Look first of all I'd like to be honest with you, I'm not going to claim I "stumbled" upon some "crazy secret system" that nobody knows. In fact, probably more than a few people know what I'm talking about in this article. The truth is that I've been playing the Preakness among many other horse races, for at least 15 years.
The Preakness is the first throroughbred race I ever attended, back in the 1990's. I had played at harness tracks, having been introduced to that at a young age, but had never been to a throroughbred track until 1996.
That year, my good friend and fellow horseplayer convinced me we should go to Pimlico for a big infield party and some big horse races would break out at some point. I didn't know or care much about anything except the infield party and thought it would be fun. We brought a 12 pack and settled in.
Early in the afternoon on the way up, we tuned in to the Baltimore rock station and were hearing all kinds of live music from some of our favorite bands such as Pearl Jam. We were just about pissed off at the fact that we missed some of these bands live, only to show up and find it was just a DJ playing live cuts, and the few local bands on deck hadn't even started playing yet.
I was young and after the party was over and horse races had broke out, I was wondering why Louis Quatorze had won the Preakness and we hadn't bet on him. After that I began some more analysis and started using some figures from Brisnet to help me analyze the races.
A couple years later I liked Charismatic in the Kentucky Derby, among like 10 other horses, but failed to have the right trifecta boxes since I had little clue what I was doing. I liked him in the Preakness as well, still at good odds since people thought his Derby victory was a fluke, but again failed to have the right trifecta when Badge showed up. But at that point I realized that a pattern was emerging.
Eventually I figured this stuff out, although hard-headed about it and unwilling to part from numerical analysis from numbers that I didn't even know how were calculated. I found out it didn't really take a any magic numbers or even much analysis for a basic wagering strategy.
With few exceptions, the Preakness is one of the easiest races to bet. Take the top (4-5) horses from the Kentucky Derby that run at Pimlico two weeks later, and undoubtedly 2 of them will finish in the top 4, in fact, usually the top two horses from the Derby will finish 1-2 in the Preakness. It's really that simple.
After that you do have to put in some analysis to figure out which "outsiders" will infiltrate the trifecta, or possibly even win the Preakness, along with the Kentucky Derby contingent. There are various tools to use to accomplish this but I normally use one I invented.
Unsatisfied with numbers from various other people and organizations with their secret calculations that I did not understand, I decided to make algorithms to create my own numbers and put them into what I call the Grid.
Last year, the Grid gave me Preakness winner Shackleford at 13-1 as the top Speed and Power horse. It was an obvious key horse for me and automatic win bet at those kind of odds. Plus, he was a top four Derby finisher. Apparently people forgot he finished 4th not 14th in the Derby, which was very respectable for a frontrunner.
Combine him with Derby winner and obvious favorite Animal Kingdom at 2nd, and take Astrology as an improving horse with 4th best Early Pace according to the Grid in 3rd place, and you have a very easy trifecta payout. Add Dialed In, the best Late Pace horse coming off a disappointing but respectable 8th place Derby finish, and you have a very easy superfecta.
This is what I call the anatomy of a perfect Preakness exotic bet. You take any of the top 4 Derby finishers that are running at Pimlico, and key them and 1 and 2, get the "outsider" that didn't run in the Derby at good odds, and add another strong contender, usually from the Derby, such as a good late runner for 4th.
You would be surprised how many times the Preakness plays out this way. Often the same horse will win the Preakness that won the Derby, which has happened less in the last few years but they still often finish in the money. And in fact the top two in the Derby often run 1-2 at the Preakness.
So using the top Derby horses is obvious but where will you find the "outsiders" that will undoubtedly take up a spot or two in the superfecta? Well that is tough to come up with by yourself. Normally you will need more of an advanced handicapping tool for that, which is why I use the Grid. I can tell you that the outsider is almost always at odds from 12-1 to 15-1 so that narrows it down.
The year before last the Grid of course gave me the Preakness winner, but only at 2-1 and not much value there, obviously. But also it gave me 11 of 13 winners that day including some nice long shots that provided good exotic payouts.
Of course, since I wrote this, it could just happen that the top Derby horses will finish 1-4 in the Preakness, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if that happens. Especially since of my top 6 Derby winning contenders, out of 20, 4 of them finished 1-4 in the Derby.
So now you know the basic strategy now for betting the Preakness. You just need to find the right long shot or two to add to your obvious Derby contenders for some nice exotic payouts. If I were you, I'd use the Grid to get them, but that's just because it always comes through for me in these situations.

I am going to like a lot of horses that will get good odds in today's races. You can use your own judgement whether you will want to take a risk or not, but that is really my best game. I struggle the most when I try to put too many favorites in the mix or when the races results in a lot of favorites doing what they are supposed to do. While I am use to waiting until my horses runs the way I expect them to, I can also understand others who might get impatient. The rewards always outweighs the frustration but it took me years to figure that part out. And it will anyone else also that plays the races the way I do. But value is what will eventually determine whether you win or lose over the long run, another fact that I spent years before I realized it.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1st Race:
7)Contendress(9-2) Has made two starts, first race tried to contest the early pace and faded. 2nd race, laid off the pace and tried to make up late ground but finished fairly even. Now adds blinkers and looks fast enough to outbreak the favorites if the blinkers helps. The unknown is the other first time starters who shows speed in their works. Her sire, Competitive Edge, a son of Ky Derby winner Super Saver, broke his maiden in his first start, in wire to wire fashion finishing clear by 10+ lengths at Saratoga in 109 4/5.
4)Mysteriously(8-1) First time starter that has some good works for debut. Both sire, Tiznow and broodmare sire, Bernardini, were better in middle distance races, her 2nd dam, Burmilla, a daughter of Storm Cat, won her first two starts, both at 6 furlongs and both in 110 flat at two different tracks. With her, the break will be the key.
