Best Football Prediction Website in the world | Safe Draws

I want to try a progressive betting method but i don't know a good site to take the matches and don't know the best type of bet for this method. Any opinion ?

Intro

A year after George RR Martin finished A Dance with Dragons, he updated his fans on The Winds of Winter:

THE WINDS OF WINTER. Also known as "Son of Kong." Working on it. Lots to do.

Massive and very specific update on The Winds of Winter complete, George turned to another project:

THE WORLD OF ICE AND FIRE. The concordance. Elio and Linda are my partners on this one, a compendium of the history and legends of the world of Westeros. A coffee table book, lots of gorgeous art from such talents as Ted Nasmith, Justin Sweet, and others. Making good progress on this one of late, lots of great historical stuff that I think my readers will enjoy. Never before revealed details of Aegon's Conquest, the War With the Faith, The Dance of the Dragons, the Paramours of Aegon the Unworthy, etc.

Hm. That seems much more detailed. This would become a pattern for George in the early years after A Dance with Dragons’ publication. He’d update at length on all of the imaginary history he was inventing for The World of Ice and Fire while occasionally placing a single-yet-generous breadcrumb of an update about Winds into our porridge bowl of need.
This led to fans mostly being in the dark on GRRM's progress on Winds -- with more cynical fans wondered if George was working on on the book at all.
Here’s the thing: George was working on The Winds of Winter. I can prove it. And in 2015 when he optimistically predicted he could finish the book in six months, he had good reason for his optimism. What was that good reason? Because by 2015, GRRM had completed two plot arcs and had wrapped two major POV characters for The Winds of Winter.
You are skeptical. I will convince you. Follow me into the light.

The Leftovers

In his retrospective on A Dance with Dragons, GRRM talked about the chapters he cut to The Winds of Winter, saying:

First, my editors and I made some decisions as to where to end this book which involved shifting a few chapters back into the next volume, THE WINDS OF WINTER. With a series like A SONG OF ICE AND FIRE, there are always judgment calls to make as to where to end one book and begin the next, since you're really dealing with one long story. Does this scene work best at the end of one book or the beginning of the next? Should this character go out with a cliffhanger or with some sort of resolution (be it permanent or temporary)? And so on. And so forth.

Then he talked about the identity of the POV characters that were not in ADWD that had chapters leftover saying:

Sansa, Sam, Aeron Damphair, Arianne, and Brienne have no chapters in A DANCE WITH DRAGONS. Several of those characters had chapters written, completed, and polished that have been moved into THE WINDS OF WINTER.

In the years since 2011, we were told or been able to piece together most of the chapters cut from ADWD to TWOW. They are: Alayne (Sansa I), Mercy (Arya I), Arianne I and II and Aeron Greyjoy (The Forsaken)
In that 2010 post where he talked about cutting Damphair’s chapter from Dance to Winds, he talked about how many pages he had on hand for Winds, saying:

The good news is that I seem to have written more than a hundred pages of THE WINDS OF WINTER already.

Five chapters/100 manuscript pages. Now, let’s turn to the chapters that were moved after Damphair's in 2010. In 2011, GRRM’s editor Anne Groell talked about how two major sequences were cut from ADWD to TWOW. These two sequences are the Battle of Ice and the Battle of Meereen. Originally, these two battles were supposed to close ADWD out, but GRRM voluntarily cut one battle to TWOW, and then Anne Groell convinced him to cut the other battle.
Knowing, now, that GRRM was working on an Asha Battle of Ice chapter in 2014 but released a Theon chapter as his first TWOW sample in December 2011 (right after he finished his ADWD tour and also before he planned to embark on new writing for TWOW), we can reasonably assume that the Theon sample chapter was originally written for ADWD before George voluntarily removed it to TWOW.
Switching to deduction, we can then determine that the Battle of Meereen was the sequence GRRM's editors urged him to cut late in the process. What Battle of Meereen chapters were cut to TWOW? Here, we turn to the Cushing Library and find a display card from the “Deeper Than Swords” event indicating that George cut three chapters from ADWD to TWOW in April/May 2011.
As to who the POVs were, we can make an educated guess that one of them was a Victarion chapter and another one was a Tyrion chapter. Both chapters were read in early 2012 at conventions shortly after GRRM started writing TWOW afresh. As for the third chapter cut, I think this was Barristan’s first chapter. Thanks to zionius_, we know that George was writing Barristan II in April 2012, but in early 2013, GRRM read both Barristan chapters and indicated that the chapters were “new to you but old to me.” That third chapter was probably Barristan I.
The final two chapters we can be relatively certain were written for ADWD and cut to TWOW were a Bran chapter and an Areo Hotah chapter. We only know that Bran was cut thanks to _honeybird who discovered that it was listed among “missing chapters” originally slated as among the final chapters of the book. Additionally, we know that in 2010, Elio Garcia Jr. reported that three Dorne chapters were moved from ADWD to TWOW. Two of those Dornish chapters were Arianne chapters. The third was likely an Areo Hotah chapter.
Post-2010, GRRM cut six additional chapters to Winds. Adding in the previously-accounted-for five chapters, George had eleven leftover chapters as a springboard for Winds. Fast-forwarding to 2012, GRRM told Spanish fan-site Adria’s News that he had two hundred “really finished” manuscript pages for TWOW -- probably all of his leftover material from Dance (100 pages/5 chapters cut in 2010 + 100 pages/6 chapters cut in 2010/2011).
The identity of these chapters gives us a springboard for understanding where George was when he returned to writing Winds anew in early 2012, but it's important to note that George started Winds with a much smaller sample of leftover chapters than when he split Feast and Dance in 2005. Recall, then, that he had 542 manuscript pages/22 chapters done for ADWD.
But there's another and perhaps even more important difference: From all available evidence, George did not have complete story arcs like he did when he split AFFC/ADWD.
In 2005, George believed that the amount of material he had leftover put him over halfway complete on Dance. That was not the case for The Winds of Winter in 2012 where he only had 200 of the expected 1500 manuscript pages completed.

Early Progress on TWOW (2012)

When George began writing new material for Winds in 2012, he faced a daunting amount of new writing to finish the book. And given his track record, any old and new writing for Winds would be rewritten, revised and restructured.
So, how was it that George thought he was close enough in 2015 to get the book out before Game of Thrones, Season Six aired -- just three years after writing new material for TWOW?
We’ll start with what we know of George’s early progress on TWOW.
As we talked about above, George had about 200 new manuscript pages for the book between January and June 2012 -- work he considered to be “in rough form.” As to what specifically was contained in those 200 rough draft pages, we know that:

• George reported having a partially written complementary chapter set between the finished Arianne II and the unwritten Arianne III in 2010. Link
• He was working on Barristan's second TWOW chapter in April 2012. Link
• He was writing about the Dothraki in May 2012. (A Daenerys chapter) Link
• George sent a “batch” (3-5) of Arya TWOW chapters to Jonathan Robert, artist for The Lands of Ice and Fire to help in the creation of the map for Braavos in early 2012. Link

That’s about the extent of what we know about those 200 manuscript pages. Given the benchmark that 100 manuscript pages = ~5 chapters, he wrote rough drafts of ~10 total new chapters.
Fast-forwarding to a year later, Anne Groell reported receiving a batch of 168 manuscript pages from TWOW for a contracted payment from Random House in February 2013, and George reported being “about a quarter of the way done” on TWOW a month later. My reading is that GRRM finalized 168 of the 200 draft manuscript pages or ~9 additional chapters for TWOW.
So, by early-2013, GRRM had 368 manuscript pages and ~20 finalized chapters for TWOW complete for TWOW.
However, Anne Groell reported that the 168 manuscript pages wasn’t everything that George had written:

I currently have 168 pages that he submitted back in Feb 2013 in order to receive a contracted payment, but I know more exists, because he keeps talking about chapters he hasn't yet sent me.

This throws a wrench into things as George having 368 manuscript pages complete for Winds lines up well with his statement a month later that he was “about a quarter of the way done.” So, how to square that circle? What I'd guess is that George sent all of his finalized chapters forward to his publishers while retaining mostly-finished chapters he still wanted to polish.
To sum it up: from what we know: In 2012, George wrote ~200 manuscript pages and was specifically working on the Barristan, Daenerys and Arya chapters.
Meanwhile, GRRM was making significant progress on The World of Ice and Fire.

The Written World(book)

Let’s pause on Winds and switch over to George’s progress on The World of Ice and Fire for reasons that will become clear later on.
Shortly after returning from his ADWD tour, George began writing The World of Ice and Fire. As elio_garcia told me a few years back, George first wrote the history of Aegon’s Conquest which he sent to them in May 2012. Thereafter, GRRM wrote detailed histories of the various Targaryen monarchs, but where he really focused on was the history of the dance of the dragons.
By September 2012, Martin reported having 103 manuscript pages on the dance of the dragons. But even that was not the full extent of all he wrote on that event. In August 2013, George finished the dance of the dragons, writing 80,000 words solely on that particular Targaryen civil war.
Reasonably, many fans wondered whether The World of Ice and Fire detracted from George’s progress on The Winds of Winter. In terms of the sheer amount of time and effort it took to write the worldbook: probably, yes. However, as we’ll explore later on, George probably used his writing on The World of Ice and Fire as part of the process for writing The Winds of Winter.

Winds Progress (2013)

Switching back to Winds. By early 2013, George was only a quarter of the way complete on The Winds of Winter. Meanwhile, Game of Thrones was a few months away from airing the third season. So, George had to pick up the pace for the book to get ahead of the show.
The major issue in getting ahead of the show was that 2012 only had him finalizing ~10 new chapters, and in terms of completed story, he hadn’t finished writing the battles of Meereen and Ice that were supposed to close out ADWD. So, George seemingly continued work on the Battle of Meereen, writing and completing Tyrion’s second Winds chapter sometime between February and August 2013 as it wasn’t a part of the batch of chapters that Anne Groell received in February 2013, but he read the chapter at Worldcon 2013.
Meanwhile, in May 2013, George was asked point-blank by Portuguese fans what POV character he was working on, and he responded with “Arya.”.
Later in 2013, GRRM stated on his notablog that “you will definitely hear more of Jeyne Westerling.”. Given that we later learned at ComicCon 2014 that Jeyne Westerling will be seen in the Winds Prologue, we can speculatively-assume that George had written at least a draft or partial form of the Prologue by 2013.
Elsewise in 2013, we learned that GRRM requested Dothraki translations for The Winds of Winter from David J. Peterson (The creator of the Dothraki Language for Game of Thrones). This implies that George had Daenerys material written by 2013 and needed it translated from English to Dothraki.
So, again, in 2013, we see George working on the Battle of Fire, Daenerys and Arya (and also the Prologue).

The Locomotive Approaches (2014)

By 2014, two things happened. The first was that George RR Martin finished The World of Ice and Fire in March 2014. The second was that George realized that Game of Thrones was catching up to him.
First, The World of Ice and Fire. In March 2014, George RR Martin completed a chapter on the Iron Islands and finished the book. As he reported in that post, his completion of The World of Ice and Fire was late, owing to him being a slow writer but also due to him adding a lot to the book (Sound familiar?).
GRRM concluded his notablog post by saying:

And HEY, this means another monkey is off my back. Only a couple left gibbering up there now. That little joker monkey, HIGH STAKES. And... gulp… SON OF KONG.

Part of George’s nervousness about confronting the Son of Kong was based in how high of a mountain he had to climb to complete the book, but the bigger part is that he had a locomotive heading for him in the form of Game of Thrones.
In the early years after Game of Thrones premiered, GRRM wasn’t exactly dismissive of the idea that Game of Thrones would catch up to him, but he didn’t seem overly concerned.
By 2014, though, things had changed. Now about to air its fourth season, Game of Thrones was approaching the end of George’s published ASOIAF material. George, to his credit, was now cognizant of this, telling Vanity Fair in 2014:

“It’s my hope that they’ll [do two or three seasons for AFFC/ADWD] and then, long before they catch up with me, I’ll have published The Winds of Winter, which’ll give me another couple years. It might be tight on the last book, A Dream of Spring, as they juggernaut forward.”

The problem for George was that David Benioff and Dan Weiss were not interested in adapting A Feast for Crows and A Dance with Dragons into multiple seasons. Instead, they were only looking at doing these two books in one season.
In response, George transitioned most of his creative output to The Winds of Winter. Sadly, we don’t know much of this output, really only being sure that George was writing: Daenerys and Asha.
On a brief appearance on the John Oliver show, GRRM appeared from his office with the computer screen on. Years later, fans were able to figure out that George was working on an Asha Greyjoy Battle of Ice chapter.
Onto Daenerys. In September 2014, in an interview with Galaxy Magazine (link unfortunately behind a paywall or in a hard copy), George talked about his writing for Winds saying:

“I’m going back to The Winds of Winter and writing the next scene—I’ve got Dany in a particular situation. I’ve just got to worry about how does this scene resolve? How do I end this chapter? How do I phrase this sentence?”

Finally, when George released the Mercy chapter, he talked a little about his progress, saying:

So far, I have not done anywhere near as much rewriting on WINDS... but of course, it is not done yet.

Fans took this as a qualitative sign of George’s progress back in 2014. The problem was quantitative. Information about how much of The Winds of Winter was done by 2014 is sparse. However, at a November 2014 charity drive for the Wild Wolf Sanctuary, George off-handedly said:

"I'm still in the middle of [The Winds of Winter], so it'll be some time before I write the scenes in which they die."

Provided that George wasn’t using “the middle of the book” colloquially, this meant that Winds was roughly halfway complete by November 2014, or had 750 finalized manuscript pages for TWOW. George had picked up his pace in writing TWOW, but he still had a long way to go to reach the finish line -- an additional ~750 manuscript pages.

The Deep Breath Before the Plunge:

Before we venture into theory territory, we’re going to take a tactical pause and assess all of the known chapters George completed for The Winds of Winter by late 2014.

• Aeron Greyjoy: 1 Chapter
• Asha Greyjoy: 1 Chapter
• Areo Hotah: 1 Chapter
• Arianne Martell: 2 Chapters
• Arya Stark: 3-6 Chapters
• Barristan Selmy: 2 Chapters
• Bran Stark: 1 Chapter
• Daenerys Targaryen: 3 Chapters
• Prologue: 1 Chapter
• Sansa Stark: 1 Chapter
• Theon Greyjoy: 1 Chapter
• Tyrion Lannister: 2 Chapters
• Victarion Greyjoy: 1 Chapter

In total, that’s 19-23 completed chapters that we can be sure existed. If George was truly halfway done on Winds by 2014, that tacks on an additional ~19 chapters to bring us up to 38-42 chapters/750 manuscript pages completed for Winds by late 2014. For comparative purposes: A Storm of Swords was 1521 manuscript pages/82 chapters while ADWD was 1510 manuscript pages/72 chapters. What this means is that in a best-case scenario, George had to write or finalize an additional ~30 chapters/750 manuscript pages for the book to get to the finish line: a daunting task!
So, then why in early 2015 (four months after he said he was “in the middle”) did George RR Martin tell Entertainment Weekly that he could get the book out before Game of Thrones, Season 6?:

Having The Winds of Winter published before season 6 of Thrones airs next spring “has been important to me all along,” says the best-selling New Mexico author. “I wish it was out now. Maybe I’m being overly optimistic about how quickly I can finish. But I canceled two convention appearances, I’m turning down a lot more interviews—anything I can do to clear my decks and get this done.”

