads in the East, if their win against Miami is any indication. Still, beating a team on their home floor twice in a row is extraordinarily difficult, and the Wizards get to regroup and see if they can fix their rebounding woes against the same team. Expect another entertaining toss-up!9/10
Importance: Both teams are in roughly the same boat: improved squads who will likely find themselves sitting on the edge of the Eastern Conference playoff field. They won't see each other again in the first half of the season, and to pick up a quick two games on their competition would be an enormous boost for Orlando. 7.5/10
Style Points: The Wizards have been playing a fun new style with Russ and Bradley Beal sharing the load on offense, and early speculation about how the pair will get along on the court has been promising. The Magic get the job done with comparatively little star power, but Vucevic has always been one of the more underrated players in the league and deserves some recognition. Terrence Ross and Davis Bertans will be other players to keep an eye on- Ross has been extremely hot offensively in his first two games, while Bertans is a streaky shooter who can be the key to Washington winning or losing.
Perhaps the most interesting storyline, though, is the back-to-back baseball-style two game series. College leagues are trying this out across the country and we've seen in leagues like the MAAC, Mountain West, and others how hard it is for superior teams to beat the same team on consecutive nights. We've also gotten a glimpse of this in the NBA preseason. This time, the teams are very evenly matched. How will the Wizards adjust tonight? What effect will the wonky scheduling have? 8/10
Overall: 8.2/10
T-2) Dallas Mavericks (0-2) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (2-0) at 3:30 pm EST
Where to Watch: NBA TV
Spread: Los Angeles -5
Last Meeting: August 30th, 2020. The Clippers knocked the Mavs out of the first round of the playoffs, winning Game 6 after the game was moved back due to the player strike. Doncic dropped 38 and Dorian Finney-Smith chipped in 16, but only one other Dallas played cracked double digits. L.A. moved on to the next round where they cruised through the first four games against the Nuggets and...oh wait hahahahahahahahahaha.
Competitiveness: The Mavs need to get their shit together. They posted a close opening night loss against the Suns and then got their doors kicked in by the Lakers... neither of those are alarming results, but they're not the mark of a playoff team. The Clippers are angry at the way last season ended, ready to take it out on the league, and they've looked like a juggernaut with Nic Batum in their lineup, putting up convincing wins over the other top two teams in the West. Doncic can keep any game close, but he needs his teammates to carry some of the load, and the Clippers are still the clear favourites here. 6.5/10
Importance: Dallas needs to show that they can beat playoff teams, as their schedule for the next few weeks doesn't get any easier after tonight. They'll face the Heat, Rockets, Magic, Nuggets, and Pelicans. They'll have to figure out who their second and third best scoring options are in the process. Both teams will be looking for a statement win on a national stage- they're the only teams playing in the afternoon tomorrow and get a national broadcast on NBA TV. 8/10
Style Points: Kawhi... Luka... PG13.... could you really get any more star power? The Mavs looking for revenge on the team that knocked them out of the playoffs by beating them in a Sunday Showcase game (albeit on NBA TV) in their house provides a great story to go along with the stars. The Clippers have been red hot from three point range to start the season, and a Mavs defense that allowed 138 points to the Lakers will probably provide plenty of opportunities for more fireworks. If not for the potential of a lopsided final score, this would be the #1 game of the day. Tune into this instead of football on a relatively light NFL day. 10/10
Overall: 8.2/10
1) Phoenix Suns (1-1) vs. Sacramento Kings (2-0) at 9:00 pm EST
Where to Watch: League Pass
Spread: Phoenix -3.5
Last Meeting: Last night! Sacramento jumped out to a 15-2 lead, but the Suns almost immediately cut that in half, and tied the game early in the third quarter. The teams traded baskets for much of the second half, with DeAaron Fox and Buddy Hield carrying the offensive load for the Kings, who held on to win thanks to some timely offensive rebounding from Richaun Holmes.
Competitiveness: Aside from the early flurry from the Kings, these teams were as evenly matched as they come, trading punches for the entire second half. The Suns probably won't shoot 11-44 from three point range again tonight, and the Kings will probably take better care of the basketball. Regardless, we're in for a fascinating rematch of two Western Conference playoff hopefuls. 10/10
Importance: Both the Suns and the Kings are exciting young teams with opportunities to improve on last season, and both figure to end up in that 7-10 seed range in the Western Conference. These two teams won't see each other again in the first half of the season, and the Suns cannot afford to drop back-to-back contests against one of their competitors for the last couple of playoff spots. The Kings, meanwhile, were largely overlooked by fans and writers heading into the season and look poised to outperform expectations. Going 3-0 to start the season would do a lot to quiet the doubters. Regardless, this two game series will likely end up mattering down the road. 8/10
Style Points: The Suns were the talk of the NBA Bubble in August and have continued turning heads with their opening night win against the Mavs. Chris Paul's presence at point guard allows them to run a better offense than "just let Devin Booker chuck as many threes as he wants and hope Ayton rebounds enough to let us eke out a close win". They're still a fun, up-tempo team that shoots lots of threes, and finally play some good defense if that's your thing too. Sacramento announced themselves as a team not to be slept on with their opening night win against the Nuggets (thanks Will Barton), and the trend continued last night. They've attempted the fewest threes of any team through two games this year, and their game plan of Fox driving and everyone crashing the glass gives us an intriguing contrast of styles.
Like I mentioned for the Wizards game, the baseball-style series also presents us with interesting questions to answer in this game (how will the Suns adjust on the glass? can the Kings beat the same team twice in a row?), and a nerve-wracking two games between two teams who are very close in talent level and playoff hopes. Perhaps most importantly, Phoenix's broadcast is the only one on League Pass so far that has figured out their on-court audio and actually sounds normal. Keep that one in mind! 8/10
Overall: 8.7/10
I also made a Google Form where you can pick all the winners of today's games... I'll link that below. Thought it would be cool to see how Reddit does predicting the winners. I'll close the form at 3:30 when the Mavs and Clips tip off. I'll try to pare this down length-wise if and when I do this again. Thanks for reading!
Pick the winners here!
submitted by rally_parakeet to nba [link] [comments]

[OC] Leftwich Unlocks Offense, Brady Remains Surgical In 17 Pt Comeback - Week 15 Offensive Breakdown

Whew, what a win!
I'm going to review every offensive drive and include a ton of gifs for those who care to go through as many plays as possible. For everyone else, I’ll begin with a summary, and I hope you enjoy clicking through the few plays you’re interested in.
 