3)Josephine Baker(9-5) has made one start and set an uncontested pace but faded when challenged. However, her trainer is leading the trainer standing comfortably this year and will have to include. Also will run with lasix for the first time in her 2nd start and both her works since were more likely maintenance breezes to keep her fit.
1)Chez Paree(3-1) Has made one start and contested the pace throughout but could not get by the wire to wire winner while clear of the rest. Two works since that effort, including her last which suggests she should take a step forward. Broodmare sire, Defrere, was always overshadowed by his full brother, Dehere, a champion 2 YO Colt and sire of Take Charge Lady, among others, but both were known for siring foals that had high speed. Definitely not out of it, but will have more front running speed to contend with.
Bets: $5 Ex Box 4-7($10), $1 Tri Box 3-4-7($6), .10 Super Box 1-3-4-7(2.40), $1 Super Key 7 with 1-3-4 with 1-3-4 with 1-3-4($6). Total Risk $24.40.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2nd Race:
6)Lyman(20-1) has made one start and trailed the field. However, he tossed his head at the start, was leaned on in the early stages by the runaway winner and simply gave others to much of a head start, especially in a race that was that quick. Now two more works since, one easy and the other that shows he has some fronting speed. A better break and a cleaner trip should put him over the top.
1)High Heater(6-1) First time starter. Trainer is 10% lifetime winning trainer and normally prepares his trainees with a series of slow works. To me, that six furlong work just before his first effort should give him plenty of wind. High Heater has shown flashes of speed in a couple of his works and his bloodlines suggests he should be high speed. His sire, Creative Cause, broke his maiden in his debut at the old Hollywood Park in 56 4/5 seconds for five furlongs and took the Best Pal S in his 2nd start in a 115 3/5 for 6 1/2 furlongs.
5)Top Justice(12-1) Another first time starter. He has some good works for his debut, including a 6 furlong work like my second choice that should help. While his trainer has a 8% lifetime winning percentage in his ninth year as a trainer, he trains mostly cheap stock and spots them aggressively, and has banked more than $7M without a big name runner. Top Justice sire, Danza won a maiden race in his first start, the Arkansas Derby in his 4th career start and finished 3rd to California Chrome in the 2014 Ky Derby, his career finale.
9)Fast Dreamer(9-2)Another first time starter. He also has some good works and bloodlines. However, trainer stop on him for almost a month before putting in his two best work for his first start. But the stoppage as he was approaching being ready always raises a red flag, because it usually indicates a minor ailment or sickness, so I will include underneath mostly.
Bets: $10 WP 6($20), $5 Ex Box 1-6($10), $1 Tri Box 1-5-6($6), .10 Super Box 1-5-6-9($2.40), .50 Super Key 6 with 1-5-9 with 1-5-9 with 1-5-9($3). Total Risk $41.40.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3rd Race:
6)Detour(15-1) She has made for starts and has not placed in any. However, her trainer has been trying to get her back on grass since her first effort and looks like he might get that opportunity here. Her last two was switched to the AWT which is probably not the surface she wants. Her sire, Bellamy Road, smashed the stakes record in the 2005 Wood Memorial and came 1/5 second off Riva Ridge's track record set when he was 4 YO in 1973. Detour's female family has quite a bit of grass influence. Three works since her last effort for a trainer who has more success on grass than the AWT.
3)Just A Look(12-1) First time starter that has some good works and nice bloodlines for grass. Dam won 3 of 7 lifetime starts, all three on grass, including a listed stakes, with a late kick in Southern California. While her works has been a little inconsistent for my taste, her trainer will sneak a live one through, on occasion.
7)Meghan(5-1) She has made 4 lifetime starts, with one third her only board finish. However, she has had the same problem as my top choice, in that her trainer has tried to get her back on grass after her first effort, and in fact, this makes the four race in a row that they faced each other. While she has beaten my top choice all three times, it was by a nose, nose and 1/4 length, on surfaces she should have had a small advantage on.
5)Quality Too Spare(6-1) She has made three starts, with a third in her last her best effort. While I normally try to find a trainer who has a little more success than this one(no wins yet), she has enough speed to clear early and could hang on for a minor reward, depending on what how bad the others might fade.
Bets: $10 WP 6($20), Ex Box 3-6($10), $1 Tri Box 3-6-7($6), .10 Super Box 3-5-6-7($2.40), .50 Super Key 6 with 3-5-7 with 3-5-7 with 3-5-7($3). Total Risk $41.40.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4th Race:
7)Blue Sky Kowboy(20-1) Has made 3 starts this year after an seven month break. Won his 2nd start, though it was restricted to state bred and was his first other than grass win and then ran poor against in a state bred stakes race, also moved to the AWT from grass. Though his recent stats shows otherwise, trainer has more than held his own with grass runners throughout his career. Just believe he is ready to give his best effort this year.
6)My Bariley(4-1) Has made 4 starts since his last winning effort, with two against graded stakes horse and another in a stakes which he has previously won. Also holds a recent class edge against these with a good work since his last effort. The one to beat.
8)Cuestion De Tempo(5-1) Has made 4 starts since an eight month break, with his last arguably the best effort since he returned. He has recorded two good works since his last and a mile fits him better than others in here.
3)Marzo(9-2) Has made 5 starts this year, winning his fourth start as an odds on favorite, most likely because others seen his yearling purchase price of $1M. However, that buyer(Coolmore) has long decided he did not have the ability they originally thought he had and decided to cut their losses and move on for $35K. That win was in a conditioned allowance, so I doubt he can do much better than a minor share, though his trainer has turned around the fortunes of several horses. This, so far, does not look like one of those times, though.
Bets: $10 WP 7($20), $5 Ex Box 6-7($10), $1 Tri Box 6-7-8($6), $3 Tri Key 6-7 with 6-7 with 8($6), .10 Super Box 3-6-7-8($2.40). Total Risk $44.40.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5th Race:
8)Jazz Channel(5-1) Made one start on AWT and showed speed to top of stretch before tiring slightly. Now switches to grass which is the surface she should prefer most. One maintenance work since that effort should help make the forward move necessary to compete in this race. Her sire, English Channel, ran his best races on grass and most of his foals seems to like grass much better than AWTs or dirt. Her broodmare sire, Bernardini is better known for his abilities on dirt and his best foals has followed suit, though a few had shown they like the grass more.