This interview was conducted in April 2015, and given what Martin later said about his publishing house setting an initial deadline of October 2015 to release the book, George thought he only had six months of work to do before the book would be done.
And that’s why I think George’s optimism about getting the book done by October 2015 was sourced to what he had already written, rather than what he had left to write. In that, I now believe George finished major storylines for The Winds of Winter by late 2014/early 2015.

The Completed Battles

Among the known completed chapters for Winds, one thing that stands out is how many of the chapters dealt with the Battle of Meereen and the Battle of Ice. From our best information, four battle chapters were removed from Dance, and George wrote at least three additional battle chapters between 2012-2014.
Let’s move into theory ground: in looking at the available evidence, it appears that when George got back to writing The Winds of Winter, he picked up where he left off: in Meereen. Completing Barristan’s second chapter in 2012 and then Tyrion’s second chapter in 2013 indicates that George’s initial forays into Winds were Meereenese-centric. But after 2013, we don’t hear about George working on Meereen.
Over to the Battle of Ice. The Asha fragment reads like the opening moves of the Battle of Ice, chronologically occurring almost immediately after the Theon sample chapter where Stannis tells Justin Massey:

“I want you gone before midday, ser. Lord Bolton could be on us any moment, and it is imperative that the banker return to Braavos. You shall accompany him across the narrow sea.”

To get speculative, it reads like George hadn’t written anything about the Battle of Ice between the Theon Winds chapter and the Asha chapter he was working on in June 2014. Yet we know that George had written additional Theon, Asha and Victarion Winds chapters by 2017.
All of this leads me to think that by the end of 2014, George had finished the Battle of Meereen, and I think it’s possible he completed the Battle of Ice as well.
That’s two major plot-points possibly complete by the end of 2014. Still, even with those story points hypothetically completed, George had only finished story arcs originally intended for ADWD.
And that’s why he wasn’t just done with the battles by 2014. He might have completed far more than that. Entire POV characters.

Daenerys Targaryen the Complete

Let’s start with an uncontroversial statement: By 2014, I believe that George RR Martin had completed what he thought was all of Daenerys Targaryen’s chapters for The Winds of Winter.
Kindly drop the rocks that have suddenly materialized in your hands. I know that is a controversial theory. It was a joke! For this particular hypothesis that George had all of Dany’s chapters done by 2014, I started with the problem of “How the fuck did George think he could finish Winds by 2015 given how little of the book seemed to be done by that point? And then my research took me to everything we knew about Daenerys in Winds and then by accident, I stumbled on the split between Feast and Dance.
That accidental stumbling led to a whole essay on this topic. In that essay, I talked about how George believed he had Daenerys' and Tyrion’s ADWD story arcs complete before he split AFFC/ADWD into two separate books. This, along with the started-yet-incomplete Jon, Davos, Arya, Asha arcs, led to his optimism that ADWD would be finished by 2006.
I think something similar happened with The Winds of Winter. I think George had completed Daenerys Targaryen’s arc (and another arc I’ll unpack in the next section) by 2014. Is there evidence for this wild-ass theory? Perhaps!
In June 2014, George RR Martin was interviewed by James Hibberd and teased The Winds of Winter, saying:

“Well, Tyrion and Dany will intersect, in a way, but for much of the book they’re still apart,” he says. “They both have quite large roles to play here. Tyrion has decided that he actually would like to live, for one thing, which he wasn’t entirely sure of during the last book, and he’s now working toward that end—if he can survive the battle that’s breaking out all around him. And Dany has embraced her heritage as a Targaryen and embraced the Targaryen words. So they’re both coming home.”

For much of the book, they’re still apart. That’s a fascinating statement! Why? Because it might imply that George had written Dany’s story to its near or actual endpoint!
No, I don’t think this means that George was nearly complete on all of his story arcs. Just Dany's (and the other one). And that tracks with his non-linear writing style whereby he writes from one POV - until he runs out of steam before switching to a separate POV. As George talked about in that interview, sometimes, he gets way ahead on certain POV characters, and even has them completed well in advance of other POV characters.
In that vein, there’s something else odd about Daenerys. After 2014, we don’t hear about George working on a Daenerys chapter … at all. This radio silence on Dany in TWOW lines up with George writing Dany’s ADWD chapters. In 2003, he told a fan that Dany’s ADWD chapters were almost wrapped up -- eight years before he published them. George did write a bit more about Dany after 2003 and after the split of A Feast for Crows and A Dance with Dragons, but the last we hear about him writing Dany chapters for ADWD was in 2008 -- three years before the book was published.
However, to be fair, in 2018, George had one more mention of Dany within the context of her aforementioned intersection with Tyrion, telling Entertainment Weekly:

In Winds, I have like 10 different novels and I’m juggling the timeline — here’s what’s happening to Tyrion, here’s what’s happening to Dany, and how they intersect. That’s far more complicated.

So, the counterargument is that what George was saying about Dany and Tyrion's intersection back in 2014 was aspirational. He planned for the two to intersect late in The Winds of Winter, but he had not written that intersection. And perhaps by 2018, he was still struggling with timing Dany and Tyrion’s intersection.
Here’s a counter-counterargument: George wrote one version of Daenerys and Tyrion intersecting by 2014, was initially satisfied with it, but in the years since, he grew dissatisfied and experimented with the event occurring at different narrative junctures in the Winds -- hence the “I’m juggling the timeline” wording.
At the very least, George juggling the timeline of character intersections by writing multiple versions of it is something George has done in the past. Back in ADWD, he reported writing three versions of Dany and Quentyn’s intersection, timing that to occur at different junctures in the story to see which one was the most narratively-satisfying.
Now, before I leave you all convinced that George had written all of Dany’s TWOW chapters by 2014/2015, there is a good counterargument. About a month ago, I sent the sketch of this theory to feldman10, and he responded by saying:

What I question given his writing style is how GRRM could have “finished” Dany years in advance if she is regularly intersecting with other POVs. For instance, if Barristan, Vic, and Tyrion do reunite with Dany at some point in TWOW (as I certainly hope they do!), I would expect GRRM would begin writing them as all one “story” (unless they split up again). That’s even more important if Dany reaches Westeros and starts interacting with the Young Griff team.
That's really because of the gardening approach. Given that writing style, how could GRRM possibly write Dany’s interactions and conflicts with those other characters without having written them all up to the same point, and therefore having decided what they’ve all experienced, where they’re all coming from, and what their respective gardens have produced?

These are all excellent points by Adam, and I appreciate the counterpoint and have copied and pasted it here with his permission.
And if you thought the “Dany is wrapped” theory is way too speculative, you’re going to love (hate) the next part of the theory.

The Dances of the Dragons

Remember how we talked about George’s progress on The World of Ice and Fire? Let’s bring it home here. Part of the reason why I initially brought up the worldbook is how it's tied into the plotting of The Winds of Winter. It’s almost as if George used his imaginary history as a set of guideposts for The Winds of Winter. But perhaps the imaginary history is more than a guide for the novel.
The theory: What I think happened was that George parallel-wrote the dance of the dragons alongside of his Young Griff story arc in The Winds of Winter.
Recall that in 2010, George had written two Arianne chapters that he cut to The Winds of Winter. Also recall that he had a partially-written complementary chapter and envisioned a third unwritten Arianne chapter. We skipped over the possible identity of that partially written complementary chapter, but here, we’ll talk about it. It’s very likely a Jon Connington chapter as he’s in a prime position to bridge events from the end of TWOW, Arianne II (Arianne goes to Storm’s End) to whatever George is planning for Arianne III.
Right after George published A Dance with Dragons, though, he decided to write another chapter in the Stormlands as werthead reported in August 2011:

As speculated by many, two large battles will take place early on, a ‘battle of ice’ (presumably at Winterfell) and a ‘battle of fire’ (presumably at Meereen). A third battle has been added, namely the assault on Storm’s End by Jon Connington’s forces. Originally this was going to happen off-page, but GRRM decided it really should be shown. Possibly because we’ve seen Storm’s End under siege forever and it might be cool to finally see the place under full-scale assault.

This was another spot where George was expanding Aegon VI’s story, gardening his way towards more satisfactory storytelling vis-à-vis a newly-imagined Jon Connington chapter. It also shows us that George was very much in the mindset of thinking through Young Griff’s storyline just a few months after the publication of ADWD.
And then similar to Daenerys, 2011 was the last time we heard about George writing one of our primary eyes on Young Griff in TWOW. Like the absence of Dany chapters, that is odd. With Dany, George played mostly coy with whether Dany would have chapters, because of the cliffhanger he left Dany on in at the end of her ADWD arc. But with Arianne Martell and Jon Connington, we already knew that Arianne would return as a POV, and George had all-but-confirmed that JonCon would return.
And yet, July 2010 is the last time GRRM talked about writing Arianne’s TWOW chapters while August 2011 is the last time we hear about George’s plan to write a Jon Connington chapter. But in the years immediately following ADWD’s publication, we have a whole body of imaginary history work which reads like signposts for where George was going to take Aegon VI and Daenerys’ story.
Here comes the speculation: I think the whole time George was writing a detailed account of the dance of the dragons for the worldbook, he parallel wrote Young Griff’s story arc in the form of Arianne and Jon Connington’s Winds chapters.
We know that George didn’t set Winds aside while he worked on The World of Ice and Fire as there are Winds chapters we know he was writing in the 2012-2014 timeframe. Logically, it makes sense that George stayed within the same sphere of creative inspiration as he developed the imaginary history in parallel with developing Young Griff's story.
There’s a paragraph which first appeared in The Princess and the Queen (an abridged version of the dance of the dragons) which has always struck me as explicit foreshadowing for Young Griff's story in TWOW. It's this one:

Every visible symbol of legitimacy belonged to Aegon. He sat the Iron Throne. He lived in the Red Keep. He wore the Conquerer’s crown, wielded the Conquerer’s sword, and had been anointed by a septon of the Faith before the eyes of tens of thousands. Grand Maester Orwyle sat in his councils, and the Lord Commander of the Kingsguard had placed the crown upon his princely head. And he was male, which in the eyes of many made him the rightful king, his half sister the usurper.

This paragraph is emblematic of something at work with the entirety of the dance of the dragons that George wrote: namely, that the entire historical conflict and civil war reads as backdrop for Young Griff/Aegon VI’s rise in The Winds of Winter and downfall in A Dream of Spring.
Is it so implausible, then, that GRRM was switching back and forth between writing Arianne and JonCon chapters while writing what became known as "The Dying of the Dragons" section of the worldbook? (Maybe, lol)

What Went Wrong

In 2005, GRRM predicted that ADWD would be published in 2006, sourcing this to how much Dany and Tyrion material was already done. If George had completed all the Dany, JonCon and Arianne chapters by April 2015, GRRM had good reason to believe he could get Winds out in six months. All he had to do was complete the POV arcs for characters supporting Young Griff and Dany’s stories as well as the “bottle storylines” and probably complete one more major story arc.
So, what went wrong?
In his New Year 2016 Winds post, George talked generally about the issues he had after his bout of optimism in 2015, saying things like:

Yes, there's a lot written. Hundreds of pages. Dozens of chapters. (Those 'no pages done' reports were insane, the usual garbage internet journalism that I have learned to despise). But there's also a lot still left to write. I am months away still... and that's if the writing goes well. (Sometimes it does. Sometimes it doesn't.) Chapters still to write, of course... but also rewriting. I always do a lot of rewriting, sometimes just polishing, sometimes pretty major restructures.

Later in the post, he talked about a similar angle, saying:

Even as late as my birthday and our big Emmy win, I still thought I could do it... but the days and weeks flew by faster than the pile of pages grew, and (as I often do) I grew unhappy with some of the choices I'd made and began to revise...

This is George’s gardening style at work: restructuring/rewriting/revising what he considered to be substandard writing. That’s part of the reason George failed to meet his October and then December 2015 deadlines.
But I think there’s a missing piece -- one which has only become apparent in George’s recent posts about the POV characters he’s reported working on in June, August and November 2020: the Dany/Young Griff supporting POV characters and the bottle arcs.
Back in 2005, George was optimistic that he could finish ADWD by 2006, because he merely had to finish Jon’s story along with cast of characters supporting Jon/Dany’s storylines. But what delayed ADWD was the supporting cast of characters – especially in Dany’s storyline as it related to the Meereenese Knot. George struggled for years to satisfactorily write a twisting path of POV characters heading toward – or away – from Meereen, and that, more than anything, delayed that book’s publication.
Turning back to Winds: In recent months, George has indicated that he was writing/visiting the following POVs:

• Tyrion Lannister
• Barristan Selmy
• Areo Hotah
• Asha Greyjoy
• Cersei Lannister
• Arya Stark
• Victarion Greyjoy
• Melisandre of Asshai
• Samwell Tarly

The POV characters listed here are ones likely to be found in support of Dany’s arc (Victarion, Barristan, Tyrion), in Young Griff’s orbit (Cersei and arguably Areo) or bottle arcs -- ones temporarily independent from the rest of the story (Samwell and Arya).
So, in addition to the rewriting/revising/restructuring, I’d argue that what belayed George’s optimism of publishing Winds in 2016 was the supporting cast of POV characters. Those troubles extended beyond 2015 given that George was still working on these POV characters in 2020.

Conclusion (2017-2021)

In the years since 2016, George has optimistically predicted that he'd finish TWOW in 2017. But six months later, GRRM discounted 2017 and thought 2018 was possible. But by mid-2018, he admitted that Winds wasn't coming in 2018. Then in 2019, tongue-in-cheek said New Zealand could imprison him there if he did not have TWOW in hand by Worldcon 2020.
Unfortunately, data on what GRRM was working on is spare, but I'll give it a shot. Given that George talked about how important Lady Stoneheart's story is for TWOW in 2017, my theory is that GRRM made progress on Jaime and Brienne's chapters in 2017.
Meanwhile, you may have noticed that there's another POV character I haven't mentioned: Jon Snow. Will Jon have chapters in TWOW? Are they written? Yes. Perhaps some of his optimism in 2019 is sourced to him making progress on Jon Snow, perhaps even completing his POV arc.
In his last specific update on Winds (As of January 2021), George sounded optimistic once again, :

No, sorry, still not done, but I do inch closer. It is a big big book. I try not to dwell on that too much. I write a chapter at a time, a page at a time, a sentence at a time, a word at a time. It is the only way.

At the beating heart of all of this work that George RR Martin has put into The Winds of Winter is a desire to create a book that satisfies and captivates us. I believe this book will come, and when it does, all of the bleeding into the keyboard will have been worth it.