Summary
 
 
1st Possession
 
1st & 10: good start with an easy play taking advantage of off coverage. Nice block by Godwin, too
2nd & 4: Falcons come out in cover 3 and Bucs counter perfectly with a flood concept. Nice separation from Brate againt a LB.
1st & 10: Falcons are playing cover 1 robber with tight coverage. Brady reads the HOSS concept, which is just a hitch/seam combination, on the left. In what has been a theme in this offence, Godwin doesn't adjust his route to an outside release. Against single high man coverage, ideally Godwin would have released outside and pushed up the sideline to create separation from the middle safety. I think these issues come from how these concepts are taught/coached, not because players aren't reading things right. Brady reads the fade then throws it away. He could've potentially tossed it up to Evans, but the coverage is there and the risk reward is terrible on this play (i.e. throwing a jump ball where you either gain 5 yards or get picked). I also have no idea what the Bucs pre snap check system is like, but it would be nice if they could get to a rub combination against this man look where both corners are lined up on the same level.
2nd & 10: it's confusing how poorly the Bucs have done on these HB screens throughout the season. The DB reads this perfectly and blows up the play. This is the play that killed the drive, despite strong execution before this.
3rd & 18: 3 man rush with all coverage players at the sticks. Easy screen pass to improve field position.
 
2nd Possession
 
1st & 10: Bucs come out with six offensive linemen and one tight end creating a loaded box. Why create this look to run on 1st down? Why play this personnel package? I'd understand it on 2nd & short where you only need a short gain and can run or use play action. But, why not play 11 personnel and spread it out to create lighter boxes, where you can run, pass, play fake, whatever? Unsurprisingly, the run up the gut gains just 1 yard.
2nd & 9: Falcons show a single high look pre snap that rotates into a 2 high zone (middle field open) post snap. Brady reads this well and knows that the inside player on the snag route will be open. This spacing concept has been a staple in this Bucs offence.
3rd & 1: outside pitch for 2 yards
1st & 10: 1 yard run up the middle. There's nothing there.
2nd & 9: same spacing concept again. Falcons play a single high zone this time (middle field closed), and consequently, Brady attacks outside. It only gained 2 yards, but it's not a bad idea to give Scotty an opportunity in space outside to make a play.
3rd & 7: Falcons play a single high man blitz. Nice pass protection and good pick up by McCoy. AB was the best option on this vs this look, but the coverage was great so Brady throws it low and away. Either AB makes a play or no one gets it. Give credit to the Falcons for this one.
 
3rd Possession
 
1st & 10: 6 offensive linemen again. Bus call play action against this zone blitz, which should be a favourable situation. However, Josh Wells gets destroyed on the offensive line and gives the offence no chance on this play. Credit to Fournette for a good block.
2nd & 10: A simple but effective play from the Bucs that they use a lot where they have double slants on one side and a slant/flat combination on the other. In general, the plan here is to use the double slants vs 2 high looks and to use the slant/flat combo against 1 high looks. The Falcons show single high pre before rotating into a cover 2 man post, so Brady attacks inside. Great catch and separation by Evans.
3rd & 3: terrible pass protection against a 4 man rush.
 
4th Possession
 
1st & 10: Run for 3 yards. Tight formation, loaded box. Again, why create this look?
2nd & 7: single high zone blitz from the Falcons. Great hot route execution here between Brady and Gronk. Gronk gets his head around quick on the flat route for an easy gain of 7.
1st & 10: 11 personnel and play action? Oh my! Excellent design and call. This play not working is solely on Brady. This is an easy throw.
2nd & 10: Bucs have been using this 3x1 a lot lately to isolate either Evans or Gronk. I asked Jon Ledyard about this during Sunday’s Pewter Report podcast, and he said this was frequently used last season but had been reduced this year as Evans played more snaps from the slot. With AB and Godwin being better inside receivers, I like the idea of these formations. Brady throws a beautiful pass and puts it right on Evans’ face on this out route. This is a much more difficult throw than the previous play, and you can't make this throw without a strong arm.
1st & 10: Another play action pass where the offensive line gives them no chance. Pass pro HAS to be better, but I'm liking the play calling. This is a nit pick, but we see a few of these "soft" fakes throughout the game. I'd rather Brady/the play design create a harder fake, but, I'm happy to take it.
2nd & 10: I'm normally not a fan of runs on 2nd and long, but I like what Leftwich did here. They spread it out with 11 personnel to create a light box and then call a draw play. There's a hole here, and the situation created is relatively favourable (this is what I want them to do more on 1st down runs!). Vaughn just falls down from light contact, and that's not on the play callers.
3rd & 9: the blitz pick up is just terrible here. Falcons show man pre snap before rotating to a zone coverage. Brady could've gotten the ball to Evans for a 1st down if the pass protection didn't give a literal free path for the rusher to the QB.
 