9)Summer Day(12-1) First time starter. Has the workout pattern that has proven most beneficial to me. Both her sire, Sky Mesa, and her broodmare sire, Empire Maker, were G1 winners on dirt but never tried the grass. However, both their pedigrees suggests they could possibly have been even better on that surface, judging by the foals they have produce. Trainer normally only wins a few every year from limited runners, but Summer Day's 2nd dam, G3 SW Summer Mis, was his top runner and her daughter, Summer Again, spent her career in Illinois under his care, though neither was tried on grass.
5)Fall Moon(12-1) First time starter. Also has the workout pattern that seems to work best, working consistently every 7 days. Her sire, Lea, was a G1 SW on dirt and a G3 SW and G1 Placed on grass. However, he has Giant's Causeway and Galileo cross, so both surfaces have suited him. Broodmare sire, Quality Road, also was a G1 SW on dirt but his foals have performed well on both, especially around the mile distances.
2)Aunt Dorothy(9-2) Made one start and finished third. Pedigree fits nicely against these. One work since that effort which was a little too fast for my liking, but trainer tends to make right call more often than not, especially for grass. About a second slower and would have been my second choice and biggest perceived threat to my top choice.
Bets: $10 WP 8($20), $5 Ex Box 8-9($10), $1 Tri Box 5-8-9($6), .10 Super Box 2-5-8-9($2.40), $1 Super Key 8 With 2-5-9 with 2-5-9 with 2-5-9. Total Risk $44.40.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
6th Race:
1)Buttered Noodles(8-1) Has made one start. Tracked front runners, made a bid for the lead at the half then flatten out and faded on the AWT. Has two good works, including a 6 furlong work that is rarely seen in racing today, but used to be an angle as effective as first time lasix when a vet had to determine if bleeding occurred during a race or workout. Buttered Noodles's sire is City Zip, sire of known sprinters/milers on all surfaces. His dam, Flowerbomb, is 1/2 sister to Materiality and My Miss Sophia. She won twice in 14 starts, both at 1 1/16 mile, an AWT maiden race and N/W 2 allowance on grass.
Recklessness(15-1) Has made one start. Broke slowly and pick up horses while not making a dent into the runaway winner margin but just missed catching the runner up. Even good works before that effort proved futile. No works since but returns in 2 weeks, so another work would have been a little too much. A better start is expected. His sire, Midshipman, won the G1 Del Mar Futurity & G1 BC Juvenile Dirt, beating Pioneerof The Nile in the latter while landing 2 YO Champion Colt Award and is a 1/2 brother to the dam of Frosted. His dam made one start on grass and like her son, broke slowly and made up a little ground. 2nd dam won 5 of 18 starts, all at mid distances on dirt including a small stakes race.
9)Mister Not Funny(12-1) Made one start in the same race as my top choice. His works before that effort signaled a mid pack finish was most likely and that is where he finished after break slowly and waiting until the stretch to give his best effort, in a distance much to short and likely not best surface either. He goes with first time lasix in here and a surface and distance that he should perform better in, off two similar works as before his first effort. Still, improvement is expected and could surprise.
7)The Gray Blur(5-1) Made one start and exits out of the race as two of my other choices in here, which I normally will not even consider putting that many together from same effort. However, he ran an even race and basically was eliminated at the start with a less than ideal break for him. His sire, Fast Anna, hails from the same sire line(El Prado) and dam line(Kitten's First) as Kitten's Joy. The Gray Blur's dam line will also help him on this surface. Two works, including a solid one and the addition of blinkers could be all he needs to take this field from gate to wire. Beware!
Bets: $10 WP 1($20), $5 Ex Box 1-3($10), $1 Tri Box 1-3-9($6), $3 Tri Key 1 with 3-9 with 3-9($6), .10 Super Box 1-3-7-9($2.40), .50 Super Key 1 with 3-7-9 with 3-7-9 with 3-7-9($3). Total Risk $47.40.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
7th Race:
4)Rustic Rick(30-1) He returned from a 7 month break, took a few races to get in his best form and then sprung a major upset two starts back in his fourth effort since his return. Has three lifetime efforts on grass, all at one mile, but was asked to face much too tough in his last in his first start against winner. This will be his first time getting a firm turf with competition that simply matches his ability at best. His sire, Country Day, won several sprint grass stakes but also finished 2nd in the 2011 BC Turf Sprint. Dam, Ric Rac, won 4 of 19 lifetime starts, all 4 on grass at either a mile or 1 1/16 mile. No works since his first effort against winners, but returns in two weeks.
2)Jackfruit(20-1) Also broke his maiden 2 back on the AWT and then entered against winners in the same type class level in next. But he finally gets the surface he was really bred for, though he takes a couple steps up in class. His sire, Get Stormy, was a multiple G1 SW, earning more than $1.6M in his racing career. Dam, Ride 'Em Cowgirl, won her only stakes in an off the turf on the AWT, but also ran 2nd in a grass stakes race. This family traces much deeper than these two, but this is enough to let me come to my decision on whether to include or not.
12)Bird(30-1) Made one start and broke his maiden in same class as my 2nd choice. He has a pedigree that suggests he will perform pretty good on grass also, though not as close up in his bloodlines as my choice above him. Sire, Gio Ponti, was a multiple G1 SW on grass and two time grass champion in the U.S. Bird's 3rd dam, Oh What A Dance, produced Heavenly Prize, a G! champion herself and producer of Pure Prize and Good Reward, both foals of Storm Cat and better known for their grass runners.