Edit 1: More ARKQ buying today (~50k shares). Thank you everyone for the positive feedback and discussion!
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) or TL;DR for the non-military types:
LMT is a good target if you want to literally go to the moon, and my PT is $690.26 in two years (more than 2x from current levels). Justification and some possible trade ideas are listed below, just CTRL-F “Trade Ideas”. I hope you guys enjoy this work and would appreciate any discussion or feedback. I hope to catch you in the comments.
Team,
We interrupt today’s regularly scheduled short squeeze coverage to discuss a traditionally boring stock, LMT (Lockheed Martin), with significant upside potential. To be clear, this is NOT a short squeeze target like many reddit posts are keying on. I hope that this piece sparks discussion, but if you are just looking for short squeeze content, all I have to say is BUY, HOLD, and GODSPEED.
The source of inspiration for me writing this piece is threefold; first, retail investors are winning, and I believe that we will continue to win if we continue to identify opportunities in the market. In my view, the stock market has always been a place for the public to shine a light on areas of innovation that real Americans are excited about and proud to be a part of. Online communities have stolen the loudspeaker from hedge fund managers and returned it to decentralized online democracies that quickly and proudly shift their weight behind ideas they believe in. In GME’s case, it was a blatant smear campaign to destroy a struggling business. I think that we should continue this campaign by identifying opportunities in the market and running with them. It may sound overly idealistic, but if reddit can take on the hedge funds, I non-ironically believe that we can quite literally take good companies researching space technology to the moon. I think LMT may be one of several stocks to help get us there.
Second, a video where the Secretary of State of Massachusetts argues that internet boards are full of a bunch of unsophisticated, thoughtless traders really ticked me off. This piece is designed to show that ‘the little guy’ is ready to get into the weeds, understand business plans, and outpace analysts that think companies like Tesla are overvalued by comparing them to Toyota. That is a big reason that I settled on an old, large, slow growth company to do a deep-dive on, and try my best to show some of the abysmal predictive analysis major ‘research firms’ do on even some of the most heavily covered stocks. LMT is making moves, and the suits on wall street are 10 steps behind. At the time of writing this piece, Analyst Estimates range from 330-460 (what an insane range).
Third, and most importantly, I am in the US military, and I think that it is fun to go deep into the financials of the defense sector. I think that it helps me understand the long-term growth plans of the DoD, and I think that I attack these deep-dives with a perspective that a lot of these finance-from-day-one cats do not understand. Even if no one ever looks at this work, I think that taking the time to write pieces like this makes me a better Soldier, and I will continue to do it in my spare time when I am feeling inspired. I wrote a piece on Raytheon Technologies (Ticker: RTX) 6 months ago, and I think it was well-received. I was most convicted about RTX in the defense sector, but I have since shifted to believing LMT is the leader in the defense space. I am long both, though. If this inspires anyone else to do similar research on other companies, or sparks discussion in the community, that is just a bonus. Special shout-out to the folks that read more than just the TL;DR, but if you do just read the TL;DR, I love you too!
Now let us get into it:
Leadership
I generally like to invest in companies that are led by people that seem to have integrity. Jim Taiclet took the reins at LMT in June of last year. While on active duty, he served as a C-141B Starlifter pilot (a retired LMT Aircraft). After getting out he went to work for the American Tower Corporation (Ticker: AMT). His first day at American Tower was September 10, 2001. The following day, AMT lost 13 employees in the World Trade Center attack. He stayed with the company, despite it being decimated by market uncertainty in the wake of 9/11. He was appointed CEO of the very same company in 2004. Over a 16 year tenure as CEO of AMT the company market cap 20x’d. He left his position as CEO of AMT in March of last year, and the stock stagnated since his departure, currently trading at roughly the same market cap as to when he left.
Jim Taiclet was also appointed to be the chairman of the board this week, replacing the previous CEO. Why is it relevant that the CEO came from a massive telecommunications company?
Rightfully, Taiclet’s focus for LMT is bringing military technology into the modern era. He wants LMT to be a first mover in the military 5G space, military application of AI space, the… space space, and the hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) space. These areas are revolutionary for the boomer defense sector. We will discuss this in more detail later when we cover the company’s P/E multiple and why it is absolute nonsense.
It is not a surprise to me that they brought Taiclet on during the pandemic. He led AMT through adversity before, and LMT’s positioning during the pandemic is tremendous relative to the rest of the sector, thanks in large part to some strong strategic moves and good investments by current and past leadership. I think that Taiclet is the right CEO for the job.
In addition to the new CEO, the new Secretary of Defense, Secretary Lloyd Austin, has strong ties to the defense sector. He was formerly a board member for RTX. He is absolutely above reproach, and a true leader of character, but I bring this up not to suggest that he will inappropriately serve in the best interest of defense contractors, but to suggest that he speaks the language of these companies effectively. I do not anticipate that the current administration poses as significant of a risk to the defense sector as many analysts seem to believe. This will be expanded in the headwinds section below.
SPACE
Cathie Wood and the ARK Invest team brought a lot of attention to the space sector when the ARKX, The ARK Space Exploration ETF, Form N-1A was officially filed through the SEC. More recently, ARK Invest published their Big Ideas 2021 Annual Report and dedicated an entire 7-page chapter to Orbital Aerospace, a new disruptive innovation platform that the ARK Team is investigating. This may have helped energize wall street to re-look their portfolios and their investments in space technology, but it was certainly not the first catalyst that pushed the defense industry in the direction of winning the new space race.
In June 2018, then President Trump announced at the annual National Space Council that “it is not enough to merely have an American presence in space, we must have American dominance in space. So important. Therefore, I am hereby directing the Department of Defense (DoD) and Pentagon to immediately begin the process necessary to establish a Space Force as the sixth branch of the Armed Forces". Historically, Department of Defense space assets were under the control of the Air Force. By creating a separate branch of service for the United States Space Force (USSF), the DoD would allocate a Chairman of Space Operations on the Joint Chiefs of Staff and clearly define the budget for space operations dedicated directly to the USSF. At present, this budget is funneled from the USAF’s budget. The process was formalized in December of 2019, and the DoD has appropriated ~$15B to the USSF in their first full year of existence according to the FY21 budget.
Among the 77 spacecraft that are controlled by the USSF, 29 of them are Lockheed Martin GPS satellites, 6 of them are Lockheed Martin Space-Based Infrared Systems (SBIRS), and LMT had a hand in creating and/or manufacturing for several of the other USSF efforts. The Next Generation Overhead Persistent Infrared Missile Warning Satellites (also known as Next-Gen OPIR) were contracted out to both Northrup Grumman (Ticker: NOC) and LMT. LMT’s contract is currently set at $4.9B, NOC’s contract is set at $2.37B.
Tangentially related to the discussion of space is the discussion of hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs). HGVs have exoatmospheric and atmospheric implications, but I think that their technology is extremely important to driving margins down for both space exploration and terrestrial point-to-point travel. LMT is leading the charge for military HGV research. They hold contracts with the Navy, Air Force, and Army to develop HGVs and hypersonic precision fires. The priority for HGV technology accelerated significantly when Russia launched their Avangard HGV in December of 2019. Improving the technology for HGVs is a critical next-step in maintaining US hegemony, but also maintaining leadership in both terrestrial and exoatmospheric travel.
LARGE SCALE COMBAT OPERATIONS (LSCO)
The DoD transitioning to Large-Scale Combat Operations (LSCO) as the military’s strategic focus. This is a move away from an emphasis on Counter-Insurgency operations. LSCO requires effective multi-domain operations (MDO), which means effective and integrated strategies regarding land, sea, air, space, and cyberspace. To have effective MDO, the DoD is seeking systems that both expand capabilities against peer threats and increase the ability to track enemy units and communicate internally. This requires a modernizing military strategy that relies heavily on air, missile, and sensor modernization. Put simply, the DoD has decided to start preparing for peer or near-peer adversaries (China, Russia, Iran, North Korea) rather than insurgencies. For this reason, I believe that increased Chinese and Russian tensions are, unfortunate as it may be, a boon to the defense industry. This is particularly true in the missiles/fires and space industry, as peer-to-peer conflicts are won by leveraging technological advantages.
There are too many projects to cover in detail, but some important military technologies that LMT is focusing on to support LSCO include directed energy weapons (lasers) to address enemy drone technology, machine learning / artificial intelligence (most applications fall under LMT’s classified budget, but it is easy to imagine the applications of AI in a military context), and 5G to increase battlefield connectivity. These projects are all nested within the DoD’s LSCO strategy, and position LMT as the leader in emergent military tech. NOC is the other major contractor making a heavy push in the modernization direction, but winners win, and I think a better CEO, balance sheet, and larger market cap make LMT the clear winner for aiding the DoD in a transition toward LSCO.
SECTOR COMPARISON (BACKLOG)
The discussion of LSCO transitions well into the discussion of defense contractor backlogs. Massive defense contracts are not filled overnight, so examining order backlogs is a relatively reliable way to gauge the interest of the DoD in a defense contractor’s existing or emerging products. For my sector comparison, I am using the top 6 holdings of the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (Ticker: ITA). I hate this ETF, and ETFs like it (DFEN) because of their massively outsized exposure to aerospace, and undersized allocation to companies like LMT. LMT is only 18% smaller than Boeing (Ticker: BA) but is only 30.4% of the exposure of BA (18.46% of the fund is BA, only 5.62% of the fund is LMT). Funds of this category are just BA / RTX hacks. I suggest building your own pie on a site like M1 Finance (although they are implicated in the trade restriction BS… please be advised of that… hoping other brokerages that are above board will offer similar UIs like the pie design… just wanted to be clear there) if you are interested in the defense sector.
The top 6 holdings of ITA are:
Boeing Company (Ticker: BA, MKT CAP $110B) at 18.46%
Raytheon Technologies (Ticker: RTX, MKT CAP $101B) at 17.84%
Lockheed Martin (Ticker: LMT, MKT CAP $90B) at 5.62%
General Dynamics Corporation (Ticker: GD, MKT CAP $42B) 4.78%
Teledyne Technologies Incorporated (Ticker: TDY, MKT CAP $13B) at 4.74%
Northrop Grumman Corporation (Ticker: NOC, MKT CAP $48B) at 4.64%
As a brief aside, please look at the breakdowns of ETFs before buying them. The fact that ITA has more exposure to TDY than NOC and L3Harris is wild. Make sector ETFs balanced how you want them to be balanced and it will be more engaging, and you will likely outperform. I digress.
Backlogs for defense companies can easily be pulled from their quarterly reports. Here are the current backlogs in the same order as before, followed by a percentage of their backlog to their current market cap. All numbers are pulled from January earning reports unless otherwise noted with an * because they are still pending.
Boeing Company backlog (Commercial: $282B, Defense: $61B, Foreign Military Sales (FMS, categorized by BA as ‘Global’): 21B, Total Backlog 364B): BA’s backlog to market cap is a ratio of 3.32, which is strong, but most of that backlog comes from the commercial, not the defense side. Airlines have been getting decimated, I am personally not interested in having much of my backlog exposed to commercial pressures when trying to invest in a defense play. Without commercial exposure, their defense only backlog ratio is .748. This is extremely low. I understand that this does not do BA justice, but I am keying in on defense exposure, and I am left thoroughly unsatisfied by that ratio. Also, we have seen several canceled contracts already on the commercial side.
Raytheon Technologies backlog (Defense backlog for all 4 subdivisions: 67.3B): Raytheon only published a defense backlog in this quarter’s report. That is further evidence to me that the commercial aerospace side of the house is getting hammered. They have a relatively week backlog to market cap as well, putting them at a ratio of .664, worse off than the BA defense backlog.
Lockheed Martin backlog (Total Backlog: $147B): This backlog blows our first two defense backlogs out of the water with a current market cap to backlog ratio of 1.63.
General Dynamics Corporation backlog (Total Backlog: $89.5B, $11.6B is primarily business jets, but it is difficult to determine how much of their aerospace business is commercial): Solid 2.13 ratio, still great 1.85 if you do not consider their aerospace business. The curveball here for me is that GD published a consolidated operating profit of $4.1B including commercial aerospace, whereas LMT published a consolidated operating profit of $9.1B. This makes the LMT ratio of profit/market cap slightly in favor of LMT without accounting for the GD commercial aerospace exposure. This research surprised me; I may like GD more than I originally assumed I would. Still prefer LMT.
Teledyne Technologies Incorporated backlog (Found in the earnings transcript, $1.7B): This stock is not quite in the same league as the other major contractors. This is an odd curveball that a lot of the defense ETFs seem to have too much exposure to. They have a weak backlog, but they are a smaller growing company. I am not interested in this at all. It has a backlog ratio of .129.
Northrop Grumman Corporation backlog ($81B): Strong numbers here. I see NOC and LMT as the two front-runners in the defense sector. I like LMT more because I like their exposure to AI, 5G, and HGVs more than NOC, but I think this is a great alternative to LMT if you like the defense sector. Has a ratio of 1.69, slightly edging out LMT on this metric. LMT edges out NOC on margins by ~.9%, though, which has significant implications when considering the depth of the LMT backlog.
The winners here are LMT, GD, and NOC. BA is attractive if you think anyone will have enough money to buy new planes. BA and RTX are both getting hammered by commercial aerospace exposure right now and are much more positioned as recovery plays. That said, LMT and NOC both make money now, and will regardless of the impact of the pandemic. LMT is growing at a slightly faster rate than NOC. Both are profit machines, but I like LMT’s product portfolio and leadership a lot more.
FREE CASH FLOW
Despite the pandemic, LMT had the free cash flow to be able to pay a $2.60 per share dividend. This maintains their ~3% yearly dividend rate. They had a free cash flow of $6.4B. They spent $3.9 of that in share repurchases and dividend payouts. That leaves 40% of that cash to continue to strengthen one of the most stalwart balance sheets outside of big tech on the street. Having this free cash flow allowed them to purchase Aerojet Rocketdyne for $4.4B in December. They seem flexible and willing to expand and take advantage of their relative position during the pandemic. This is a stock that has little downside risk and significant upside potential. It is always reassuring to me to know that at the end of the day, a company is using its profit to continue to grow.
HEADWINDS
New Administration – This is more of an unknown than a headwind. The Obama Administration was not light on military spending, and the newly appointed SecDef is unlikely to shy away from modernizing the force. Military defense budgets may get lost in the political shuffle, but nothing right now suggests that defense budgets are on the chopping block.
Macroeconomic pressure – The markets are tumultuous in the wake of GME. Hedgies are shaking in their boots, and scared money weighed on markets the past week. If scared money continues to exert pressure on the broader equity markets, all boomer stocks are likely weighed down by slumping markets.
Non-meme Status – The stocks that are impervious to macroeconomic pressures in the above paragraph are the stonks that we, the people, have decided to support. From GME to IPOE, there is a slew of stonks that are watching and laughing from the green zone as the broader markets slip deeper into the red zone. Unless sentiment about LMT changes, I see no evidence that LMT will remain unaffected by a broader economic downturn (despite showing growth YoY during a pandemic).
TAILWINDS
Aerojet Rocketdyne to the Moon – Cathie Wood opened up a $39mil position in LMT a few weeks ago, and this was near the announcement of ARKX. The big ideas 2021 article focuses heavily on satellite technology, deep learning, and HGVs. I think that the AR acquisition suggests that vertical integration is a priority for LMT. They even fielded a question in their earnings call about whether they were concerned about being perceived as a monopoly. Their answer was spot on—the USFG and DoD have a vested interest in the success of defense companies. Why would they discourage a defense contractor from vertical integration to optimize margins?
International Tensions – SolarWinds has escalated US-Russia tensions. President Biden wants to look tough on China. LSCO is a DoD-wide priority.
5G.Mil – We still do not have a lot of fidelity on what this looks like, but the military would benefit in a lot of ways if we had world-wide access to the rapid transfer of encrypted data. Many units still rely on Vietnam-era technology signal technology with abysmal data rates. There are a lot of implications if the code can be cracked to win a DoD 5G contract.
TRADE IDEAS
Price Target: LMT is currently at a P/E of ~14. Verizon has roughly the same. LMT’s 5-year P/E ratio average is ~17. NOC is currently at a P/E of ~20. TSLA has a P/E Ratio of 1339 (disappointingly not 1337). P/E is a useless metric because no one seems to care about it. My point is that LMT makes a lot of money, and other companies that are valued at much higher multiples do not make any money at all. LMT’s P/E ratio is that of a boomer stock that has no growth potential. LMT’s P/E is exactly in line with the Aerospace and Defense Industry P/E ratio standard. LMT’s new CEO is pushing the industry in a new direction. I will arbitrarily choose a P/E ratio of 30, because it is half of the software industry average, and it is a nice round number. Plus, stock values are speculative and nonsense anyway.
Share price today: $321.82
Share price based on LMT average 5-year P/E: $384.08 (I see this as a short term PT, reversion to the mean)
Share price with a P/E of 30: $690.26
Buy and Hold: Simple. Doesn’t take much thought. Come back in a year or two and be happy with your tendies (and a few dividends to boot).
LEAPS Call Debit Spread (Based on last trade prices): Buy $375 C 20 JAN 23 for $26.5, Sell $450 C 20 JAN 23 for $12. Total Cost $14.5 for a spread width of $75. Max gain 517% per spread. Higher risk strategy.
LEAPS: Buy $500 C 20 JAN 23 for $7.20. Very high-risk strat. If the price target is hit within two years, these would be in the money $183 per contract for a gain of 2500%. This is the casino strat.
SOURCES
https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/news/features/2020/james-taiclet-from-military-pilot-to-successful-ceo.html
https://www.warren.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/in-response-to-senator-warrens-questions-secretary-of-defense-nominee-general-lloyd-austin-commits-to-recusing-himself-from-raytheon-decisions-for-four-years
https://news.lockheedmartin.com/2019-08-30-Lockheed-Martins-Expertise-in-Hypersonic-Flight-Wins-New-Army-Work
https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/capabilities/hypersonics.html
https://research.ark-invest.com/hubfs/1_Download_Files_ARK-Invest/White_Papers/ARK%E2%80%93Invest_BigIdeas_2021.pdf?hsCtaTracking=4e1a031b-7ed7-4fb2-929c-072267eda5fc%7Cee55057a-bc7b-441e-8b96-452ec1efe34c
https://www.deseret.com/2018/6/19/20647309/twitter-reacts-to-trump-s-call-for-a-space-force
https://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/fy2021/fy2021_Budget_Request_Overview_Book.pdf
https://www.airforcemag.com/lockheed-receives-up-to-4-9-billion-for-next-gen-opir-satellites/
https://spacenews.com/northrop-grumman-gets-2-3-billion-space-force-contract-to-develop-missile-warning-satellites/
https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/capabilities/directed-energy/laser-weapon-systems.html
https://emerj.com/ai-sector-overviews/lockheed-martins-ai-applications-for-the-military/
https://www.defenseone.com/business/2020/07/new-ceo-wants-lockheed-become-5g-playe167072/
https://www.wsj.com/articles/defense-firms-expect-higher-spending-11548783988
https://www.etf.com/ITA#efficiency
https://s2.q4cdn.com/661678649/files/doc_financials/2020/q4/4Q20-Presentation.pdf
https://investors.rtx.com/static-files/dfd94ff7-4cca-4540-bc4b-4e3ba92fc646
https://investors.lockheedmartin.com/static-files/64e5aa03-9023-423a-8908-2aae8c7015ac
https://s22.q4cdn.com/891946778/files/doc_financials/2020/q4/GD_4Q20_Earnings_Highlights-Outlook-Final.pdf
https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/01/27/teledyne-technologies-inc-tdy-q4-2020-earnings-cal/
https://investor.northropgrumman.com/static-files/6e6e117f-f656-4c68-ba7f-3dc53c2dd13a