5th Possession
 
Kneel down
 
End of 1st Half
 
6th Possession
 
1st & 10: beautiful play action design against the Falcons cover 1 robber. The LB bites on the play fake which creates a huge opening over the middle for an easy pass to AB for 20 yards. Great stuff.
1st & 10: another play action! Nice design. Brady throws off a poor platform, and the throw was mediocre, but Evans needs to complete this catch.
2nd & 10: Falcons again playing cover 1 robber. The LB brackets Gronk which creates a window for a pass to Brate. Solid execution all around.
1st & 10: this is obviously a good result for a 9 yard gain, but I question the process. There's not a great opportunity/gap here, and you can't expect a huge push like this every time. By no means am I saying never run on 1st down, but I don't think the rush frequency needs to be anywhere near as high as coaches think it does in order for defences to respect the run and for play action to work. What's the right frequency? No one knows right now.
2nd & 1: solid run up the middle in a short yardage situation to pick up the first.
1st & 10: play action with a double post concept against 2 high man coverage, which is a great schematic matchup for the Bucs. This is one of the few coverages against which play action does nothing, but I like keeping the fake because you don't know for sure that it's not a disguised zone, or even cover 1 man (against which you can make the LB bite). Awesome throw and catch. Nice pass protection from Fournette, too.
1st & Goal: easy TD on the run
 
7th Possession
 
1st & 10: 3 man route concept off of play action against the Falcons zone. Simply need better pass protection here. Brady senses pressure and throws the ball away at Gronk's feet. With better protection, he might've been able to work his read over to Godwin.
2nd & 10: the Bucs, again, call the double slant and slant/flat combination. This time the Falcons are playing single high man, so Brady works the slant/flat. Again, a simple, easy play with answers built-in. Fournette continues to protect well.
3rd & 5: Falcons bring a 3 man rush and play single high man with two buzz defenders. The Bucs dial up the mesh concept. The press coverage on Evans had the potential to disrupt this play, but he does an excellent job of getting into his route anyway. This particular situation is one where at-the-snap motion can be helpful in creating a free release.
1st & 10: another play action call, and again against zone. Nice design with answers built-in for a variety of looks. Fournette has a ton of space, so I like Brady's decision to take the easy play. Fournette turns a solid play into a very good play with his play after the catch. It's often a good idea to simply give your players a chance in space where the risk is low but the reward can be high, especially on early downs. Think back to the Miller play early in the game that only went for 2 yards. Good process will have good results over the long run.
1st & 10: 7 man box against 6 blockers. How do you expect this run to go?
2nd & 10: the Bucs seem to use this exact WR screen play every game, and the Falcons were prepared. However, Brady and Evans make an off-script play. Great job by Evans breaking off his route to create a huge opening for Brady. Maybe this is a sign of the chemistry and communication improving?
1st & Goal: this looks like zone on the strong side and man on the weak side? Either way, the Falcons cover well. Brady throws it low and away against tight coverage.
2nd & Goal: beautiful RPO design against this defensive look where one DB is playing off. The only thing I would consider changing is having Evans stem vertically so that the inside corner can't possibly make a play on the ball.
 
8th Possession
 
1st & 10: play action into HB screen. This can be a nice play, but the blocking execution must improve! Yes, you're meant to let rushers pass you as an offensive lineman, but you have to give them a bump.
2nd & 10: we see 3x1 once again to isolate Gronk. The Falcons play cover 2 man, so Brady works the 1 on 1. Here's another situation, where likely by design, Godwin doesn't adjust his route in a way that would be favourable against the given coverage. Godwin sits, which would be great against zone, but the play would be more effective if he kept running horizontally, instead, against man. This is an improvement opportunity for this staff; I'd wager Godwin is simply executing this play the way he's been told to. What’s confusing is that these are super standard route adjustments, and its weird to watch an NFL team not make them.
1st & 10: solid play action design. The FS sits for a moment, and that's why Brady decides to attack deep on the post route. However, Johnson just can't separate enough. I don't understand why he's even out there, as this is the exact type of play where Miller excels! Fournette was also wide open on this play. But, given what the coverage dictated, Brady made the right play. You can't expect him to continue to a later read if the earlier read dictated a pass target.
2nd & 10: the Bucs dial up a post wheel out combination on the strong side against the Falcons' single high zone defence. This is a great situation that created a three-attackers-against-two-defenders situation.
1st & 10: nice outcome with Evans on a comeback route against tight man coverage. This play drew two flags for a big gain.
1st & 10: another easy play in space to Fournette against cover 1 man. If the RBs can be consistent with their catching ability, that'd be a huge plus for this team as these plays are there for the taking when the coverage is right.
1st & 10: easy quick out against off coverage. Continuing to take what the defence is giving.
1st & Goal: good play fake. Defender had to grab Gronk to stop him, and this drew a flag.
1st & Goal: solid run to finish the drive
 
9th Possession
 
1st & 10: very weird play on this 3 man route play action. The ball should've probably been caught, but the throw wasn't great, either.
2nd & 10: another solid play call where Brady has answers against various coverages. The throw to McCoy was the correct decision against this cover 3 zone. I'd much rather see McCoy take whatever yards he can up the sideline instead of trying to move east/west.
3rd & 5: this WR screen call might have been iffy against this tight pre snap look. However, the Falcons send a corner blitz which ended up working perfectly for the Bucs on this play call.
1st & 10: Falcons show cover 3 pre snap but rotate into cover 2 post. Good read by Brady to see this and find the inside sit route to Brate that wouldn't have been open against cover 3.
2nd & 1: same play as the one that opened the game. It's riskier here as there's a corner at the LOS who could potentially make a play. I'd rather just see a run or a play action for an easy play, instead. I don’t love the risk/reward of this play against this defensive look.
1st & 10: Gronk was Brady's 3rd read on this play. It looks like Brady just throws it away high. This was the play after which Brady was visibly frustrated and slamming his hands against his helmet. My guess is this wasn't because he missed the throw (the throwaway looks intentional), but because he realized he had Fournette wide open as the check down.
2nd & 10: decent play against very soft man coverage. Another low risk but high potential reward play if Miller can make a man miss. I’m a fan of this approach philosophically in the pass game.
3rd & 6: looks like there's a concept to beat 2 high on the left, and a concept to beat 1 high on the right. I'm surprised Brady stayed on the left so long. Either way, he got to Gronk in time on the right. However, Gronk fell at the top of his route. Oh well. Nice play call, though.
 