3)True Loyalty(6-1) He will be working on his fourth start since a 10 month break, with improvement noted in his last. This is one of my angle horse that I will normally not bet against, but I like the others as good or better. While he has no works since his last and comes into this race off a three week break, that is borderline for me to consider him. Exercise helps horses first to get in racing shape and then to maintain that fitness.
This will be one race that I will be sure to box a dime superfecta and "waste" $2.40. It this type of payoff potential that I have always mentioned over and over. The potential for a dime super returning $7-8K makes it a bet I will not let pass me by, but others can.
Bets: $10 WP 4($20), $5 Ex Box 2-4($10), $1 Tri Box 2-4-12($6), .10 Super Box 2-3-4-12($2.40), $1 Super Key 4 with 2-3-12 with 2-3-12 with 2-3-12($6). Total Risk $44.40.
---------------------------------------------------------------
8th Race:
2)Dazzling Truths(20-1) Made four starts this year with a third his best effort. Here is a horse that actually proves what wotks can do to your fitness and form. His workouts pattern has been spotty and ineffective. 2 works in 23 days to prepare for first start in almost 5 months. Then wheeled back in 9 days and 18 days, which is ok but on outer edge of moving a horse forward. Then a 53 day layoff with 2 works a month apart and he ran flat. So the only reason I will use him in here is most seems like they would rather sprint and he wheels back yet again in 11 days, which is enough time to recuperate but still have what conditioning he got from his last effort left. Edge in a wide open field.
4)Can't Hide From Me(7-2) Unbeaten in three starts but now changes barn and has one slow work since his last effort. Not sure he wants a mile distance but his connections picked a good spot to find out. However, while field is fairly weak, he is be facing his toughest test yet.
1)Sovereign Impact(20-1) Claimed out of his last start by connections who tends to get the best results from their trainees. He has won 2 sprints, one at 5 furlongs and one at 6 furlongs, both on Indiana Downs speed favoring track that often helps front runners look better than they actually are. Has had very little impact in races away from that track. One fairly decent work since the claim.
11) Dabo(5-1) Only one in field that has proven that this distance is within his scope, but both wins have came in races restricted to state breds. His maiden win at 6 furlongs came against open breds and his last to first effort saw him beat my top choice in the first start of his career. He has several good efforts while overmatched in Turfway Park 3 YO preps for the Ky Derby. Sharp right now as he wheels back in two weeks.
Bets: $5 Ex Box 2-4($10), $1 Tri Box 1-2-4($6), .10 Super Box 1-2-4-11($2.40). Total Risk $18.40.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
9th Race:
6)Magic Wand(3-1) Wanted no part of Enable in last, but not many does. She has some races that makes her a contender for the win. Only difference,is she has tried the boys in top races on several occasions over here and ran respectable in them. like her stablemate, she contested Europe's biggest 3 YO fillies races last year.
1)Fleeting(5-2) Making first U.S. start after running in top 3 YO fillies races in Europe. Nicely bred horse who is bred along the same lines as the favorite in here. Only trainer that could possibly give Brown fits with his own handling of his fillies stars, though he is better in Europe when he does not have to travel half way around the globe.
7) Sistercharlie(8-5) Most likely will be odds on and I will try to beat. Makes 2nd start this year but like usual, Brown had her fit for her first test. 2 more good works and looks like that race took nothing out of her. Won this race last year in a contest between 3 Brown's trainees. One to beat.
5)Remember Daisy(30-1) Gets the acid test now but has shown some ability in her career. Though not likely to beat the top three, I will try to beat the rest in here with this one. No works since last, but trainer has farm nearby and probably has used it to keep her fit.
Bets: .50 Super Box 1-5-6-7($12), $3 Super Key 6 with 1-5-7 with 1-5-7 with 1-5-7($18). Total Risk $30.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10th Race:
7)Valid Point(5-1) Has not started since early June but has the best workout pattern since, and Brown is the one I first started noticing it with. Unbeaten in two starts and bred well enough to make it three, especially since the distance has been shorten to a mile on grass.
5)Ry's The Guy(15-1) Broken his maiden two back and then won his first level allowance race in his last and first effort on grass. As his bloodlines suggests, he put in his best performance to date when entered on the correct surface. Definitely not out of this and could surprise. Sire, Distorted Humor, performed in top level on dirt throughout his racing career, but as a sire is better known as an off track specialist or grass sire. Broodmare sire, Royal Academy, won the mile BC Turf Mile in his last start and when on to be a leading sire in several countries for several years. He is a 1/2 brother to Terlingua, the dam of Storm Cat.
1)Clint Maroon(20-1) After three straight win on grass, his last two had good possibilities why he did not win. His first of those two was a little further than his bloodlines suggests would be his best distance and in his most recent start, he stumbled at the start and then had to circle 6 wide to get into contention, giving his opponents a decided edge. Since that start, he has switched barns and has turned in three good works. His sire, Oasis Dream, was a sprint champion in Europe while his broodmare sire, El Prado is sire of both Medaglia D'Oro and Kitten's Joy. Another that is in with a good shot at an upset.
6)Fog Of War(3-1) Has made 2 starts this year with the second a significant improvement over his first start. However, he will need to take his class up another level or two to compete against these. His sire, War Front, is leading miler grass sire since the death of Scat Daddy. His dam, Say, a royally bred daughter of Galileo out of G1 SW Riskaverse has yet produced anyone close to either parent. Therefore, I will bet the three I like better and make this one beat me.
Bets: $5 Ex Box 5-7($10), $2 Ex Box 1-5-7($12), $3 Tri Box 1-5-7($18), .50 Super Box 1-5-6-7($12), $1 Super Key 7 with 1-5-6 with 1-5-6 with 1-5-6($6). Total Risk $58.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
11th Race:
8)Captivating Moon(20-1) Made one start this year, finishing third in the prep for this race. Ran against good 3 YOs last year while never quite getting over type. New year and a freshening while giving him more time to mature could definitely be the answer. Two nice works since and he should be ready for the next step forward.