TENNIS IS GETTIN GOOOOOOOD, and that kinda means more hedging and squinting from me. These are some really high quality affairs with real tour implications for some of the underdogs if they're able to win. Hard to predict, and from a betting standpoint the tournament should probably be almost over for you. Once players have won a couple rounds, oddsmakers are pricing things very well, and since everyone is playing near their peak margins are very thing. Ladies first today.
Barty Rogers : Well, I owe Ash Barty an apology of sorts. The lack of aggression that I thought would be her poison against Alexandrova was adjusted well, and while she didn’t go for winners she did keep the ball extremely low over the net for the entire match in a much contrasting style to the loopy forehands that she’d employed against some of her previous opponents. She went almost exclusively crosscourt with her forehand and used the backhand slice to draw Alexandrova into the court and challenge the big hitters footwork. It worked, as Alexandrova got locked into long rallies and, despite bright points, found herself making a ton of simple errors. Her backhand left her, she was unable to convert her forehand down the line despite it being her best shot heading into this match, and her first serve all but disappeared. She was up a break and leading in both sets, but it never looked like she had a chance. When she did attempt to play a slice or an off-speed ball, Barty hit a winner every single time.
Rogers is lucky that she had the time to realize she was going to win her match. She struggled with comfort in the rallies early and when she had simple balls to end rallies she made some anxious errors, but there was plenty of time in this. Kontaveit was not sharp in this event and Rogers is playing her best. On the tour, form is most of who wins and Rogers has had a great end to 2020 and a good start to 2021. Where Alexandrova made errors, I think since Rogers plays a more conservative approach she’ll be ok. Barty is still a ridiculously difficult defensive test though, and the same extra balls she made Alexandrova play to earn errors will give Shelby trouble since this is new territory for her as far as the round of play. It’s easy to just pick Barty, but that is what I think I have to do. It was evident early in the match that although Alexandrova had the bigger offense, the amount of work she’d have to do with it would require an amazing performance. I expect Rogers to hang more in rallies, but struggle to find her way out of them. Barty in 2 close sets.
Mertens Muchova : Mertens continues to roll, dispatching Bencic in two pretty comfortable sets. Muchova had a really close match with Pliskova despite winning in straights. She was up and down a break in the first set, finding a hold late to close out. In the second Pliskova found a better gear in the rallies and went up 5-0, and then, something happened. It’s hard to say what, but outwardly it was double faults. Muchova simply hits the ball too solid and to too many open spaces for Pliskova to deal with, and as a result Pliskova never felt safe hitting normal rally balls. She went bigger than she had to, and established no rhythm. Muchova then managed to save some break points at 4-5, and from there it just seemed like Pliskova was mentally defeated. Matches between compatriots can often have funky results, and this definitely was one.
In previous rounds Muchova’s ability in the rally made her a clear favorite. Ostapenko, Pliskova, Barthel are all offensive talents, and Muchova’s defense and power just made it simple for her to win points and difficult for them to manufacture them without errors. Against Mertens, the equation changes. Mertens is very good at redirecting the ball, and won’t make really any of the errors Muchova’s previous opponents did. Muchova made some errors on her backhand wing in the last round, and struggled to hold serve. I think that will continue here, and Mertens will get one step closer returning serves as the match goes on earning her some break point chances. Mertens in 2.
Vekic Brady : Sneaky sneaky. Down and out of this one, Vekic found her best game. Vekic and Kanepi played a really high level offensive contest, with a lot of rallies being played from deep behind the baseline and with both players on the run constantly. Kanepi’s serve was a big weapon for cheap points, but Vekic’s earned her more simple balls to hit. Her power has really dragged her through this draw, and for a former title winner who has struggled to find that form again she becomes a dangerous player at this point in the tournament. Brady had a pretty easy match, but handled it the way you need to when this is the case.
Vekic is going to be the sharper player coming in. Playing Pliskova, Kanepi, and Podoroska really involves a lot of big hitting and defending. As a result, there’s a good chance that she is a bit more resilient in rallies than Brady will expect. It’s easy to get frustrated and cough up errors when your opponent is returning the ball with depth when you expect them to float up an easy one. Beating Kanepi means Vekic can win this match as well, even though Brady’s offensive ability on the forehand side and defensive ability at the baseline mean it won’t be easy. Brady is a clear favorite here for the simple reason that Vekic is not “supposed” to be here, but deep in an event it is easy to forget the past and focus on the task on court. I’m really not sure who will be more able to earn errors here, but I suspect Brady will close it out where Kanepi faltered, as she’s been improving all of last year and seems very sharp here despite having not really played a tough test. What scares me, and I’m aware I’m going back and forth, is the simple way Li ended Brady’s run the previous week. I wouldn’t feel comfortable backing Brady, but I think she should win. Brady in 3.
Pegula Svitolina : There just are no easy matches at this point, and the way I felt trepidatious about picking a winner in the last match is similar here. Pegula beat Mladenovic from start to finish. She’s really consistent from the baseline right now and continues to serve great. Svitolina had a similarly dominant win against a tough defensive test in Putintseva. Putintseva started early with the moonballs and pushmode and never got out of it. Svitolina hit her backhand clean and in a very measured fashion in this one, working the points patiently. It was a testament to her quality, but more so to her dominance against Putintseva. When you know you’re going to outlast your opponent, playing long rallies almost becomes a joy. You’re thinking while the other person is working. Pegula almost has the offense to beat Svitolina. She almost has the defense too. I don’t see a lot to separate these two, and their recent match in Abu Dhabi was won by Svitolina but in two single break sets so it’s tough to say the upset isn’t possible. Pegula seems better this week than in Abu Dhabi, with many players just kinda getting matches in at that event and not really pressing yet. I think she reverses some portion of the result, and after playing Putintseva Svitolina will take some time to adjust to someone playing actual offense. If Pegula is able to serve well, she may cause an upset, but it would be a monumental win since Svitolina is so fast, so consistent, and just won the matchup. Svitolina in 3.
I’m aware even as I write these things that it seems unfair to play both sides. “SHE MIGHT WIN, BUT ALSO SHE MIGHT LOSE!” is not a hot take, but I generally think it’s better to be honest about uncertainty and at this stage in the tournament everyone is playing so well that the margins are extra thin unless you’re Ash Barty who is the golden potato of success and shall never be doubted again long may she reign also did she get taller somehow?
Hsieh Voundrousova : Finally, the Hsieh Errani match is over. These two traded 7 straight breaks to open the match, and did not stop there. Hsieh had little to no way to end rallies against Sara’s speed, and Errani’s serve completely left her. After being up 5-2 in the final set, Errani didn’t win another game. It was a bittersweet result after being on the court for so many grinding rallies, but the better player won as far as the tournament goes. Hsieh will be better recovered for this next round against Voundrousova, and will have a better chance ot not simply being run senseless by the talented lefty. Voundrousova placed Cirstea immediately into her own personal jail cell in their match. Cirstea was in control of every rally, but Voundrousova kept the ball within a foot of the baseline on so many offerings. It looked like Cirstea would find her resolve in the second set, but all she found were more forehand errors down the line and more backhands into the net. It is a real phenomenon in tennis that when one players establishes they’re intent on hanging in the rallies forever, the other starts making mistakes. With the edges being so small, it seems that often (sadly) the player trying to play offense ends up losing. Cirstea will be back, but for now, she simply was unwilling to believe that she could tolerate the long rallies and still win the match.
Voundrousova is a much better Errani. Hsieh has great defense, and her variety will certainly make her an equal proposition against Voudrousova’s dropshot heavy offense, but I think that Voundrousova’s defending is a cut above Errani and Hsieh’s serve really faltered last round. This could close as Hsieh just beat her in Abu Dhabi, but Voundrousova is playing significantly better here and Hsieh has already been through some emotional wars. Voundrousova in 2.
Muguruza Osaka : Yay! Muguruza has been at her best here. Consistent and ultra-focused on defensive play. Diyas had not much chance. Similarly, Jabeur didn’t really have enough offense to hit through Osaka. Plot twist: no one does. Osaka has been winning majors because her mobility and defending on the baseline are something that creates no easy way to win points. She cuts off angles and plays the ball heavy and flat down the middle of the court and honestly it takes multiple shots from there to even produce the opportunity to hit the shot that got you pinned by Osaka’s return in the first place. It’s a difficult cycle, and the best path to beating Osaka right now is something that Muguruza will do, which is slowing things down and making it a shot-for-shot affair, rather than a frenzied trade at the baseline. Muguruza will look to construct points intelligently and to take time between them. The only chance (barring a blowup) that players have to beat Osaka in a major seems to be building pressure. Naomi still is prone to strings of errors when she misses a shot. There’s a general “I’d better go safe I just missed” reflex in most athletes and going safe generally means unintended deceleration on your swing which creates the next error. This is storytime though, and I don’t expect random strings of errors to net Muguruza more than a set. She’s playing her best, but I don’t expect it to beat Osaka’s best. Osaka in 2.
Sabalenka Williams : Match of the day! Sabalenka beat Li in such an impressive fashion, and I’m starting to get my hopes up that this is the year she breaks through in a major. She hits the hardest of anyone on tour, and has one of the best serves seen in a long time. The backhand down the line is a beautiful controlled swing, and the best thing about Sabalenka is that her movement doesn’t at all match her height. She covers the court beautifully, and her belief in herself isn’t deluded at all, but rooted more in a desire to compete and win. That’ll get you real far on tour, as her opponent can attest to.
Serena is one of the first players on tour to wear a catsuit, and Feliciano Lopez has been spotted in the stands eyeing the attire and stroking his nonexistent beard. Things to come, Catsuit Feli? Possibly. Serena looked her best coming into this event, and then the Potapova match happened. The same defensive struggles that she’d exhibited post-pregnancy were back, and it made me think I may have put too much emphasis on her slight bit of extra weight being tied to her errors. She’s lost the weight, but that first set was rough. On the bright side, when she had to fight at the end of the first set, she really was amazing. When she competes she gets such a singular focus it really is great to watch. The second set was better quality, as it always is when she plays. The question is, how does she neutralize Sabalenka’s offense. Serena can serve aces. She can put balls away when she has control, and she can attack second serves and break. Can she defend though? Ann Li is quick. Ann Li redirects the ball well, and attacks second serves. Ann Li is not Serena, but she was soundly beaten for two sets.
In sport sometimes (all the time) I get fooled. Sometimes Nadal looks sloppy and then comes out and rolls Novak in the French. Sometimes Federer goes 5 in the first round with the world #140 and then doesn’t drop a set the rest of the way. It’s possible that Serena was not really concerned about Potapova winning the match, and had a gameplan, and also that she will play excellent today. This is necessary though as much as it is a possibility. She’s making great strides back to her best form, but the tour has been improving during this period as well. Having a full crowd would be a huge boost to Serena as well, and it may be hard to rattle Aryna without that noise. Sabalenka in 2.
Swiatek Halep : Swiatek is just great to watch, and this is a contest that makes me happy. The WTA really is in great shape right now because honestly most of the players left in the event could win the tournament. Halep struggled against Tomljanovic but the next round she cleaned up those errors. She was aggressive and played her usual overwhelming game against Kudermetova. Kudermetova struggled in this one, and was pretty awful in the first set. She found more range in the second, but it seemed like she really was in a nightmare of errors and Halep’s pressure never allowed her to really have a moment to put things back together. Iga and Halep is a close match, because while Iga is likely to be the future, her best results have been on clay. She had a great run on hardcourt in the AO a few years back, but that was prior to her injury and she has struggled since then. Halep is hard to predict. The bookmakers have lent a helping hand here by making this match a pickem. Normally I’d say that points towards Swiatek but she’s such a recent major winner that her name is a big market. I would say that in this case, the pickem line is a real indicator of the tightness of this contest. Swiatek should start winning this match at some point in the future, but is it now? Halep was sharp against Kudermetova but had trouble when Kudermetova started to keep the ball in the court. I think it’ll be tough for Iga to score, and her errors will keep this close. I stil like her upside, and think Halep will play her into form at some point even if she struggles early. Swiatek in 3.
Djokovic Raonic : What in the fudge was that Fritz Novak match. After acquitting himself nicely in the first two sets, Fritz seemed on his way to a respectable L. I began to think that maybe Novak bought some stock in the USTA as he’d spent two rounds playing friendly with Tiafoe and Fritz. The the weirdness happened. Novak suddenly couldn’t hit the court. Simple balls, he hit almost predictably into the net. He had slow volleys into the open court and hit the net. He began guessing on all of Fritz shots and chose wrong on all of them. He double faulted. Something was wrong after a fall in the third set, and he spent a lot of time twisting and flexing, which made me think it was some residual neck or back stiffness. He would later tell the media he tore a muscle on his right side, but he’s struggled with back and neck issues in the past.