10th Possession
 
1st & 10: the Falcons disguise coverage here beautifully. Before the gif began, the Bucs motioned Fournette, too, who had a linebacker follow him. The Falcons follow two motions and show cover 1 man pre and rotate into a cover 2 zone post. Brady reads it well, anyway, and finds Brate. This type of high-level quarterbacking is easily missed when watching the TV broadcast. It seems like a routine play for a medium gain, but the recognition and processing by Brady is fantastic. These disguises at the NFL level are incredibly difficult to deal with. Another solid play design, too, that gives Brady multiple answers depending on the coverage. If it were cover 1 man, Brady likely would have worked the right side of the field.
1st & 10: unsuccessful run
2nd & 9: once again punishing soft coverage.
1st & 10: solid design against this defence with verticals outside, and (likely) an option route for Godwin in the post. Against single high, like this, he runs a dig route. Against two high he would've run a post. The safety bites down on the dig and leaves AB wide open against his one on one matchup. There was a miscommunication between the DBs at the snap that actually left Godwin wide open. It's possible that this was because the Bucs motioned Godwin from out wide into the slot (forcing last second defensive communication). Brady had two great options, and he happened to pick the touchdown.
 
11th Possession:
1st & 10: run for 2 yards
2nd & 8: good play action design that got AB open, but the protection was terrible.
3rd & 16: screen pass to McCoy against off coverage to improve field position
 
12th Possession:
 
Runs for 1st down + kneel down
 
I saw some, but not too many, people complaining about Brady starting slow. The tape really doesn't back that up. He had the one miss to Godwin early that ended up being inconsequential given the absolute strike to Evans on the next play. I don't believe there's any sort of Brady issue early in the games, though he has had a couple of slow starts. I think that's seeing a small sample of results, which happen to form what looks like a pattern, and then assigning a narrative without understanding the why (which has to be analyzed on a play-by-play basis; it's never as simple as "Brady starts slow... just because"). This type of thinking persists everywhere, including in other aspects of the game and outside of football entirely, but I digress.
This was the most New England-like this offence has looked. This has nothing to do with some "secret New England plays", and everything to do with philosophically committing to play action and taking easy plays that the defensive coverage gives you. I don't think there was a single new play called. The difference was early down passing and not forcing plays against unfavourable looks. I really hope this what the team continues to look like going forward, minus the pass protection. There's a chance that the quick pass heavy game plan was a function of the Falcons having a terrible pass defence, RoJo being out, and playing from a deficit. If that's not the case, and if this is the trend moving forward, there's a lot to be optimistic about on offence.
submitted by HossYJuke to buccaneers [link] [comments]

Notes and Highlights of Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear’s Live Update February 9, 2021

Notes and Highlights of Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear’s Live Update February 9, 2021
Notes by mr_tyler_durden and Daily Update Team
Watch here:
Headlines
  1. Rocky and Gov visited 3 local businesses, read and see all about them below: AppHarvest, Rajant Communications, and Kentucky Fresh Harvest.
Full Notes
(continued in stickied comment)
submitted by mr_tyler_durden to Coronavirus_KY [link] [comments]

V1per's Week 16 Survivor/Eliminator Pick

Great week last week. Ravens crushed Jacksonville while The Jets upset a very popular Rams pick. We have 2 weeks standing between us and a perfect season now. Unfortunately this week is going to be a bit tighter than we would like.
I don't care about stupid math stuff, just give me the team to pick
Houston Texans. Though the Chicago Bears are also very reasonable. The current spreads for each game is -8 and -7.5. I would definitely keep an eye on these lines and just take whichever one is larger on Sunday.
Though the Texans lost last week they were tied against a very good Colts team late in the game. On the flip side, Cincinnati did just upset Pittsburgh, though they also got blown out by the Cowboys just a week earlier.
I definitely do not feel super comfortable this week, but it's what we have left to work with.
​
Rank Team P(Win Week) P(Win Out) E(Wins)
1 HOU 77% 68.6% 16.66
2 CHI 75% 66.8% 16.64
3 ARI 68% 60.5% 16.57
4 WSH 58% 51.6% 16.47
​
Sunday Update
​
Rank Team P(Win Week) P(Win Out) E(Wins)
1 CHI 77% 68.6% 16.66
2 HOU 75% 66.8% 16.64
3 PHI 60% 53.4% 16.49
4 WSH 53% 47.2% 16.42
Looks like the lines on CHI/HOU have flipped so CHI is now the mathematically better choice.
The two are still so close that if you want to go with HOU instead for personal reasons I wouldn't hesitate.
I think the news yesterday of James Robinson being out today cemented my decision to go with CHI.
In other news the CLE line dropped like a rock this morning from over 10 to under 7. If you still have them available I would probably switch at this point to CHI or HOU.
​
Season So Far
15 - 0. Just 2 games left. Right now we have IND saved for next week who should be the biggest favorite on the week. Just have to sweat this one out first.
For those of you who have already won, congrats!. For those of you still battling, good luck!
​
Rest of Season Outlook
​
Week Team Opp P(Win)
1 BUF NYJ 100%
2 TB CAR 100%
3 CLE WSH 100%
4 LAR NYG 100%
5 NO LAC 100%
6 MIA NYJ 100%
7 LAC JAX 100%
8 KC NYJ 100%
9 NE NYJ 100%
10 GB JAX 100%
11 PIT @JAX 100%
12 NYG @CIN 100%
13 MIN JAX 100%
14 SEA NYJ 100%
15 BAL JAX 100%
16 HOU CIN 77%
17 IND JAX 89%
​
Nerdy Math Stuff
P(Win Out) = 68.6% (+7.5pp)
E(Wins) = 16.66 (+0.11)
​
Methodology
I get team win percentages from 538 for every game in the entire season. I update probabilities for the current week based on Vegas betting lines to better take into account current team situations that 538's computer models can't account for.
With all of these values, I run something called the Hungarian Algorithm which solves the best possible choices to maximize the total win percentage values. This makes sure to use each team when it's optimal to do so.
The method used for this maximizes your chance of making it through the whole season undefeated. This is ideal if you are in a very large (70+ person) league. If however, you are in a small league that is unlikely to have everyone make it to the end and the last person standing is the winner, than the above picks will be less than ideal. If you're in one of these smaller leagues, download the file below, enter your league size and get the team list specifically for your league.
Download
Mediafire
I've tried to take into account every rule-set possible, but if you have a funky league rule that the workbook doesn't seem to work for let me know and I'll see if I can add the feature.
submitted by V1per41 to fantasyfootball [link] [comments]