1)Robert Bruce(7-2) Made two starts this year, the first simply an out to get him fit. The second start saw him run 2nd to his stablemate, though he had the post position that tends to struggle compared to his stablemate who got another super trip from a post that tends to get good trips on Belmont inner turf course.
3)Bricks And Mortar(8-5) Is the favorite and deserving so. However, he is due for a not so good trip that will test his ability to overcome adversity that has taken many good runners down a notch or two. He is winding down his career as his breeding rights was sold to Japan and he departs after his last race this year, supposedly the BC Turf. Best U.S turf horse in training until someone knocks him down a notch.
4)Catcho En Die(30-1) Has made three starts this year and clearly been off form. However, he ran 4th in this race last year but was moved up to third via a dq of original third place finisher. Now on his fourth start since returning, including his first against the top two choices in here, I look for him to stick around because this field is similar to last year's field, with two horses dwarfing the others and he comes in not having a hard fought win he was coming off of, like last year.
Bets: $10 WP 8($20), $5 Ex Box 1-8($10), $1 Tri Box 1-3-8($6), .10 Super Box 1-3-4-8($2.40), $1 Super Key 8 with 1-3-4 with 1-3-4 with 1-3-4($6). Total Risk $44.40.
----------------------------------------------------------------
12th Race:
7)Comic Kitten(15-1) 4 starts this year with 2 seconds. But after a mini break of two months, she was entered in an allowance race that the winner slowed the pace down to a crawl and was able to hold her safe in a final time that was on the pedestrian side for grass especially. She needed two more efforts to recover, including drawing the rail on Saratoga turf course, where winners rarely make an impact from. Now she is working on her third try since that good first effort try and look for her to come alive. She has the same monstrous Sadler's Wells cross as Enable, though thru two different sons and grandsons.
2)Aunt Hattie(20-1) Has made 6 starts this year. Working on her fourth effort since her last winning effort with her last being her best effort, indicating she is regaining top form. One work since that effort should help her to retain her form. Her sire, Camelot, came the closest to sweeping the English TC since Nijinsky turned that hat trick in 1970. Her broodmare sire, Danehill, represent the same sire/dam family cross that has produced many top European G1 winners and champions.
10)Art Of Almost(5-1) 5 starts this year, breaking her maiden in her third start, then a conditioned allowance in her fourth start before finishing 3rd against a good G2 field of older mares, just missing second. 4 good works since that effort should have her in her best form.
3)Lightscameraaction(20-1) 3 starts this year, winning her most recent effort, but with some room for improvement. She showed some promise as a 2 YO and will most likely show more promise as she reaches peak conditioning. 2nd dam, Cross Traffic, was a multiple G1 SW and her best son, Cross Traffic, a son of Unbridled's Song, also won the G1 Whitney H and finished 2nd in the G1 Metropolitan Mile.
Bets: $10 WP 7($20), $5 Ex Box 2-7($10), $1 Tri Box 2-7-10($6), .10 Super Box 2-3-7-10($2.40), $1 Super Box 7 with 2-3-10 with 2-3-10 with 2-3-10($6). Total Risk $44.40.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
​
By my calculation, I have listed $483 worth of bets I will make at Arlington tomorrow. So my goal this week will be to cash tickets worth around $1500. Anything more will be like gravy on top, and anything less will make me try harder again next weekend.

**My Father does a write up about the derby horses every year. He has been to every Derby since Dust Commander won (1970) We had a great response last year so here is 2018! I will see if I can get him to answer any Derby related questions if anyone is interested.
Good luck everyone!
As I begin my 36th analysis of America’s greatest horse race, I need to talk about the way that trainers have approached this race over the last 20 years. Back in 1998, the Derby horses had an average of 8.4 career starts before the Derby. That number is now 5.9 career starts for this year’s expected 20 entrants, a decrease of nearly 30% over the last 20 years - so what is happening? There are many possible explanations for this downward trend. The most discussed reason is that trainers are placing more time between their charges’ races than ever before, the result is fewer starts overall for the Derby contenders. Is it possible that trainers are “babying” their horses a little too much? Back in the 70’s the Derby entrants had their last prep race within two weeks of the Derby, now it’s more like 4-6 weeks between a colt’s last race and the Derby. So as a handicapping factor, the number of career starts and the number of starts as a 3-yo seems to be “out the window”. However, I still believe that the colts with more racing experience have a slight edge in conditioning and therefore, a slightly better chance of winning the race. That being said, this year’s field has eight probable entrants who have fewer that 6 career starts, including the probable favorite and several other legitimate contenders. Let’s see how this turns out. So, without any further ado, here is my analysis of the colts (no fillies entered this year) in the 2018 Run for the Roses. Colts are listed in the order of the points they amassed in their prep races – not in the order that I think they will finish:
Magnum Moon: This lightly raced, undefeated colt (4 for 4 lifetime), is one of possibly 4 Todd Pletcher colts who will be in the starting gate and is one of two entrants who will be trying to overcome the “Curse of Apollo” (see footnotes for an explanation). He ran the fastest final 3/8 mile of this year’s colts with a time of 36:47 seconds in the Arkansas Derby, a race in which he controlled the pace through very reasonable fractions; running a fast final 3/8 mile is generally a good thing in the Derby. The Arkansas Derby has produced 6 Kentucky Derby winners. He has already beaten one other Derby entrant – Solomini – but the Derby will be his 5 th race in 112 days. He is a May foal and also must overcome the “Curse of Apollo “. If he finds himself up close early, in what is shaping up as a race with a lot of early speed, this will likely compromise his chances. I will have a hard time betting him to finish in the money in this race.