Down 2 sets to 1 against Novak Djokovic, Taylor Fritz was listed as even odds to win the match. You will never see anyone down 2 sets to 1 and even to win the match against a market like Djokovic, except Nadal at the French possibly. For a random 250 level guy like Fritz to be so was a clear indication that Novak’s physical hinderance was a nail in the coffin. Then the magic happened. The match was suspended while they asked the crowd to leave the stadium. Sure they warned the players they’d be taking a pause to clear everyone out. Sure they kinda made sense by sending them off-court so the crowd would know they weren’t going to continue play until they left. But wow did Novak return to the court almost completely recovered as far as his play and movement. They said Novak was not allowed to receive any medical treatment during the break. So what happened? Did whatever painkillers he took kick in? It is unlikely that he’d be able to compete as well as he did with a serious back/muscle issue even with painkillers. The stiffness and sharpness of pain generally remains. Did the muscle relaxers kick in? That’s a possibility. Did he stretch and miraculously recover? Unlikely, as he wasn’t really working on any stretching or rehabilitation work during changeovers and breaks. I’m not complaining, but the break came as he was pretty much completely finished, and benefitted him greatly as he was able to physically compete when they came back. What was great to see actual as Novak went crippled godmode and roped the ball down both lines over and over on every shot was Fritz competing so hard and playing such good defense. He is a mush and it was great to see him finally fight his way to his best level. Both him and Tiafoe benefitted greatly from their time on the court with one of the best players of all time.
The question now, and there are nothing but questions, is how will he recover to play Raonic. The odds have opened at -190 +160 for Novak/Milos, and this is a pretty clear indication that they either don’t expect the match to happen, or expect it to happen with Novak in a pretty hampered form. Within the match, I can see how Novak might want to play through and see what treatment was available. If it’s the same story going in though, and with many rounds left to play, I don’t see his team allowing him to play and risking furthering the injury. This is likely going to be a Raonic win, and the only caveat is that Djokovic has been injured, completely finished, and obviously going to lose in many situations and tournaments already. He has found miraculous 3rd set comebacks and as many pointed out in the 4th set while he looked sunk “he’s always like this, haven’t you learned?” I’ve learned that I cannot learn. Raonic, who is currently dressed like a guy who stole an old lady’s clothes off her clothesline because he wound up trapped outside naked in a bad comedy movie, by forfeit.
Lajovic Zverev : Hmm. Lajovic was struggling to gain control of points against Martinez, and eventually decided on outlasting him as a strategy. It worked, as Martinez played a number of lovely points but couldn’t find his way out of rallies. A great result for him, and since clay is his best surface this is just a super bonus that allows him to stay on tour all year. Zverev never really struggled against Mannarino. Mannarino was laughing to his team about the height of Zverev’s serve, and he was wholly overwhelmed by the power. It’s hard to say it, but Zverev is starting to look dominant against a lot of the tour in these 3/5 situations. He also won back to back tournaments towards the end of last year, and made the finals of a major. He is a spindly dillhole, but he’s good at the tennis. Lajovic is a step up from Mannarino in terms of ballstriking, but is a similar level of ineffective at hitting outright winners. I’m underthinking this, but Lajovic doesn’t have a clear way to win other than “hang in rallies and hope for errors or fatigue.” Zverev in 3.
Thiem Dimitrov : Well shoot. Thiem and Kyrgios was a classic. The crowd was almost exhausted themselves by the 5th set, and the announcers were excited as well. Thiem looked rattled by the crowd for at least half of this match, and didn’t hit the ball well for those portions. The crowd was loud, and Kyrgios was solid. There is something aggravating about imploring the crowd to make noise and celebrate, and then employing the best friend tactics by saying “too good” to the guy you are actively trying to mess with. The fake underhand serve directly into the normal service motion is one of those things that, while not illegal, is a grimey move. Kyrgios is a classic attention-seeker though, so he can’t help trying to play both sides. “I need them to like me, but I also want you to like me” is the vibe regarding the crowd/box and his opponent.
That aside, and his usual immediate non-sequitur bitching to the umpire whenever the tennis doesn’t go his way, he played a good match. He lost because, well, he doesn’t often play good matches. The same way Kokkinakis lost because he couldn’t physically compete by the 5th set, Kyrgios lost because he hasn’t played enough serious tennis to believe that he could hang in rallies. Fatigue is obviously a factor as well, but for a guy who moves as well as he does, training can eclipse that kind of fatigue. He could have won majors if he took it seriously, but he’ll still be a great entertainer and I’ll admit he does cringey things but I do enjoy watching a bit of drama. As it stands these guys have passed him by, and Thiem’s silent comeback was well deserved as he dealt with nonstop cheering of his errors and faults and heckling and Kyrgios even did his own passive-aggressive brand of trash-talking. I would point to the same premature celebration that Tiafoe had as an issue here with Kyrgios as well. There were so many big points for him that it seemed at times he was emotionally drained and looking to drum up crowd support or things to take issue with so he could compete. You gotta manage your physical reserves as well as your emotional ones, and he was in it for a sprint not for a marathon.
Dimitrov was scary good for a set against PCB, who had to retire with an abdominal issue. I really have not seen anything from Dimitrov so far that says he can’t win this match. He’s serving incredibly well, smoking his backhand, and he seems focused. The problem is now that he’s playing a guy who’s very similar but with more experience winning at this stage, a better backhand, and more power in general. This is a shootout that Dimitrov will need Thiem to start slow in to have a chance. Thiem’s defending is just as good if not better than Dimitrov’s, and while people think both are cute, Thiem’s instagram comments include significantly more marriage proposals and demands to “treat me like a baby otter and hold me while i sleep” (I counted two of these it must be a thing). Dimitrov’s serving is a bit better than Thiem’s right now. Thiem’s 5 setter makes him significantly more fatigued than Dimitrov, but his training is such that he’ll likely be at his best for some large chunk of this. Thiem can often be a slow starter, which gives the Dimitrov we saw early against PCB a shot, but producing that sort of winning tennis across a match will be Dimitrov’s biggest challenge in quite some time. I’m not comfortable backing Thiem to achieve any specific result here, but it’s hard to say he shouldn’t win. Thiem in 4-5.
Auger-Aliassime Karatsev : Auger-Aliassime got a nice gift from Shapo, who found errors late in sets over and over. Shapovalov was feeling pressure, and the look on his face made it seem like he always was fighting the “WHAT IF YOU LOST” thoughts that had to have been flying through his spacious head at a rapid rate. That brings up a very interesting clash against a guy who played the best match of offensive tennis I have seen since watching the tour. If you can find a replay, watch the Karatsev Schwartzman match. Aslan Karatsev hit 50 winners in 3 sets, and there was not a single point when he did not simply outclass Diego. He faced break points and served ace after ace, and when he had a ball to hit or the open court, he smoked it right past Diego. It is extremely rare that Schwartzman doesn’t get his racquet on the ball, and the offense Karatsev produced was surprising even after watching him produce it. I can’t say enough about how well he’s playing, and Gerasimov’s relative surrender makes a lot more sense now.
FAA is a different test than Diego, but wow have the odds for this one plummeted. After opening at -274, FAA now sits at -180. This means huge amounts of money are pouring in on Karatsev. So can he win? Sure, and in a 2/3 structure I think he is a favorite, but the 3/5 and FAA’s current form and coming off an easy win against Shapo makes this interesting. Karatsev’s level against Diego can beat anyone. I really mean that. There is a level of offense where the opponent does not matter. The issue here is that FAA brings his own offense in, and since Diego was unable to really get deep into rallies with Karatsev, We haven’t really seen his stamina tested. If FAA is able to win a set, that’s an extra set of offense Karatsev needs. If FAA is able to return serve well, these are extra balls that Karatsev has to play. He is in no way suspect, and it isn’t likely after 3 rounds of immaculate play that his offense will just disappear, but we haven’t seen the errors that have populated his play in the past yet. FAA is fast and deals well with power. This is a completely even match in my head, which says a ton about Karatsev. FAA struggling with Gerasimov last week is a similar thing to what might happen here. For bettors though, after a line move like that, you’re kinda getting in late if you’re backing Karatsev to win outright, and major line movements don’t always mean you’re right. Often the public is quick to jump on a “LOCK!” and everyone floods their money in as if they know something the book doesn’t. I actually felt that FAA opening at the same price as Diego was somewhat interesting, and I don’t often see that with a surging underdog on tour. Generally you’ll see a -274 +224, -200 +170, -160 +140 gradual type regression. Still, interesting numbers aside, this is a close match because Karatsev is relatively fresh, and Schwartzman is the best outside the big 3 at deflating offensive talents. I think he gets the job done here unless we see a huge regression to the mean. The problem will really be breaking FAA’s serve, since lower ranked player tend not to be the most adept returners and FAA is a wayyyyyy better server and offensive player than Diego. Karatsev in 5 if his stamina holds up.
Rublev Ruud : Rublev just keeps rolling. Lopez’ serve was negated, and with a very winnable match here against Ruud, the Rublev Medvedev clash seems likely. Ruud struggled but found the win against Albot. It took a really long time and a ton of rallies. Rallies that Rublev will end. Rublev in 3.
McDonald Medvedev : Great run for McDonald. It’s gotta end sometime though, and this will be a fun contest since he’s so solid and aggressive from the baseline, but Medvedev is just a defender you can’t hit through. I thought Krajinovic had a chance after watching the early parts of the first set, because simply put, the guy trains with Djokovic and is one of the best counterpunchers on the baseline that the tour has. He’s perfect to play against Medvedev. Medvedev blinked too, but his serve is just too big a weapon for him to lose these difficult matches. As it gets late, he gets the easier holds. He will against Mackie also. Medvedev in 3.
Tsitsipas Berretini : Cover me I’m going in. Tsitsipas backed up his struggle against Kokkinakis with a sound dispatching of Ymer. It reminded me of the Mutombo “uh uh uh” finger wagging. Just because the guy struggles at times under pressure doesn’t mean he’s prone to upsets. A great win to get back on track, and he’ll need it as Berretini is playing great ball. There were two weapons in the Khachanov Berretini match. Berretini’s forehand, and Berretini’s dropshots. This combo makes it so incredibly difficult to defend once Berretini gets inside the baseline. He doesn’t hit the bailout “I want the rally to end” dropshots that others on tour do, they are really well done and generally go untouched. The forehand is crazy. He hits the ball so fast that Khachanov who is a great defender really looked in desperation mode. He spent a lot of time just redirecting the ball and it was a good strategy but he didn’t end up with clear ways to win points. When it came time for tiebreakers, Berretini just played better. Khachanov had netcords fly past him when he was in positon for a volley, and just really everything that could go bad did. Still, Berretini’s play was backed up even better by how well he served at times. When he had a set point, he served an ace. Simple, effective.
I liked what I saw from Berretini enough that I disagree with the -380 price tag of Tsitsipas. I’m not sure how Tsitsipas will fare against a significant offensive talent, and although Berretini’s backhand is a huge liability, his ability to get it low may give Tsitsipas ample opportunity to make backhand errors. What I think the trouble here for Tsitsipas may prove to be is the same as Khachanov faced. As the sets get deep, it starts to be clear that Berretini is going to play his offense on all the big points, and it can take the racquet out of your hands. It’s rare on tour for such a great server to also have a huge forehand, and Berretini is not really going to be uncomfortable with his opponent or with the situation. These two have played a number of times, with Tsitsipas dominating their past matches and Berretini winning the most recent one (although it was a UTR exhibition). Tsitsipas has had similar clashes against servers wind up deep, and although he has a bright future, and can play a perfect set of tennis, this is not a dominant matchup, but a shootout. Picture Berretini getting to the same 5th set against Tsitsipas. Do you see Tsitsipas pulling it off? Will Berretini be exhausted? Will he struggle to win rallies once he gets control? I’ve overestimated his chances before against guys like Federer and Nadal, but I don’t think Tsitsipas is there just yet. If, on the other hand, Tsitsipas is able to dispatch Berretini in a simple manner, then he has a real chance to defeat Fognini in the next round. I’m leaning into the upset. Berretini in 4.
Fognini Nadal : I wanna say it and so do you. This is not the guy who you want to see playing Nadal. De Minaur was in full “I wanna go fast!” mode against Fognini. He kept playing the ball back quickly and down the middle and he kept waiting to get rewarded by Fognini errors. They came, but not on the break points, and Fognini proved that his wins against Caruso and Herbert were not flukes and that when he’s focused he can win. Although bookmakers lines are prices for expected investment, not lines, De Minaur was sat at -500 against Fognini and Nadal is only -600. Nadal is the largest market in tennis year after year. People feel extremely comfortable in backing him at absurd prices because, simply put, he is a machine. He plays every single point well, and he gets better as a match goes on without starting it at a mediocre level. Fognini may not be a winner here, but he has earned some significant respect by only sitting at +450 (or whatever the devilish books have gouged +600 down to on your site). There is a good reason for the somewhat careful price. Fognini is rarely motivated, but has turned in some of his best performances against Nadal. Nadal is probably the greatest competitor we have seen (RIP my inbox), but these are very fast courts and he did have some woes against Norrie. If you’ve read my articles in the past, you know I very admittedly fall for Nadal’s slumps and Federer’s, and bet against them once per event. Is this that round?
Fognini hitting through De Minaur means, despite his early errors, that he is cranking the ball at a solid pace, and defending well. His backhand is solid, and his forehand is easy power. He is supremely skillful, and he can make a game of it with Nadal. Downsides are clear. Nadal happens to be Nadal. Fognini is a child inside a conceited man’s body, and gives up when things don’t go his way. He is inconsistent, and his carefree play means he will make errors in spots where he shouldn’t. I’d be wary of backing Nadal here, but he should still win. Nadal in 4-5 (RIP my second super secret inbox).