[Game Preview] Week 12 - Philadelphia Eagles(3-6-1) vs Seattle Seahawks (7-3)

Philadelphia Eagles (3-6-1) vs Seattle Seahawks(7-3)
Another week has passed and the Eagles notched another in the loss column, the saving grace now is after the Football Team won on Thanksgiving the Eagles are no longer kings of shit mountain. That title rests with Washington, though it could end up in the hands of the Giants by the team the Eagles kickoff on Monday night. Pathetically they could take that title back with a win over the Seahawks, though that appears to be unlikely. The Seahawks pack a potent offense led by All-Pro QB Russel Wilson who has made Jim Schwartz is bitch the past 4 years. What this Eagles team has in talent it completely lacks in discipline, heart and accountability which rests entirely on this coaching staff which repeatedly fails to get this team motivated and put them in the best position to win football games. Seattle has one of the worst defenses in the league especially against the pass, however I doubt Doug Pederson will come up with a game plan to exploit it, especially with Carson Wentz struggling to find any rhythm this season and leading the league in all the wrong categories. Both the coach and the QB will need to find some of that magic from the 2017 season if they have any hope of beating this tough Seahawks team Monday night.
General Information
Posting Rules and Guidelines
Remember to Join us on Discord during the game!
New to the Eagles? Take a look at our New Fan Page!
Score Prediction Contest
Date
Monday, November 30th, 2020
Game Time Game Location
8:15 PM - Eastern Lincoln Financial Field
7:15 PM - Central 1020 Pattison Ave
6:15 PM - Mountain Philadelphia, PA 19148
5:15 PM - Pacific Wikipedia - Map
Weather Forecast
Stadium Type: Open Air
Surface: Grass
Temperature: 64°F
Feels Like: 64°F
Forecast: Possible Light Rain. Rain throughout the day.
Chance of Precipitation: 56%
Cloud Coverage: 97%
Wind: South 13 MPH
Betting Odds
Oddsshark Information
Favorite/Opening Line: Seattle -5.5
OveUnder: 49
Record VS. Spread: Eagles 3-7, Seahawks 6-4
Where to Watch on TV
ESPN will broadcast Monday’s game to a national audience. Steve Levy will handle play-by-play duties and Brian Griese will provide analysis.
Week 12 TV Map
Radio Streams
List of Eagles Radio network member stations with internet broadcast availability
Radio.com 94.1 Desktop Streaming
Listen to Merrill Reese and Mike Quick
Calling the game on 94WIP and the Eagles Radio Network will be Merrill Reese, the NFL’s longest-tenured play-by-play announcer (44th season). Joining Reese in the radio booth will be former Eagles All-Pro wide receiver Mike Quick, while Howard Eskin will report from the sidelines.
Location Station Frequency
Philadelphia, PA WIP-FM 94.1 FM and 610 AM
Allentown, PA WCTO-FM 96.1 FM
Atlantic City/South Jersey WENJ-FM 97.3 FM
Levittown, PA WBCB-AM 1490 AM
Northumberland, PA WEGH-FM 107.3 FM
Pottsville, PA WPPA-AM 1360 AM
Reading, PA WEEU-AM 830 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WAFL-FM 97.7 FM
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA WEJL-FM 96.1 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WAFL-FM 97.7 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WEJL-AM 630 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WBAX-AM 1240 AM
Williamsport, PA WBZD-FM 93.3 FM
Wilmington, DE WDEL-FM/AM 101.7 FM
York/LancasteHarrisburg, PA WSOX-FM 96.1 FM
Philadelphia Spanish Radio
Rickie Ricardo and Bill Kulik will handle the broadcast in Spanish on Mega 105.7 FM in Philadelphia and the Eagles Spanish Radio Network.
Location Station Frequency
Philadelphia, PA LA MEGA 105.7 FM
Allentown, PA WSAN 1470 AM
Atlantic City, NJ WIBG 1020 AM; 101.3 FM
Seahawks Radio
Seahawks Radio Network Steve Raible returns for his 38th season in the radio booth, his 15th as the play-by-play announcer and “Voice of the Seahawks” after 22 seasons as the Seahawks analyst. Former Seahawks LB Dave Wyman will provide color commentary.
National Radio
Westwood One will broadcast the game to a national audience with Kevin Harlan on play-by-play and Ron Jaworski providing analysis.
Satellite Radio
Station Eagles Channel Seahawks Channel
Sirius Radio SIRI 83 SIRI 81
XM Radio XM 225 XM 226
Sirius XM Radio SXM 225 4 SXM 226
Eagles Social Media Seahawks Social Media
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NFC East Standings
NFC EAST Record PCT Home Road Div Conf PF PA Net Pts Streak
Football Team 4-7 .364 3-3 1-4 3-2 3-5 241 243 -2 1W
Eagles 3-6-1 .350 2-2-1 1-4 2-2 3-3 220 254 -34 2L
Giants 3-7 .300 2-3 1-4 3-2 3-6 195 236 -41 2W
Cowboys 3-8 .273 2-4 1-4 1-3 3-6 251 359 -108 1L
Series Information
The Seattle Seahawks lead the Philadelphia Eagles (11-7)
Series History
Head to Head Box Scores
First Game Played
December 12th, 1976 at Veteran's Stadium Philadelphia, PA. Philadelphia Eagles 27 - Seattle Seahawks 10
Points Leader
Seattle Seahawks lead the Philadelphia Eagles (367-327)
Coaches Record
Doug Pederson: 0-4 against the Seahawks
Pete Carroll: 6-1 against Eagles
Coaches Head to Head
Doug Pederson vs Pete Carroll: Carroll leads 4-0
Quarterback Record
Carson Wentz: Against Seahawks: 0-4
Russell Wilson: Against Eagles: 5-0
Quarterbacks Head to Head
Carson Wentz vs Russell Wilson: Wilson leads 4-0
Records per Stadium
Record @ Lincoln Financial Field: Seahawks lead the Eagles: 5-0
Record @ CenturyLink Field: Seahawks lead 3-2
Rankings and Last Meeting Information
AP Pro 32 Ranking
Eagles No. 11 - Seahawks No. 7