Good Magic: This lightly raced Chad Brown trainee (5 starts) actually broke his maiden in the GR1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in November and was last year’s 2-yo champion. He has wins over other entrants Flameaway, Bolt’d’Oro, Solomini and Enticed and loses to Firenze Fire and Promises Fulfilled. He had a nice freshening over the winter and came back with a slightly disappointing 3 rd place finish as the odds- on favorite in the Fountain of Youth stakes at Gulfstream in March. His next start was much better as he won the Blue Grass stakes at Keeneland (23 Blue Grass runners have won the Ky. Derby). He is a $1,000,000 Curlin colt, has a great trainer, and his running style will have him off the pace tracking the leaders in the early going. Also, he is considered a “dual-qualifier” (see footnotes for an explanation), an angle that historically has had success in identifying contenders in the Derby. I think he has a good chance of winning the race.
Audible: Another lightly raced, Pletcher trained entrant (5 starts) ran a great race to win the Florida Derby. His winning time of 1:49 2 in the race was the fastest 1-1/8 mile time for a 3-yo this year (reminds me of Always Dreaming last year) and the Florida Derby has produced 24 winners of the Kentucky derby. He will have a five-week layoff before the first Saturday in May but he has shown that he can run well off such a layoff. He has beaten other Derby entrants Free Drop Billy and Hofburg. He has several knocks against him however- 1) his breeding suggests that 1-1/4 miles might not be his best distance and he is a great, great grandson of Storm Cat through Harlan’s Holiday– Storm Cat offspring are 0-51 in the Derby – make of that what you will. As good as he has looked this year, I am hesitant to bet him to win, but he might fill out some of the exotics. For those who don’t know, exotic bets are exactas (first two finishers coming in), trifectas (first three finishers coming in) and the superfectas (first four finishers coming in).
Noble Indy: Yet another Pletcher trained entrant, this lightly raced colt (4 starts) won the Louisiana Derby in his last effort and has beaten other Derby entrants Lone Sailor, My Boy Jack, but was beaten by Bravazo. He began racing in December 2017 so he is just a little shy of qualifying for the “Curse of Apollo”, nevertheless, the Derby will be his 5 th race in as many months. The Derby will also be his first start in 6 weeks. He seems to have issues breaking cleanly from the gate, which could be a factor in the Derby. He likes to be up close to the pace so that could also be a problem in this race. I am leaning against betting on him.
Vino Rosso: Pletcher’s 4 th possible entrant. His last race, the Wood Memorial, was by far his best race of the year as he came from 9 lengths back to win going away over Derby entrant Enticed. However, he was beaten by Flameaway in two stakes races at Tampa earlier in the year. He only has 5 career starts but posted a fast last 3/8 mile in the Wood. Eleven winners of the Wood have gone on to win the Derby, but no colt has done that since 2000. John Velazquez rode him in the Wood and will ride him in the is Derby - which kind of surprises me as I think the other Pletcher colts are better than Vino Rosso and it seems that Johnny V had his choice of which Pletcher colt to ride. He has a closing running style but has never been in a race with more than 8 competitors, so he may encounter traffic with a 20-horse field. I believe he peaked in the Wood but I might bet him in some of the exotics in the Derby. Bolt d’Oro: This colt has intrigued me for the past two years. He won two GR1 races as a 2-yo and has always been in the money in 5 graded stakes efforts (2 wins, 2- 2nds and a 3 rd ). He is a “dual qualifier” and ran very good races in both the San Felipe (great stretch battle with McKinzie) and the SA Derby (when 2 nd to Justify) in his 2 starts this year. He has beaten fellow entrant Solomini and has lost to that one as well as Good Magic and the aforementioned Justify. One knock on him is that he is not a good gate horse and tends to break slow. Another knock is his trainer Mick Ruis (who also owns him). Mick has a poor win record this year, does not do well with shippers and this will be his first Derby entrant. Either his two starts this year have set him up well for the first Saturday in May OR they may have taken something out of him. His last race was a career best speed figure for him and horses often “bounce” (run worse in their next race) off these types of efforts in their next race. Anyway, I think enough of his natural talent to consider him a potential winner of the race.
Enticed: His trainer, Kiaran McLaughlin, hopes that this colt finally gets him and his Owner, Godolphin, their first Derby win. He has been running against the best of his generation for the last two years but his record is spotty against them. He has beaten Free Drop Billy and Promises Fulfilled but he has also been beaten by Vino Rosso, Audible, Free Drop Billy, Firenze Fire and Good Magic. He was beaten in the last two races where he was favored- the Wood and the Holy Bull. He does own a win over the Churchill Downs surface, so he can handle that track. He didn’t come home all that well in the Wood; I can’t see him winning the Derby but, he may get a part of the superfecta. I believe he is a cut below the best of this year’s 3-yo’s.
Mendelssohn: Probably this year’s most interesting colt. On the positive side: 1) He is trained by Aidan O’Brien, one of the best trainers in the world, 2) Though he is a European based colt, he came to Del Mar in November and won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf – quite an accomplishment for a 2-yo, 3) He was a $3M purchase as a yearling (that price shows a lot of confidence in his potential), 4) He went to Dubai in March and won the UAE Derby, a 1-3/16 mile race, by 18 lengths (the 2 nd place horse was a filly who is running in the Oaks)! 5) He is a dual qualifier. Now for the negatives: 1) Prior to his win in Dubai, his first 5 of his 6 races were on turf tracks in Ireland and Great Britain and the other was a mile on the synthetic track at Dundalk, 2) He raced in Dubai, my experience is that the travel to and from the Middle East takes a lot out of a horse and now he must go to Kentucky! 3) He is descendent of Storm Cat through Scat Daddy and Storm Cat’s descendants are 0-51 in the Derby. As an aside, his sire Scat Daddy, could have four starters in the Derby and if the Storm Cat futility holds up there are four colts who will not win. 4) Like several other colts in the race he is a May foal and late foals have not had success in the Derby in the last 20 years. I suspect that he will be well hyped come Derby time and will take a lot of action at the windows. I will take a stand against him.