NEW INFO 5 Results from share redemption are posted. Less than .2% redeemed. Very bullish as investors are showing extreme confidence in the future of PLBY.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/playboy-mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-120000721.html
NEW INFO 4 Definitive Agreement to purchase 100% of Lovers brand stores announced 2/1.
https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Playboy+%28MCAC%29+Confirms+Deal+to+Acquire+Lovers/17892359.html
NEW INFO 3 I bought more on the dip today. 5081 total. Price rose AH to $12.38 (2.15%)
NEW INFO 2 Here is the full webinar.
https://icrinc.zoom.us/rec/play/9GWKdmOYumjWfZuufW3QXpe_FW_g--qeNbg6PnTjTMbnNTgLmCbWjeRFpQga1iPc-elpGap8dnDv8Zww.yD7DjUwuPmapeEdP?continueMode=true&tk=lEYc4F_FkKlgsmCIs6w0gtGHT2kbgVGbUju3cIRBSjk.DQIAAAAV8NK49xZWdldRM2xNSFNQcTBmcE00UzM3bXh3AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA&uuid=WN_GKWqbHkeSyuWetJmLFkj4g&_x_zm_rtaid=kR45-uuqRE-L65AxLjpbQw.1611967079119.2c054e3d3f8d8e63339273d9175939ed&_x_zm_rhtaid=866
NEW INFO 1 Live merger webinar with PLBY and MCAC on Friday January 29, 2021 at 12:00 NOON EST link below
https://mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/press-release-details/2021/Playboy-Enterprises-Inc.-and-Mountain-Crest-Acquisition-Corp-Participate-in-SPACInsider-ICR-Webinar-on-January-29th-at-12pm-ET/default.aspx
Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis
!!!WARNING READING AHEAD!!! TL;DR at the end. It will take some time to sort through all the links and read/watch everything, but you should.
In the next couple weeks, Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp is taking Playboy public. The existing ticker MCAC will become PLBY. Special purpose acquisition companies have taken private companies public in recent months with great success. I believe this will be no exception. Notably, Playboy is profitable and has skyrocketing revenue going into a transformational growth phase.
Porn - First and foremost, let's talk about porn. I know what you guys are thinking. “Porno mags are dead. Why would I want to invest in something like that? I can get porn for free online.” Guess what? You are absolutely right. And that’s exactly why Playboy doesn’t do that anymore. That’s right, they eliminated their print division. And yet they somehow STILL make money from porn that people (see: boomers) pay for on their website through PlayboyTV, Playboy Plus, and iPlayboy. Here’s the thing: Playboy has international, multi-generational name recognition from porn. They have content available in 180 countries. It will be the only publicly traded adult entertainment (porn) company. But that is not where this company is going. It will help support them along the way. You can see every Playboy magazine through iPlayboy if you’re interested. NSFW links below:
https://www.playboy.com/
https://www.playboytv.com/
https://www.playboyplus.com/
https://www.iplayboy.com/
Gambling - Some of you might recognize the Playboy brand from gambling trips to places like Las Vegas, Atlantic City, Cancun, London or Macau. They’ve been in the gambling biz for decades through their casinos, clubs, and licensed gaming products. They see the writing on the wall. COVID is accelerating the transition to digital, application based GAMBLING. That’s right. What we are doing on Robinhood with risky options is gambling, and the only reason regulators might give a shit anymore is because we are making too much money. There may be some restrictions put in place, but gambling from your phone on your couch is not going anywhere. More and more states are allowing things like Draftkings, poker, state ‘lottery” apps, hell - even political betting. Michigan and Virginia just ok’d gambling apps. They won’t be the last. This is all from your couch and any 18 year old with a cracked iphone can access it. Wouldn’t it be cool if Playboy was going to do something like that? They’re already working on it. As per CEO Ben Kohn who we will get to later, “...the company’s casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth.” Honestly, I stopped researching Scientific Games' sports betting segment when I saw the word ‘omni-channel’. That told me all I needed to know about it’s success.
“Our SG Sports™ platform is an enhanced, omni-channel solution for online, self-service and retail fixed odds sports betting – from soccer to tennis, basketball, football, baseball, hockey, motor sports, racing and more.”
https://www.scientificgames.com/
https://www.microgaming.co.uk/
“This latter segment has become increasingly enticing for Playboy, and it said last week that it is considering new tie-ups that could include gaming operators like PointsBet and 888Holdings.”
https://calvinayre.com/2020/10/05/business/playboys-gaming-ops-could-get-a-boost-from-spac-purchase/
As per their SEC filing:
“Significant consumer engagement and spend with Playboy-branded gaming properties around the world, including with leading partners such as Microgaming, Scientific Games, and Caesar’s Entertainment, steers our investment in digital gaming, sports betting and other digital offerings to further support our commercial strategy to expand consumer spend with minimal marginal cost, and gain consumer data to inform go-to-market plans across categories.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tMDAA1
They are expanding into more areas of gaming/gambling, working with international players in the digital gaming/gambling arena, and a Playboy sportsbook is on the horizon.
https://www.playboy.com/read/the-pleasure-of-playing-with-yourself-mobile-gaming-in-the-covid-era
Cannabis - If you’ve ever read through a Playboy magazine, you know they’ve had a positive relationship with cannabis for many years. As of September 2020, Playboy has made a major shift into the cannabis space. Too good to be true you say? Check their website. Playboy currently sells a range of CBD products. This is a good sign. Federal hemp products, which these most likely are, can be mailed across state lines and most importantly for a company like Playboy, can operate through a traditional banking institution. CBD products are usually the first step towards the cannabis space for large companies. Playboy didn’t make these products themselves meaning they are working with a processor in the cannabis industry. Another good sign for future expansion. What else do they have for sale? Pipes, grinders, ashtrays, rolling trays, joint holders. Hmm. Ok. So it looks like they want to sell some shit. They probably don’t have an active interest in cannabis right? Think again:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/09/24/playboy-gets-serious-about-cannabis-law-reform-advocacy-with-new-partnership-grants/?sh=62f044a65cea
“Taking yet another step into the cannabis space, Playboy will be announcing later on Thursday (September, 2020) that it is launching a cannabis law reform and advocacy campaign in partnership with National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML), Last Prisoner Project, Marijuana Policy Project, the Veterans Cannabis Project, and the Eaze Momentum Program.”
“According to information procured exclusively, the three-pronged campaign will focus on calling for federal legalization. The program also includes the creation of a mentorship plan, through which the Playboy Foundation will support entrepreneurs from groups that are underrepresented in the industry.” Remember that CEO Kohn from earlier? He wrote this recently:
https://medium.com/naked-open-letters-from-playboy/congress-must-pass-the-more-act-c867c35239ae
Seems like he really wants weed to be legal? Hmm wonder why? The writing's on the wall my friends. Playboy wants into the cannabis industry, they are making steps towards this end, and we have favorable conditions for legislative progress.
Don’t think branding your own cannabis line is profitable or worthwhile? Tell me why these 41 celebrity millionaires and billionaires are dummies. I’ll wait.
https://www.celebstoner.com/news/celebstoner-news/2019/07/12/top-celebrity-cannabis-brands/
Confirmation: I hear you. “This all seems pretty speculative. It would be wildly profitable if they pull this shift off. But how do we really know?” Watch this whole video:
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/playboy-ceo-telling-story-female-154907068.html
Man - this interview just gets my juices flowing. And highlights one of my favorite reasons for this play. They have so many different business avenues from which a catalyst could appear. I think paying attention, holding shares, and options on these staggered announcements over the next year is the way I am going to go about it. "There's definitely been a shift to direct-to-consumer," he (Kohn) said. "About 50 percent of our revenue today is direct-to-consumer, and that will continue to grow going forward.” “Kohn touted Playboy's portfolio of both digital and consumer products, with casino-style gaming, in particular, serving a crucial role under the company's new business model. Playboy also has its sights on the emerging cannabis market, from CBD products to marijuana products geared toward sexual health and pleasure.” "If THC does become legal in the United States, we have developed certain strains to enhance your sex life that we will launch," Kohn said. https://cheddar.com/media/playboy-goes-public-health-gaming-lifestyle-focus Oh? The CEO actually said it? Ok then. “We have developed certain strains…” They’re already working with growers on strains and genetics? Ok. There are several legal cannabis markets for those products right now, international and stateside. I expect Playboy licensed hemp and THC pre-rolls by EOY. Something like this: https://www.etsy.com/listing/842996758/10-playboy-pre-roll-tubes-limited?ga_order=most_relevant&ga_search_type=all&ga_view_type=gallery&ga_search_query=pre+roll+playboy&ref=sr_gallery-1-2&organic_search_click=1 Maintaining cannabis operations can be costly and a regulatory headache. Playboy’s licensing strategy allows them to pick successful, established partners and sidestep traditional barriers to entry. You know what I like about these new markets? They’re expanding. Worldwide. And they are going to be a bigger deal than they already are with or without Playboy. Who thinks weed and gambling are going away? Too many people like that stuff. These are easy markets. And Playboy is early enough to carve out their spot in each. Fuck it, read this too: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimosman/2020/10/20/playboy-could-be-the-king-of-spacs-here-are-three-picks/?sh=2e13dcaa3e05
Numbers: You want numbers? I got numbers. As per the company’s most recent SEC filing:
“For the year ended December 31, 2019, and the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s historical consolidated revenue was $78.1 million and $101.3 million, respectively, historical consolidated net income (loss) was $(23.6) million and $(4.8) million, respectively, and Adjusted EBITDA was $13.1 million and $21.8 million, respectively.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Licensing segment contributed $44.2 million in revenue and $31.1 million in net income.”
“In the ninth months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Direct-to-Consumer segment contributed $40.2 million in revenue and net income of $0.1 million.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Digital Subscriptions and Content segment contributed $15.4 million in revenue and net income of $7.4 million.”
They are profitable across all three of their current business segments.
“Playboy’s return to the public markets presents a transformed, streamlined and high-growth business. The Company has over $400 million in cash flows contracted through 2029, sexual wellness products available for sale online and in over 10,000 major retail stores in the US, and a growing variety of clothing and branded lifestyle and digital gaming products.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
Growth: Playboy has massive growth in China and massive growth potential in India. “In China, where Playboy has spent more than 25 years building its business, our licensees have an enormous footprint of nearly 2,500 brick and mortar stores and 1,000 ecommerce stores selling high quality, Playboy-branded men’s casual wear, shoes/footwear, sleepwear, swimwear, formal suits, leather & non-leather goods, sweaters, active wear, and accessories. We have achieved significant growth in China licensing revenues over the past several years in partnership with strong licensees and high-quality manufacturers, and we are planning for increased growth through updates to our men’s fashion lines and expansion into adjacent categories in men’s skincare and grooming, sexual wellness, and women’s fashion, a category where recent launches have been well received.” The men’s market in China is about the same size as the entire population of the United States and European Union combined. Playboy is a leading brand in this market. They are expanding into the women’s market too. Did you know CBD toothpaste is huge in China? China loves CBD products and has hemp fields that dwarf those in the US. If Playboy expands their CBD line China it will be huge. Did you know the gambling money in Macau absolutely puts Las Vegas to shame? Technically, it's illegal on the mainland, but in reality, there is a lot of gambling going on in China. https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/10/19/magic-johnson-and-uncle-buds-cbd-brand-enter-china-via-tmall-partnership/?sh=271776ca411e “In India, Playboy today has a presence through select apparel licensees and hospitality establishments. Consumer research suggests significant growth opportunities in the territory with Playboy’s brand and categories of focus.” “Playboy Enterprises has announced the expansion of its global consumer products business into India as part of a partnership with Jay Jay Iconic Brands, a leading fashion and lifestyle Company in India.” “The Indian market today is dominated by consumers under the age of 35, who represent more than 65 percent of the country’s total population and are driving India’s significant online shopping growth. The Playboy brand’s core values of playfulness and exploration resonate strongly with the expressed desires of today’s younger millennial consumers. For us, Playboy was the perfect fit.” “The Playboy international portfolio has been flourishing for more than 25 years in several South Asian markets such as China and Japan. In particular, it has strategically targeted the millennial and gen-Z audiences across categories such as apparel, footwear, home textiles, eyewear and watches.” https://www.licenseglobal.com/industry-news/playboy-expands-global-footprint-india It looks like they gave COVID the heisman in terms of net damage sustained: “Although Playboy has not suffered any material adverse consequences to date from the COVID-19 pandemic, the business has been impacted both negatively and positively. The remote working and stay-at-home orders resulted in the closure of the London Playboy Club and retail stores of Playboy’s licensees, decreasing licensing revenues in the second quarter, as well as causing supply chain disruption and less efficient product development thereby slowing the launch of new products. However, these negative impacts were offset by an increase in Yandy’s direct-to-consumer sales, which have benefited in part from overall increases in online retail sales so far during the pandemic.” Looks like the positives are long term (Yandy acquisition) and the negatives are temporary (stay-at-home orders).