Record
Eagles: 3-6-1
Seahawks: 7-3
Last Meeting
Sunday, Nov 24th, 2019
Seahawks 17 – Eagles 9
The Eagles season ended with their first loss at home since Week 12 of the regular season, which was, coincidentally, also a 17–9 home loss to the Seahawks. They failed to score a touchdown for the first time since Week 17 of the 2017 season. Carson Wentz left the game in the first quarter with a concussion following a dirty hit by Jadeveon Clowney, where he led with the crown of his helmet into the back of Carson Wentz’s head when he was already going to the ground. No penalty was called on the play, and Wentz was later ruled out for the game. This was the Eagles' third straight home Wild Card playoff loss.
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Click here to view the Stats Recap
Last 10 Meetings
Date Winner Loser Score
01/05/20 Seahawks Eagles 17-9
11/24/19 Seahawks Eagles 17-9
12/3/17 Seahawks Eagles 24-10
11/20/16 Seahawks Eagles 26-15
12/07/14 Seahawks Eagles 24-14
12/01/11 Seahawks Eagles 31-14
11/02/08 Eagles Seahawks 26-7
12/02/07 Seahawks Eagles 28-24
12/05/05 Seahawks Eagles 42-0
12/08/02 Eagles Seahawks 27-20
09/23/01 Eagles Seahawks 27-3
Injury Reports Depth Charts
Eagles Eagles
Seahawks Seahawks
2012 “Expert” Picks
Week 12 - "Expert" Picks
2020 Team Stats
Eagles Season Stats
Seahawks Season Stats
2020 Stats (Starters/Leaders)
Passing
Name CMP ATT PCT YDS TD INT RAT
Wentz 220 377 58.4% 2326 14 14 73.3
Wilson 256 362 70.7% 2986 30 10 111.5
Rushing
Name ATT YDS YDS/G AVG TD
Sanders 102 585 83.6 5.7 3
Wilson 55 367 36.7 4.7 1
Receiving
Name REC YDS YDS/G AVG TD
Fulgham 31 451 64.4 14.5 4
Metcalf 48 862 86.2 18.0 9
Sacks
Name Sacks Team Total
Graham 7.0 34
Adams 5.5 25
Tackles
Name Total Solo Assist Sacks
Singleton 60 37 23 1.0
Wagner 96 56 40 3.0
Interceptions
Name Ints Team Total
Singleton/McLeod/Mills 1 3
Diggs/Neal/Griffin 2 10
Punting
Name ATT YDS LONG AVG NET IN 20 TB BP
Johnston 45 2198 66 48.6 42.3 15 4 0
Dickson 37 1835 67 49.6 44.1 19 4 0
Kicking
Name ATT MADE % LONG PAT
Elliot 14 10 71.4% 54 14/14
Myers 12 12 100% 61 36/38
Kick Returns
Name ATT YDS AVG LONG TD
Scott 12 227 18.9 25 0
Homer 12 291 24.3 44 0
Punt Returns
Name RET YDS AVG LONG TD FC
Ward 13 88 6.8 22 0 13
Moore 8 91 11.4 20 0 12
League Rankings 2020
Offense Rankings
Category Eagles Stat Eagles Rank Seahawks Stat Seahawks Rank
Total Offense 330.1 26th 400.0 4th
Rush Offense 121.1 12th 121.3 10th(t)
Pass Offense 209.0 28th 278.7 5th
Points Per Game 22.0 24th 31.8 2nd
3rd-Down Offense 37.5% 28th(t) 41.2% 18th
4th-Down Offense 36.8% 27th(t) 77.8% 3rd(t)
Red Zone Offense (TD%) 63.3% 13th 77.8% 2nd
Defense Rankings
Category Eagles Stat Eagles Rank Seahawks Stat Seahawks Rank
Total Defence 342.7 10th 434.9 32nd
Rush Defence 133.4 25th 91.2 4th
Pass Defence 209.3 6th 343.7 32nd
Points Per Game 25.4 16th 28.7 28th
3rd-Down Defence 38.1% 6th 49.6% 30th
4th-Down Defence 41.7% 5th(t) 56.3% 18th
Red Zone Defence(TD%) 65.6% T-19th 70.0% 28th
Team
Category Eagles Stat Eagles Rank Seahawks Stat Seahawks Rank
Turnover Diff. -9 30th +1 12th(t)
Penalty Per Game 6.1 21st(t) 5.3 6th(t)
Penalty Yards Per Game 48.2 14th 39.2 4th
Connections
Eagles HC Doug Pederson was born in Bellingham, WA, and grew up in Ferndale, WA. Pederson recently admitted that he "Grew up a Seahawks Fan" and used to attend Seahawks games at The Kingdome.
Eagles LBs coach Ken Flajole is from Seattle and previously coached the Seahawks’ DBs (1999, 2001-02) and LBs (2000).
Eagles Safeties coach Tim Hauck played for the Seahawks in 1997.
Seahawks Northeast Area Scout Todd Brunner worked for the Eagles for four seasons (1994-97) as an area scout covering the Northeast. He joined the Eagles as a scouting intern in 1992 and worked as a scouting assistant in 1993.
2020 Pro Bowlers
Eagles Seahawks
DT Fletcher Cox (Starter) QB Russel Wilson (Starter)
OG Brandon Brooks (Starter) MLB Bobby Wagner (Starter)
TE Zach Ertz
C Jason Kelce (Starter)
LS Rick Lavato (Starter)
General
Referee: Brad Allen
Philadelphia hosts Seattle for the first time since the 2019 NFC Wild Card playoff game. The Eagles are aiming for their third con-secutive win at Lincoln Financial Field after defeating N.Y. Giants (W, 22-21) and Dallas (W, 23-9) during Weeks 7-8.
Miles Sanders leads the NFL with 5.7 yards per rushing attempt (min. 100 attempts). His 83.6 rushing yards per game rank 4th in the NFL, trailing only Dalvin Cook (118.8), Derrick Henry (107.9) and Nick Chubb (95.8) in that category.
Jason Kelce has started 99 consectuive regular-season games, which is the longest active streak among NFL centers as well as the longest by an Eagles center since the 1970 merger (previously 95 by Guy Morriss from 1977-83). The last NFL center with 100 consecutive starts was Chris Myers from 2007-14 (123).
Brandon Graham leads the Eagles defense with 7.0 sacks, which ranks 9th among NFL players. Graham (11 TFLs) joins T.J. Watt (9.0, sacks, 14 TFLs) and Za’Darius Smith (8.0 sacks, 10 TFLs) as the only NFL players with 7.0+ sacks and 10+ TFLs this season.
Draft Picks
Eagles Seahawks
WR Jalen Raegor LB Jordyn Brooks
QB Jalen Hurts DE Darrell Taylor
LB Davion Taylor OG Damien Lewis
S K’Von Wallace TE Colby Parkinson
OT Jack Driscoll RB Deejay Dallas
WR John Hightower DE Alton Robinson
LB Shaun Bradley WR Freddie Swan
WR Quez Watkins TE/WR Stephen Sullivan
OT Prince Tega Wanogho
LB/DE Casey Toohill
Notable Off-season Additions
Eagles Seahawks
S Will Parks S Jamal Adams
DT Javon Hargrave OT Cedric Ogbuehi