Justify: This colt is the talk of the racing world, the hype and respect he has garnered would make you think that he is the next Man O’WaSecretariat. Well I am not so sure that he will win the Derby, though many experts say that he will be the favorite in the race. I base my opinion on the following: 1) He must overcome the “Curse of Apollo” (this will be his 4 th race in 76 days), 2) He is a descendent of Storm Cat and like Mendelssohn is out of Scat Daddy and Storm Cat’s descendants are 0-51 in the Derby. 3) Though undefeated in 3 career starts, he has not had to overcome any adversity in any of those races (though some might say that he is so good that he naturally dominated his competition, kind of the way American Pharoah did in 2015), 4) He will face more colts in the Derby than he has faced in his three career races combined (read that again)- in other words he is not battle tested. 5) The amount of quality speed in the Derby may compromise his chances if Mike Smith decides to keep him close to the pace. 6) His race in the Santa Anita Derby was a career high speed figure for him and he may “bounce” off that effort. NOTE: the Santa Anita Derby winner has won 10 Kentucky Derbies and 7 other Derby winners have come out of the race. On the positive side: 1) He is trained by Bob Baffert who is arguably America’s best trainer with 4 Kentucky Derby wins already and a Triple Crown win – he obviously is a trainer to take seriously in the Derby, 2) In his last race, the Santa Anita Derby he defeated Bolt d’Oro a legitimate Derby contender, and, 3) He gets the services of Mike Smith. “Money Mike” is America’s best jockey but he only has 1 Kentucky Derby winner from 23 mounts. I really can’t play this colt to win, but I probably have to include him in my exotic bets – he might just be as good as some experts are saying and maybe Mike gets his 2 nd Derby win.
Flameaway: Trained by Mark Casse who will be looking for his first Kentucky Derby win, this colt is one of the more accomplished in the field this year with 9 career starts, including 4 this year. He was beaten Good Magic in his last race –the Blue Grass Stakes. His preferred running style is to be up close or on the lead so that will put him in the thick of a hot pace in the Derby. Probably not the place to be! He has one start over the CD track and that resulted in the worst defeat of his career in the Iroquois Stakes. He is also another colt who traces to Storm Cat through Scat Daddy so you all know by now what that might mean. His breeding indicates that he may have trouble with the 1-1/4 miles of the Derby. I don’t see him finishing in the money in the Derby.
Solomini: Baffert’s second possible entrant in the race has never been out of the money in 6 career starts, but he only has a maiden win to show for his efforts (he was disqualified from 1 st to 3 rd for interference in the Los Alamitos Futurity during a stirring stretch duel). He has been beaten by Magnum Moon, Good Magic and Bolt d’Oro – that’s some pretty good company right there! But alas, his dam is out of Storm Cat (here we go again). He is owned by Zayat Stables who brought us American Pharoah so they know their way around the track – so to speak - and Baffert’s record speaks for itself. Is there a Baffert exacta possible in the Derby? I kind of doubt it. Like Justify, I may have to use this guy in a tri or super.
Bravazo: This D. Wayne Lukas trainee was thoroughly beaten in his last Derby prep, the Louisiana Derby. He finished a distant 8 th , beaten by 21 lengths as the 2 nd choice in the betting. Those finishing ahead of him include Derby entrants Noble Indy, Lone Sailor, and My Boy Jack. He won the Risen Star over the same track in his previous start so how could he have such a reversal in form? He has competed against many of the best of his generation with varying degrees of success – beating both Noble Indy and Lone Sailor but losing to Enticed and Free Drop Billy. D.Wayne knows how to get a colt to run well in the Ky Derby (after all he has won the race four times), but Bravazo’s poor effort in Louisiana is hard to explain. It’s great to see D.Wayne with another Derby entrant, but I think I will pass on this one.
My Boy Jack: This colt has the most career starts of any of the Derby entrants with 10. He is very consistent, being in the money 8 times in his 10 starts. Early in his career he was considered a turf horse but has found dirt to be to his liking. Trained by Keith Desormeaux and ridden by his brother Kent – winner of three Derbies- this colt is one of the four confirmed closers in the field. If the pace is fast, as expected, he is the most likely closer to have a shot, provided he can avoid traffic problems (hard to do with a dozen or more colts in front of you) when he starts to make his move. He will likely have to be wide around the last turn but he is capable of running a fast final 3/8 mile. He is out of Creative Cause so he is another entrant who is a descendent of Storm Cat. If the Storm Cat descendants continue their futile runs in the Derby he may not win. All this being said, I think I have to include him in some exotics as the most likely closer to hit the board.
Promises Fulfilled: One of two Dale Romans’ entrants, seems like he has only one way of going – to the front! I don’t see him having an easy lead like he did when winning the Fountain of Youth Stakes beating Good Magic. He finished last, beaten by 35 lengths, in the Florida Derby after setting fast early fractions losing to Audible. The Derby will certainly not be a slow pace and this will compromise his chances. He has run well over the CD strip, being in the money in two starts. However, his breeding screams “sprinter” with a dosage index of 9.00; he is a descendent of Storm Cat through Forestry and he is a May foal. Given these negatives – running style, high dosage index, descendent of Storm Cat and late foaling date I will pass.
Free Drop Billy: Dale Romans’ second entrant, is also a May foal and a descendent of Storm Cat – two negatives to consider. On the other hand: 1) He won a GR1 stakes as a 2-yo beating Bravazo and Lone Sailor, 2) He has been in the money 7 out of 8 career starts, and, 3) He is a “dual qualifier”. He was beaten in the Blue Grass by Good Magic and Flameaway. He has also lost to Enticed, Audible, Solomini, Bolt d’Oro and Firenze Fire in other races. As you can see, he has been beaten by many of the same colts he should face on May 5 th , not exactly a vote of confidence for his win chances. He has one win over the CD strip when he broke his maiden. He has always been well supported at the windows but come May 5 th , I think he will be a longshot and I won’t play him.