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921006093/tm213766-1_defa14a.htm
This speaks to their ability to maintain a financially solvent company throughout the transition phase to the aforementioned areas. They’d say some fancy shit like “expanded business model to encompass four key revenue streams: Sexual Wellness, Style & Apparel, Gaming & Lifestyle, and Beauty & Grooming.” I hear “we’re just biding our time with these trinkets until those dollar dollar bill y’all markets are fully up and running.” But the truth is these existing revenue streams are profitable, scalable, and rapidly expanding Playboy’s e-commerce segment around the world.
"Even in the face of COVID this year, we've been able to grow EBITDA over 100 percent and revenue over 68 percent, and I expect that to accelerate going into 2021," he said. “Playboy is accelerating its growth in company-owned and branded consumer products in attractive and expanding markets in which it has a proven history of brand affinity and consumer spend.”
Also in the SEC filing, the Time Frame:
“As we detailed in the definitive proxy statement, the SPAC stockholder meeting to vote on the transaction has been set for February 9th, and, subject to stockholder approval and satisfaction of the other closing conditions, we expect to complete the merger and begin trading on NASDAQ under ticker PLBY shortly thereafter,” concluded Kohn.
The Players: Suhail “The Whale” Rizvi (HMFIC), Ben “The Bridge” Kohn (CEO), “lil” Suying Liu & “Big” Dong Liu (Young-gun China gang). I encourage you to look these folks up. The real OG here is Suhail Rizvi. He’s from India originally and Chairman of the Board for the new PLBY company. He was an early investor in Twitter, Square, Facebook and others. His firm, Rizvi Traverse, currently invests in Instacart, Pinterest, Snapchat, Playboy, and SpaceX. Maybe you’ve heard of them. “Rizvi, who owns a sprawling three-home compound in Greenwich, Connecticut, and a 1.65-acre estate in Palm Beach, Florida, near Bill Gates and Michael Bloomberg, moved to Iowa Falls when he was five. His father was a professor of psychology at Iowa. Along with his older brother Ashraf, a hedge fund manager, Rizvi graduated from Wharton business school.” “Suhail Rizvi: the 47-year-old 'unsocial' social media baron: When Twitter goes public in the coming weeks (2013), one of the biggest winners will be a 47-year-old financier who guards his secrecy so zealously that he employs a person to take down his Wikipedia entry and scrub his photos from the internet. In IPO, Twitter seeks to be 'anti-FB'” “Prince Alwaleed bin Talal of Saudi Arabia looks like a big Twitter winner. So do the moneyed clients of Jamie Dimon. But as you’ve-got-to-be-joking wealth washed over Twitter on Thursday — a company that didn’t exist eight years ago was worth $31.7 billion after its first day on the stock market — the non-boldface name of the moment is Suhail R. Rizvi. Mr. Rizvi, 47, runs a private investment company that is the largest outside investor in Twitter with a 15.6 percent stake worth $3.8 billion at the end of trading on Thursday (November, 2013). Using a web of connections in the tech industry and in finance, as well as a hearty dose of good timing, he brought many prominent names in at the ground floor, including the Saudi prince and some of JPMorgan’s wealthiest clients.” https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/08/technology/at-twitter-working-behind-the-scenes-toward-a-billion-dollar-payday.html Y’all like that Arab money? How about a dude that can call up Saudi Princes and convince them to spend? Funniest shit about I read about him: “Rizvi was able to buy only $100 million in Facebook shortly before its IPO, thus limiting his returns, according to people with knowledge of the matter.” Poor guy :(
He should be fine with the 16 million PLBY shares he's going to have though :)
Shuhail also has experience in the entertainment industry. He’s invested in companies like SESAC, ICM, and Summit Entertainment. He’s got Hollywood connections to blast this stuff post-merger. And he’s at least partially responsible for that whole Twilight thing. I’m team Edward btw.
I really like what Suhail has done so far. He’s lurked in the shadows while Kohn is consolidating the company, trimming the fat, making Playboy profitable, and aiming the ship at modern growing markets.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-twitter-ipo-rizvi-insight/insight-little-known-hollywood-investor-poised-to-score-with-twitter-ipo-idUSBRE9920VW20131003
Ben “The Bridge” Kohn is an interesting guy. He’s the connection between Rizvi Traverse and Playboy. He’s both CEO of Playboy and was previously Managing Partner at Rizvi Traverse. Ben seems to be the voice of the Playboy-Rizvi partnership, which makes sense with Suhail’s privacy concerns. Kohn said this:
“Today is a very big day for all of us at Playboy and for all our partners globally. I stepped into the CEO role at Playboy in 2017 because I saw the biggest opportunity of my career. Playboy is a brand and platform that could not be replicated today. It has massive global reach, with more than $3B of global consumer spend and products sold in over 180 countries. Our mission – to create a culture where all people can pursue pleasure – is rooted in our 67-year history and creates a clear focus for our business and role we play in people’s lives, providing them with the products, services and experiences that create a lifestyle of pleasure. We are taking this step into the public markets because the committed capital will enable us to accelerate our product development and go-to-market strategies and to more rapidly build our direct to consumer capabilities,” said Ben Kohn, CEO of Playboy.
“Playboy today is a highly profitable commerce business with a total addressable market projected in the trillions of dollars,” Mr. Kohn continued, “We are actively selling into the Sexual Wellness consumer category, projected to be approximately $400 billion in size by 2024, where our recently launched intimacy products have rolled out to more than 10,000 stores at major US retailers in the United States. Combined with our owned & operated ecommerce Sexual Wellness initiatives, the category will contribute more than 40% of our revenue this year. In our Apparel and Beauty categories, our collaborations with high-end fashion brands including Missguided and PacSun are projected to achieve over $50M in retail sales across the US and UK this year, our leading men’s apparel lines in China expanded to nearly 2500 brick and mortar stores and almost 1000 digital stores, and our new men’s and women’s fragrance line recently launched in Europe. In Gaming, our casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth. Our product strategy is informed by years of consumer data as we actively expand from a purely licensing model into owning and operating key high-growth product lines focused on driving profitability and consumer lifetime value. We are thrilled about the future of Playboy. Our foundation has been set to drive further growth and margin, and with the committed capital from this transaction and our more than $180M in NOLs, we will take advantage of the opportunity in front of us, building to our goal of $100M of adjusted EBITDA in 2025.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
Also, according to their Form 4s, “Big” Dong Liu and “lil” Suying Liu just loaded up with shares last week. These guys are brothers and seem like the Chinese market connection. They are only 32 & 35 years old. I don’t even know what that means, but it's provocative.
https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1832415.htm
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-ii-002600994.html
Y’all like that China money?
“Mr. Liu has been the Chief Financial Officer of Dongguan Zhishang Photoelectric Technology Co., Ltd., a regional designer, manufacturer and distributor of LED lights serving commercial customers throughout Southern China since November 2016, at which time he led a syndicate of investments into the firm. Mr. Liu has since overseen the financials of Dongguan Zhishang as well as provided strategic guidance to its board of directors, advising on operational efficiency and cash flow performance. From March 2010 to October 2016, Mr. Liu was the Head of Finance at Feidiao Electrical Group Co., Ltd., a leading Chinese manufacturer of electrical outlets headquartered in Shanghai and with businesses in the greater China region as well as Europe.”
Dr. Suying Liu, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp., commented, “Playboy is a unique and compelling investment opportunity, with one of the world’s largest and most recognized brands, its proven consumer affinity and spend, and its enormous future growth potential in its four product segments and new and existing geographic regions. I am thrilled to be partnering with Ben and his exceptional team to bring his vision to fruition.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
These guys are good. They have a proven track record of success across multiple industries. Connections and money run deep with all of these guys. I don’t think they’re in the game to lose.
I was going to write a couple more paragraphs about why you should have a look at this but really the best thing you can do is read this SEC filing from a couple days ago. It explains the situation in far better detail. Specifically, look to page 137 and read through their strategy. Also, look at their ownership percentages and compensation plans including the stock options and their prices. The financials look great, revenue is up 90% Q3, and it looks like a bright future.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
I’m hesitant to attach this because his position seems short term, but I’m going to with a warning because he does hit on some good points (two are below his link) and he’s got a sizable position in this thing (500k+ on margin, I think). I don’t know this guy but he did look at the same publicly available info and make roughly the same prediction, albeit without the in depth gambling or cannabis mention. You can also search reddit for ‘MCAC’ and very few relevant results come up and none of them even come close to really looking at this thing.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1gOvAd6lebs452hFlWWbxVjQ3VMsjGBkbJeXRwDwIJfM/edit?usp=sharing
“Also, before you people start making claims that Playboy is a “boomer” company, STOP RIGHT THERE. This is not a good argument. Simply put. The only thing that matters is Playboy’s name recognition, not their archaic business model which doesn’t even exist anymore as they have completely repurposed their business.”
“Imagine not buying $MCAC at a 400M valuation lol. Streetwear department is worth 1B alone imo.”
Considering the ridiculous Chinese growth as a lifestyle brand, he’s not wrong.
Current Cultural Significance and Meme Value: A year ago I wouldn’t have included this section but the events from the last several weeks (even going back to tsla) have proven that a company’s ability to meme and/or gain social network popularity can have an effect. Tik-tok, Snapchat, Twitch, Reddit, Youtube, Facebook, Twitter. They all have Playboy stuff on them. Kids in middle and highschool know what Playboy is but will likely never see or touch one of the magazines in person. They’ll have a Playboy hoodie though. Crazy huh? A lot like GME, PLBY would hugely benefit from meme-value stock interest to drive engagement towards their new business model while also building strategic coffers. This interest may not directly and/or significantly move the stock price but can generate significant interest from larger players who will.
Bull Case: The year is 2025. Playboy is now the world leader pleasure brand. They began by offering Playboy licensed gaming products, including gambling products, direct to consumers through existing names. By 2022, demand has skyrocketed and Playboy has designed and released their own gambling platforms. In 2025, they are also a leading cannabis brand in the United States and Canada with proprietary strains and products geared towards sexual wellness. Cannabis was legalized in the US in 2023 when President Biden got glaucoma but had success with cannabis treatment. He personally pushes for cannabis legalization as he steps out of office after his first term. Playboy has also grown their brand in China and India to multi-billion per year markets. The stock goes up from 11ish to 100ish and everyone makes big gains buying somewhere along the way.
Bear Case: The United States does a complete 180 on marijuana and gambling. President Biden overdoses on marijuana in the Lincoln bedroom when his FDs go tits up and he loses a ton of money in his sports book app after the Fighting Blue Hens narrowly lose the National Championship to Bama. Playboy is unable to expand their cannabis and gambling brands but still does well with their worldwide lifestyle brand. They gain and lose some interest in China and India but the markets are too large to ignore them completely. The stock goes up from 11ish to 13ish and everyone makes 15-20% gains.
TL;DR: Successful technology/e-commerce investment firm took over Playboy to turn it into a porn, online gambling/gaming, sports book, cannabis company, worldwide lifestyle brand that promotes sexual wellness, vetern access, women-ownership, minority-ownership, and “pleasure for all”. Does a successful online team reinventing an antiquated physical copy giant sound familiar? No options yet, shares only for now. $11.38 per share at time of writing. My guess? $20 by the end of February. $50 by EOY. This is not financial advice. I am not qualified to give financial advice. I’m just sayin’ I would personally use a Playboy sports book app while smoking a Playboy strain specific joint and it would be cool if they did that. Do your own research. You’d probably want to start here:
WARNING - POTENTIALLY NSFW - SEXY MODELS AHEAD - no actual nudity though
https://s26.q4cdn.com/895475556/files/doc_presentations/Playboy-Craig-Hallum-Conference-Investor-Presentation-11_17_20-compressed.pdf
Or here:
https://www.mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/default.aspx
Jimmy Chill: “Get into any SPAC at $10 or $11 and you are going to make money.”
STL;DR: Buy MCAC. MCAC > PLBY couple weeks. Rocketship. Moon.
Position: 5000 shares. I will buy short, medium, and long-dated calls once available.