CB Nickell Robey-Coleman RB Carlos Hyde
CB Darius Slay RT Brandon Shell
DE Carlos Dunlap
DE Benson Mayowa
WR Phillip Dorsett
DT Bruce Irvin
TE Greg Olsen
CB Quinton Dunbar
Notable Off-season Departures
Eagles Seahawks
S Malcom Jenkins S Bradley McDonald
CB Ronald Darby DE Jadaveon Clowney
RB Jordan Howard OT George Fant
WR Nelson Agholor DL Quiton Jefferson
OL Halapoulivaati Vaitai DL Al Woods
LB Kamu Grugler-Hill OL Germain Ifedi
RB Darren Sproles DE Ziggy Ansah
DT Timmy Jernigan LB Mychal Kendricks
LB Nigel Bradham
Milestones
Eagles QB Carson Wentz (109) needs 1 passing TDs to take sole possession of 4th on the Eagles all-time passing yards list moving ahead of QB Norm Snead.
Eagles DT Fletcher Cox (52.5) needs 2 sacks to move up to 5th on the Eagles all-time sack list tying DE Hugh Douglas
Eagles DE Vinny Curry (29) needs 1 sacks to move up to 18th on the Eagles all-time sack list passing DT Jerome Brown
Stats to Know
Stat to Know: Bird is the Word
The average Bald Eagle's wingspan is considerably more than an Osprey's. The weight disparity between the two is even more pronounced, the male Bald Eagle doubling its counterpart's weight. So whereas Bald Eagles are known to harass Osprey nests and even steal Ospreys' food directly from them, this Philadelphia Eagles team is anything but average and is an embarrassment in the turnover department, currently third-to-last in turnover margin at -9, while the Seahawks are middle-of-the-pack at +1. A Bald Eagle is expected to be large, strong, agile, pesky, and majestic. The 2020 Philadelphia Eagles field 2 Cornerbacks 5'9 and under, they field undersized Linebackers and Safeties, and don't have a bruising Running Back to feature. They have been incapable of imposing their will on Offense or Defense. The only consistency shown in 2020 is in just how bad the team is, while still on top of the division. Some mornings I stare into the foggy mirror, with Lionel Richie's "Hello" playing on my Google speaker, and wonder what we've done to deserve this. Sad Eagles
Matchups to Watch
Russel Wilson vs. the Eagles Run Defense
This Eagles team has been woefully pathetic against the run this season, but even more so against opposing QBs who are not afraid to take off. Of the top 5 rushing performances against the Eagles defense this season 3 of them are QBs (Lamar Jackson and Daniel Jones 2x). Russell Wilson may turn 32 Sunday, but he is still a threat with his legs as he currently leads the Seahawks in rushing yards and is on pace for his second biggest rushing season in his career. Jim Schwartz has had zero answer the past 4 years against Russel Wilson and I don’t expect that to magically change on Monday. Schwartz best bet may be to spy Wilson with Rookie Davion Taylor, who has the athletic ability to keep up with Wilson, however Schwartz has failed to used spies on Wilson in the past, so if he makes a change in how it operates it will be a large evolution in his character which doesn’t seem realistic. I expect much of the same with Schwartz against Wilson on Monday, base Nickel defense with Cover-1 man and the corners playing 10 yards off to give easy outlets to Wilson.
A Moveable Object vs a Stoppable Force
If Philly wants to have any chance to win on Monday they are going to need to score points on the offensive side of the football, something they have failed to do regularly this season. Carson Wentz has been one of if not the worst QB in the NFL this season, at least the worst who hasn’t been benched yet. He has been a turn over machine and has been sacked the most in the NFL. But the offensive woes don’t lay solely at his feet, Doug Pederson has done Wentz no favors. Despite Wentz’s struggles Pederson has continued to lead on the QB, despite having one of the best running backs in the league who is averaging 5.7 yards per carry and has big play potential in Miles Sanders. It isn’t just that Pederson is abandoning the run, he is also calling a bland predictable offense which has failed to put his players in the best position to succeed. On the other side of the ball, the Seahawks have had issues stopping anyone this season, especially through the air where they rank dead last. They have given up an average of 343.7 yards per game. In recent weeks, they’ve been better in this area. They have given up over 300 passing yards just once in the last four games. If the Eagles have any shot to win Sunday, they need to win this matchup.
Carlos Dunlap vs Jordan Mailata
After Jason Peters gave up 3 sacks, 3 QB hits and 7 pressures in just 47 snaps before leaving the last game with an injury, he's thankfully moving to right guard somewhere he should have been after returning from the IR. This means Mailata will be back at LT where he was playing well before being benched for Peters return. He will face off against Carlos Dunlap who has 3 sacks in 3 games since joining the Seahawks. This is going to be the second time the Eagles faced Dunlap who in Week 3, had 4 pressures, 9 tackles, a QB hit, a TFL and a batted pass when facing Peters. If Mailata can play the way he was before he was wrongly benched by this inept coaching staff. Suring up Wentz’s backside should give him a little more confidence, something he has woefully lacked this season. This should be a good matchup against the young Mailata and the ageless vet in Dunlap.
Special thanks to abenyishay for their help in creating this Game Preview.
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nfl point spreads week 11 over under video

Top 10 Aaron Rodgers Throws NFL Picks Predicting EVERY GAME: Week 1 Darius Slay's Huge Pick 6 Off Josh Rosen! The NFL's New Love of the Gambling Industry Broncos vs. Vikings Week 11 Highlights NFL 2019 - YouTube Film Breakdown: Could Jordan Simmons Become Viable Starter for Seahawks? Every Turnover from WILD 1st Half!

Looking for Week 11 NFL odds, including spreads and over/unders for every game? You've come to the right place. Find updated odds below for Patriots-Eagles, Chiefs-Chargers, Texans-Ravens and more; Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson headline next week’s slate in a battle of MVP contenders. Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens, though, are 4-point home favorites against the Houston Texans. Below NFL Week 11 Betting Picks: Over/under pick of the week Broncos at Vikings (UNDER 40) Over the past two seasons, the UNDER has gone 15-1 (+13.9 units) when the Broncos have faced good passing teams... NFL Week 11 Spreads, Over/Under, Game Picks, and Betting Odds Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-2.5) The Cleveland Browns may have won in Week 10, but that doesn’t mean they’re a good team. Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham are not on the same page, and the offense simply isn’t playing up to their talent. The defense isn’t anything to write home about and can be exploited in the The over/under is 56.5 for Thursday night’s game between the Arizona Cardinals and Seahawks in Seattle The opening lines have been released for Week 11 of the NFL season. Fans can only hope this upcoming week’s game are exciting as the one Sunday in Phoenix. Below are the complete betting lines for all the Week 11 games, including the point spreads and totals. These are the consensus odds from multiple sportsbooks in Las Vegas and online, via OddsShark . Week 11 of the 2020 NFL season is upon us. Here are the point spreads and over/under point totals for the entire 13-game weekend slate. We'll update this page as the remainder of the point spreads and over/unders come out. Week 10 lived up to my expectations of being an ugly slate. Thankfully Week 11 is just the opposite and will be capped off by what could be the game of the season on Monday night in Mexico City between the Chiefs and Rams. Week 11 NFL OVER UNDER picks November 18, 2020 - Brad Gagnon Maybe you’ve already got your picks in for the 2020 NFL regular season, but by focusing only on point spreads, moneylines or football props, you’re robbing yourself of potential opportunities to make money on Week 11 NFL over/unders. Week 11 of the 2020 NFL season is upon us. Here are the point spreads and over/under point totals for the entire 13-game weekend slate. Related: NFL defense rankings – Examining the top defenses in the NFL. Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers . Lions-Panthers Week 11 point spread: Pick ‘Em (over/under 47.0) Injury update: Teddy

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Top 10 Aaron Rodgers Throws

Colin reacts to Aaron Rodgers' most remarkable play from win over Cowboys ... Past Bengals (Week 3) NFL Turning Point ... NFL Turning Point - Duration: 12:26. NFL ... Darius Slay comes away with a huge interception and touchdown. The Detroit Lions take on the Arizona Cardinals during Week 14 of the 2018 NFL season. This week we're looking at how the National Football League has gone from fighting gambling at every opportunity to fully embracing the gambling industry. The NFL has partnered with casinos ... During the first two weeks of the season, the Seattle Seahawks struggled when guard D.J. Fluker was sidelined by a hamstring injury. After his return, the run game emerged as the NFL's best ... The Denver Broncos take on the Minnesota Vikings during Week 11 of the 2019 NFL season.Subscribe to NFL: http://j.mp/1L0bVBuCheck out our other channels:NFL ... LA doesn’t have to leave the state, and are 4 point favorites over the Oakland Grudens. Over under is 48.5. I’m not sure why Los Angeles isn’t favored by more, as I think they will crush the ... The first two quarters saw a total of 6 turnovers, leading to a tie game at halftime. The Houston Texans take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during Week 16 of the 2019 NFL season. Subscribe to NFL ...

nfl point spreads week 11 over under

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