TENNISSSSSSSSSSSSS! It's back! All the hustle, all the glory, all the prison. An overload of that peaceful green thwacking arrived this week, with 3 ATP events, 3 WTA, and 2 high quality challengers. I'm like a kid who ate too many cookies right now. I missed watching tennis and chatting with the community here, although a lot of you have joined the picking competitions that u/kuklachert runs on discord. Little update on that before the writeup :
Kukla has taken the time to put together a really great and easy-to-use site to automate his tennis picking competitons. The Australian Open will be the first contest this site is public for, so if you're looking for a fun way to compete against your friends and predict tennis without losing money to shady books, check it out 🐢. Just sign up (totally free to join and compete), join the Australian Open comp, and start picking. The site automatically tracks all your results, and maintains a leaderboard. The chat (runs thru discord) is a great place to hang out while you're watching, and there are even some small cash prizes for the top 3 finishers. If you like picking tennis, or tennis, or cash, or prizes, or turtles, or turtles as prizes, or strawberries, or cookies, or tennis, then this is the site for you <3. Check it out here, and remember since it's new feedback is always welcome
Australian Open Picking Competition
​
Djokovic Chardy : A lot of top pro’s used the ATP Cup as a good opportunity to get some good quality low-pressure warm-up matches for the AO. Not Novak Djokovic. I got text after text asking why Djokovic was celebrating after every point against Shapovalov. The spectrum of emotion from Novak is wide, but rarely matches the situation on court. Personally, I like it. I like unpredictable smirking smashing smiling imploring to the sky swiping angrily at the ground and missing fistpumping at minor victories Novak, because the alternative is pretend to be a perfect guy Djokovic. More celebrities should realize it’s ok to be human. Unfortunately, this man is not human on the tennis court. He didn’t win in convincing fashion, but he never seems out of a match no matter what the scoreline is. The AO is his best event and although there are more significant contenders from the youth ranks than there have been in the past, he is well positioned to be the frontrunner.
Chardy has been playing some outrageous tennis the past few weeks (becoming my personal MVP by whipping Fritz in record time) after a rough couple years where he looked like he’d be stylishly playing his way off the tour. He’s serving well, his groundstrokes are clean, and he possesses the kind of quality tennis that can produce a great match with a top player. In 2/3 format, he could threaten to steal a set with good serving and Novak disinterest. Here, the mountain is too tall. Djokovic in 3.
Travaglia Tiafoe : Usually I’m excited when a player who can beat one of the American hype-train players is set to play Tiafoe, but this is a pretty unfortunate matchup. Travaglia has been grinding his way onto the tour for the past season with excellent serving performances and big shots when “reset the rally” seems like the obvious choice. It can backfire at times but similar to Berretini in his tour ascension Stefano has been fortuitous when it counts. He wears his hat backwards which is super cool when Europeans do it and awkward when Americans do it, and he has a pretty high level forehand. A deep run this week though will be tough to continue and with a finals still to play against Sinner, it’ll be tough to come into the AO completely fresh.
Tiafoe continues to play tennis like he’s in a reddit gif painting something beautiful on a canvas and you just can’t see what it is yet. He’s made huge leaps in quality in isolated spots each season, but is still a bit passive at times. That quality tennis takes time with a young player, so there is always the chance (like with Zverev or Bublik) that at some point he will simply be too good to fail. A testament to that is that an in-form Travaglia, who is a threat against any mid-range pro right now, is still an even proposition at best against the American. Considering the winner faces Djokovic, it’s pretty important for Tiafoe to win here as he brings his best game when he gets in the spotlight, and given his confidence is not based on realistic tennis expectations or results, getting matches against the top players in a “nothing to lose” situation is the quickest way he will finally open up his game and realize that he can compete at the top if he starts working on developing the same motor as Nadal and upping the level of aggression. In a very honest and open letter to Arthur Ashe he wrote earlier this year, he wrote that he’s lucky to be able to set himself and his family up financially, and also wants to help kids who have similar goals and dreams. You love to see athletes mature, and I think he’s right about that stability in his life and that he will do some great work off the court. He has at least a few seasons left on tour even if he goes 0-150, and I’d love to see his team believe that and have him open up and really find out what his ceiling is offensively. Tough match, and given Travaglia’s run in Adelaide this depends a lot on his physical conditioning. Big letdown spot, but this will likely go 5 sets even if he is a bit fatigued as Travaglia is just too sharp right now. Travaglia in 5 but I would not be surprised if there was a huge letdown in physical ability as a day or two to recover from a full week of matches including two a day in some spots is a big ask to follow up with a 3/5 performance. It feels like hedging to say that but I think knowing the things you don’t know is just as important as knowing the things you know.
Lu Opelka : Yen-hsun Lu, or hsunny bono as he’s known to his friends, has been entered in the AO under a protected ranking. His best result on tour was previously beating Alexander Zverev in the Canadian Open in a very big upset, and although he hasn’t been on tour for quite some time, and was pretty visibly behind that pace in his first round last week against Vukic, it might not be so important to be sharp from the baseline against his first opponent. Reilly Opelka looks like 3 kids on each other’s shoulders to sneak on the ATP tour, and while his big swinging from the baseline is a much better opportunity to win points than Isner’s “hit it to their backhand maybe?” strategy, he puts enough balls in the net to make is fairly easy to hold serve against him. Yen-hsun likely holds serve an ok amount of the time, and if Opelka struggles on first serve he may even break. He was outclassed in terms of power by Vukic though, and while he’s a better baseliner than Opelka the Opelka serve and forehand will have ample chances to put this one away. Opelka in 3-4.
Fritz Ramos-vinolas : Taylor Fritz, who spends most of his free time cosplaying as Gumby, has just not produced the results that were expected of him by the USTA. The tennis channel announcers keep wildly inflating public opinion of him, and it almost seems unfair to criticize him as those announcers are most of the reason I’m not a fan. Where I believe Tiafoe will continue to improve though, I think Fritz has kinda plateaud. The big serve and forehand combo was something the USTA got very invested in after Andy Roddick’s success on tour, and they have produced a great number of guys who are capable of winning against the bottom 50 of the top 100, but not really at all against anyone higher. Repetitive tennis is just difficult to win with, and perfecting a few shots leaves you at a deficit on the rest. Kyrgios has a better backhand than most of the Americans at this point and his is immediately a liability anytime he plays anyone on tour with an actual backhand.
I swore that I would say three nice things about Taylor Fritz for every round he advances, so here there are : 1) Taylor Fritz has eyes 2) Taylor Fritz often exhales carbon dioxide, which trees need to breathe. Good guy? Possibly. 3) Taylor Swift has some pretty good music, and although Taylor Fritz looks more like a snake that swallowed a rhombus, maybe they are the same person, or related or something? Possibly.
Ramos-vinolas is a guy who, similar to Pablo Andujar, has had only one or two real impact runs on hardcourt. He’s the pinnacle of smooth clay-court tennis, and needs a lot of time to produce his swings. Fritz was of little use breaking Chardy’s serve, but ARV doesn’t really serve aces. This has the potential to be a straightforward win for Fritz especially if he’s able to get his serve going. He really didn’t do that against Chardy, and it would be relatively unexpected if ARV won, but that’s based on expecting Fritz to get his serve going at some point in the match. He’ll net a lot more free points if he can and even though ARV is steady Fritz’ forehand will be the biggest (the only) weapon on court. It is foolish to really expect someone who hasn’t shown a level to suddenly produce a level, but Fritz in 4.
Sousa Wawrinka : Pedro Sousa plays tennis like he suspects every ball might be a piñata and he doesn’t want any candy getting anywhere near him. He did well to push Evans in their match last week, but couldn’t hold serve well. This will be the case here as well. Wawrinka is lackluster at times, and his willingness to go for broke sometimes combines with impatience to throw away service games, but he’s a heavy favorite here. Wawrinka in 3.
Polmans Fucsovics : Marc Polmans has a pretty neat hat. He looks ready to go beekeeping, and he may get the chance to as this is a difficult matchup. Human Ken-doll Marton Fucsovics is a better version of Polmans. Both thrives on extending rallies and moving the ball well from the baseline. Both don’t really generate free points on their serves. Polmans lost last week in an uninspiring loss to Bourchier and Fucsovics has been fairly consistent on beating lower-tier players. Bigger weapons, less hat-skills. Fucsovics in 3.
Milman Moutet : John Milman is one of the best guys on tour who plays without major weapons. His heart and sportsmanship are inspiring, but his game and backhand are such that he never really has a stranglehold on a match. It takes a lot of work, and it will take even more against Moutet. The emotional lefty has been hit or miss in the past few seasons after a breakout performance at the French vaulted him permanently onto the tour, but this week he played some excellent tennis and there’s no shame in losing to FAA given how well he’s played this week. This is a match where slight advantages in patterns will matter a lot. Milman’s backhand is workable but mundane. Moutet’s is as well. If either are able to make forehand vs backhand the pattern in rallies, they’ll have a slight edge. Moutet’s run is very good, but he has to earn his points the hard way too often and Milman will likely be played into form. Moutet is likely to get the early jump, but I suspect Milman will outlast him emotionally as Moutet has a very short fuse. Milman in 5.
Raonic Coria : Raonic continues to play solid tennis, and this is a rewarding first round match. Coria is extremely consistent, quick, and produces upsets when players are off their game. He struggles though against big servers and there really is no bigger than Raonic. The best thing about Raonic is that his sexy legs don’t awaken anything strange in me at all. Haha. What? Haha. Raonic in 3.
Ruusuvuori Monfils : If you’ve been following Ruusuvuori’s progress at all you’ve seen him vault to prominence and then struggle. This is a common phenomenon on tour. Once players start coming in as 3 to 1 favorites and are expected to win against lower tier players, it’s almost like they feel pressured to produce tennis that’s out of their comfort zone, and they tend to struggle. There wasn’t much to separate Coric and Ruus last week, and the baseline rallies were very enjoyable. Books actually opened Ruus as a slight favorite here, and I think that’s fair but tricky.
Monfils didn’t do much in the ATP Cup, but France didn’t even send their best players. Losing to Berretini doesn’t mean losing to the rest of the tour, and Monfils is particularly difficult to predict. These spots where the underperforming veteran is underpriced are often a bit trappy, and I’m a big fan of Ruusuvuori’s game but it takes a lot of work to hit through Monfils especially from the baseline where Ruusuvuori does it from.
Monfils has ankle injuries in his past, and a neck problem that ended his 2020 season. He is a question mark until he notches a victory on tour, but there’s no reason to think that he can’t win this match, even if backing him is like backing Benoit Paire. If he’s motivated, Monfils in 4-5. If he’s in the “anderson/nishikori” mode of gradually easing his way back on tour, Ruusuvuori will like win in 3.
Martinez Nishioka : Pedro Martinez made a splash last year in the rankings by winning a ton of matches on clay, and even some on hardcourt. For a clay-courter he plays a very offensive style, and the margins he plays with are also small enough that hardcourt tennis isn’t out of his reach. He didn’t do much last week against Mikael Torpegaard but Torpegaard came into that event very hot and his serving game is big enough to really give him an edge against a guy who earns his points like Martinez. Nishioka is the polar opposite of Torpegaard and the lefty is a big name even if his results haven’t vaulted him to stardom yet. He is exhausting to hit through and has been supremely unlucky in some big matches. I don’t consider Nishioka a significant favorite in this match, but he “should” win. Martinez has a very good baseline ability, and has been a consistent problem for lower tier players. Nishioka is a mid-tier baseliner at his best, and he hasn’t been at his best. If Martinez had beaten Torpegaard last week, I’d like him to win this outright. As it stands, I still do but this is a match where Nishioka in his best form can present an extremely frustrating wall to play against. Martinez in 4-5.
Bublik Bedene : Bublik plays tennis for money. A fair enough quote, but one that has led to a lot of people doubting his effort in smaller events. It’s one of those “don’t tell even if they ask” situations. The higher you get on tour, the harder it is emotionally to push yourself for smaller prize money. There are a lot of wonderful simple-minded people who tell you not to look at things realistically. “Always believe you can win!” “Never let your opponent see you weak!” I appreciate Bublik’s honesty, and I don’t think his attitude has affected his results more than he’s comfortable with. He has fun on the court, and he’s not emotionally invested in becoming the best. If he were though, this match is one he can easily win. In a W for the ‘ol cliche spewers, bad habits do create bad performances, and he often makes questionable choices because he plays so free. When you’re willing to hit any shot, you have a lot of difficult decisions on every ball, and if you’re not winning matches you can make a few errors in a match and lose.
On the opposite side of the philosophical spectrum is Aljaz Bedene. Bedene plays a straightforward yet skillful game, and constantly moves his opponent. Hitting to the open court following a fairly good (but less than dominant) serve is the plan, and Bedene isn’t exactly physically dominant so he has really taken advantage of every chance he gets to grab points on tour. Bublik’s serve can keep him in any match, and his ability to get to net can pressure a lot of players, but Bedene’s pretty secure on his ballstriking on both wings and he’s a guy who will generally convert most of his shots down the line which is extremely important against a serve-and-volleyer. Bublik is a likeable Kyrgios; he can always win a match with great serving and creativity, but here he’s like Monfils in that he’ll have to prove he’s committed a few times before I believe him each season. With a questionable work ethic, Bublik doesn’t really shut down his opponents belief, so there’s going to be ample motivation and little pressure for Bedene. Bedene in 4.
Lajovic Stakhovsky : There are a handful of Stakhovsky wins in the h2h records for these two, but Lajovic won the most recent contest. Having come off some losing performances at the ATP Cup, Lajovic comes in with better match prep but worse results. Beating Kubler and Zapata Miralles in AO qualifying is very good practice for playing Lajovic, so Stakhovsky comes into this one not expected to win in terms of names and stages of their career, but with a puncher’s chance as his experience on tour and quality serving makes him a threat once he gets to the end of sets.
The -240 +200 line doesn’t really match the markets for these two players. Stakhovsky is relatively unknown to a lot of people if they don’t follow the challenger tour or are recent fans of tennis. Lajovic isn’t a worldbeater but you would expect him to be more in the -300 range here. Similar to Martinez/Nishioka, this is a good spot for the underdog to win if Lajovic takes too long to find his form. Lajovic may be able to run Stakhovsky into the ground, but he’ll need to do so quick at Stakhovsky is holding serve at a good clip. Someone with a cool name in 5.
Novak Mannarino : A great week for Novak as it always is when Austria gets into an international comp. Dennis has a sharp game and can compete with most of the bottom 50 on tour, but struggles to really move up the rankings. This is a good opportunity, as Mannarino tends to slump and then prosper on tour, and this appears to be a slump stretch after his loss last week to Giron. A loss in the non-competition round to Mahut doesn’t mean a lot for Novak, and after watching Fognini press against PCB today, Novak’s quick dismissal of him looks even better. Novak’s game I’d describe as a light version of Fucsovics, and as he does his best work at the AO, this is a good spot for him. Novak in 5.
Majchrzak Kecmanovic : This is that Wheel of Fortune puzzle they give you when you already won too much money. Majchrzak is great but hasn’t really broken onto the tour in a major way yet. He has too much trouble defending his serve and doesn’t win points easily. It’s always tough to win on tour without big weapons even if you’re very solid. Kecmanovic has somehow done exactly that at times though. He’s struggled with some injuries, but after watching his match with Sinner, it’s become clear that a lot of his struggles are simply unlucky decisions on big points. He had several simple shots with open court at the end of a tiebreaker, and managed to find Sinner’s racquet as he guessed and scrambled. Inconsequential in a certain sense, but stuff like that can wear on you over time and shred belief.
Coming into this match I think Kecmanovic is playing a bit better than Maj. He’d been struggling for quite some time, but seems to have somewhat found his serving and forehand again which have been pretty unreliable for at least a season. Since this is a baseline match, I’ll take the more experienced baseliner, but I would expect a lot of momentum swings here. Kecmanovic in 4.
Cressy Daniel : The people upset about Shapo/Sinner will not enjoy seeing these kinda contests sitting in the first round. Maxime Cressy is a pretty entertaining player, because he serve and volleys on almost 100% of his serves. He follows in the good ones, the bad ones, and it can result in some stolen sets and frustration if his opponents start missing. Across the net will be a guy he’s beaten in 2019 and a good opportunity to get to the second round. Taro Daniel is a solid enough player and has a good atttitude, but similar to Milman there is nothing to really put matches away when he has them in control. He’ll need to return well and keep steady on his own serve in order to win, and that’s not unheard of since he’s a pretty hard worker, but this match will likely be on Cressy’s racquet. Like Paire, the heavy aggressive shot selection can often spike Cressy out of matches quickly. He had a good run in qualifying, but didn’t really win by a clear margin too often. It’ll likely be a similar case here, and both players will have their opportunities to win. Someone who secretly hates the other ones style in 5. I’d lean Cressy.
Giron Zverev : Tough stuff for Giron, who looked pretty good in spots against Evans last week but just couldn’t find the final shots to end rallies. Zverev is of questionable value as a person, but his tennis is off the charts at this point. He’s starting to play aggressive again as he did when he first got on tour, and his serving woes are starting to disappear the same way Kyrgios’ did after a season of just plain going for it on second serves. I will find plenty of negative things to say about the blonde bumshell later, but for now, this is a tough match for Zverev that his talent will likely drag him through fairly easily. Giron has a good serve, and a smooth forehand, so he won’t just disappear here, but his best big wins (Raonic/Berretini) have been when those players were struggling to find their best game. Zverev in 4.
Kukushkin Thiem : Kukushkin had a good warmup for this playing Wawrinka last week, but this is not a realistic upset. Thiem is one of the guys who could win this event and it wouldn’t even be a surprise, and he’s one of the most consistent performers in majors of late. Thiem in 3.
Dellien Koepfer : Interesting first round for these guys. It really is frustrating but also great that lower tier guys manage to wind up in the draw playing each other because the points are really useful and the prize money can pay for a whole year of travel if you win. Dellien just isn’t a consistent performer on hardcourts, doing his best on clay and not really breaking through his original plateau on tour. He’s a guy who’ll always be around the 100 ranked range because he can play lockdown defense, but Koepfer has a good enough handle on his offensive abilities to avoid the errors that would put this match in question. One they’re out there, he’ll have to produce, but the match will be on Koepfer’s racquet. This is where players struggle, slated to win and after the initial buzz around them has died down, but Koepfer gets the nod here as Dellien winning would be a fairly big surprise. Koepfer in 4.
Kyrgios Ferreira Silva : Kyrgios put on an interesting performance this week. He spent most of his time flexing his knee, and seemed like he’d be withdrawing like he generally does, but he moved around the court well and completed (you’re not gonna believe this) ALL HIS MATCHES. I couldn’t actually believe he didn’t skip out on the Coric match,but I’m willing to applaud any progress from Nick, so playing through injury this week is a big step. That unfortunately leads me to my criticisms. Nick is generally grabbing or referencing an injury in any match where he struggles, and this is questionable because A) this is what players do when they’re trying to protect their egos and B) a player who doesn’t really care about the game (his words) playing injured doesn’t seem like someting you’d see. If his team has any concern about Nick, they shouldn’t really let him go out there injured. If he’s not someone you can control or influence, then it’s strange that he always references the pressure he feels to play tennis even though he doesn’t enjoy it. If the injuries are 100% legitimo, then I’d like to feel bad, but it’s pretty obvious that his training isn’t up to the level of the tour, and the simplest way to injure yourself is to try to compete at an elite pace when your muscles/joints aren’t used to that strain. Shrug.
This week’s edition of Kyrgios nonsense included constantly leaving his towel on the floor, and complaining about the shotclock. Oddly, no other player had difficulties placing their towel on the designated spot. This culminated in the umpire giving him a time violation serving at 40-30 while NICK WAS IN HIS SERVICE MOTION. I get the frustration of an ump getting chirped at the entire match, but giving a child something to harp on is a mistaaaaaake. Nick put his racquet down, announced he refused to play, and had to have a parental figure come out and tell him he was right before he got back on the court. Unfortunately, the “i didnt wanna do this bro” act worked on Bourchier, and the extended break left Bourchier furious and off his game. So am I sick of Kyrgios? No. Because that serve is just ridiculous. The forehand is absurd. The skill when he is on control of rallies is wonderful, and the urge to entertain is strong in him. He gets into spots where a second serve double fault will sink his chances, and he hits aces nonstoooooop. It’s just amazing, and while I am not a fan of his penchant for cosplaying a 4 year old who’s been sent to bed, he presents a completely unique spectacle on court.
Does he have an opponent? It seems so. Ferreira Silva had a very good time in the late South American swing on clay, and has followed it up for a couple hardcourt wins. He has a solid lefty game and is the type of player who generally produces wins when he’s supposed to. This is a bit much to ask of him, since Nick can comfortably serve his way through, but where Bourchier and Muller were somewhat distracted by the moment, Ferreira is likely to have his head down and be pressing for every error and lapse in attention that Kyrgios offers. With Nick’s knee being questionable, it’s best to avoid this match as a bettor, and I think Ferreira Silva is unlikely to disappear but will have a tough time finding breaks. Kyrgios in 4 and then later we’ll catch him reading books with a flashlight to be rebellious.
Men's draw continued in comments. Women's round 1 will be up in a few hours : )