Lone Sailor: This Thomas Amoss trainee ran well enough in the Louisiana Derby to place 2 nd in what was his best race, however, he only has a maiden win to his credit in 8 career starts going into the Derby. He was beaten by Noble Indy, Enticed, Promises Fulfilled, Free Drop Billy and Brazavo when he faced them. This colt is another who does his running from the back of the pack and may face traffic issues turning for home. However, he had a tremendous 5f work at CD on 4/20 that has the clockers talking. I can see him improving enough to be in the superfecta in the Derby.
Hofburg: Not really sure what Bill Mott and his connections (Juddmonte) are thinking entering him in this race - they should know better (perhaps he will scratch). His 2 nd place finish in the Florida Derby earned him enough points to get into the Derby but he only has 3 career starts and if your best effort in a stakes race is a 2 nd , why bother entering the Derby? There isn’t much to say about this colt other than I think he should stay in the barn come the Derby.
Firenze Fire: Trained by Jason Servis, the trainer of 2004 Derby winner Smarty Jones, this colt has not lived up to the 2-yo potential he showed when he won both the GR1 Champaign and the GR3 Sanford Stakes. He comes into his 3-yo campaign with a mile win in the Jerome over a muddy track, while being beaten in his last 3 starts – the Wood, the Gotham and the Withers stakes. He has been beaten by fellow entrants Vino Rosso, Enticed, Free Drop Billy, Good Magic, Solomini, and Bolt d’Oro, and in turn he has beaten Good Magic, Enticed and Free Drop Billy so you could say that he fits right up there with the best of his generation. I don’t think that his 2-yo form has transferred to his 3-yo campaign, so I will have a hard time backing him come Derby day.
Combatant: One of Steve Asmussen’s four possible entrants. This colt has only one win in 7 career starts but he has run 2 nd or 3 rd enough times to get the points (32) needed to get into the race. It is hard for me to back him in any kind of wager except maybe a superfecta. He has been beaten by Magnum Moon, Solomini and My Boy Jack, when he faced them. He is a descendent of Storm Cat so beware of that and he is a May foal, another negative. If I play him at all it may be in the superfecta – he could run 4 th I guess.
Instilled Regard: This Jerry Hollendorfer trainee won the LeComte at the Fairgrounds in his 3-yo debut, but then ran 4 th in the Risen Star at the Fairgrounds after flying back and forth to California – guess he didn’t like the travel. In his next start he again finished 4 th this time to Justify in the Santa Anita Derby - never really getting into the race. He has 2 wins from 7 career starts and he has been in training since his career debut in September 2017. In the Derby, it will be hard for me to bet him. The negatives against him are: 1) In the Lecomte, he really didn’t beat anyone of note, 2) His speed figures haven’t improved since he ran in the Los Alamitos Futurity in December, and, 3) He really hasn’t shown any improvement in his races this year.
So there are the top 20 horses, but I need to look at 1 more in the event that there are scratches or other defections.
Blended Citizen: The Doug O’Neil trainee has earned only $31,890 of his total earnings of $196,854 on dirt, he has earned most of his money racing on synthetic surfaces at Golden Gate and Turfway. His most recent start was in the Blue Grass Stakes where he finished 5 th to the likes of Good Magic, Flameaway , Sporting Chance and Free Drop Billy. He has never won a race on a dirt surface in four tries, the last time I looked, CD was a dirt track. I really don’t think he will have an impact in the Derby. So, there you have it, my analysis of the top possible entrants for the Derby. The big question is how will I bet this race? Well there are two colts in here who “checked” all the right boxes - the boxes that point to a Derby winner – Good Magic and Bolt d’Oro. It is hard to separate these two, but something tells me that Chad Brown will win his first Derby with Good Magic (even though he only has 5 career starts), although I could also be talked into betting on Bolt d’Oro to win. I may place a few hundred dollars to win on Good Magic - I will just have to see come Derby day if I place the win bet on Bolt d’Oro instead. I will have a $10 four-horse exacta box with these two and Justify and My Boy Jack. I will make a $1 five- horse trifecta box using Good Magic, Bolt d’Oro, Justify, My Boy Jack and Vino Rosso. I will then play a $1 six-horse superfecta with Good Magic, Bolt d’ Oro, Justify, My Boy Jack, Audible and Vino Rosso. You will notice that I do not plan on making a win bet on the two “curse” of Apollo colts, the seven Storm Cat descendants, the four colts with dosage numbers above 4.00 or the five colts who are May foals. I am following history and statistics in deciding to eliminate the colts that do not have “history” on their side. Hope they don’t let me down by winning!
Things can change between now and race time. As always, I reserve the right to change my mind on these bets depending on what happens between now and Derby day.
Footnotes: Dual Qualifier: Is a colt who was weighted within 10 pounds of the 2-yo high weight in The Jockey Club's Annual Top 2-Year- Old Rankings (this is a weight-based assessment of the previous year's leading 2-year- olds for a hypothetical race at 1 1/16 mile with the top colt assigned a theoretical 126 pounds to carry in the race) and has a dosage index of less than 4.00. The Dosage Index: Is a mathematical figure used by breeders of race horses, and sometimes by bettors handicapping horse races, to quantify a horse's ability, or inability, to negotiate the various distances at which horse races are run. It is calculated based on an analysis of the horse's pedigree. A dosage index of less than 4.00 indicates the ability to get a route of ground (1-1/4 mile or farther). Curse of Apollo: Since 1882, no colt has won the Kentucky Derby who did not race as a 2-yo. Since 1937 61 colts raced in the Derby but did not have a race as a 2-yo – none of them won. Storm Cat futility: Descendants of Storm Cat are 0-51 in their Derby attempts. I know this is a lot to digest, especially for those of you who are not that knowledgeable about thoroughbred racing. Anyway, I hope you enjoyed reading it and I wish you all the best if you decide to bet the 2018 Kentucky Derby.
May the horse be with you.

Hello,
I am looking for someone with a great MATH IQ that is interested in creating a financial model/calculator.
THE PLAN: 1. Creating an algorithm where I rank the horses in order of odds (Greatest chance of winning, to the least likely based on the odds provided) 2. Hedging a wager, where I place money on every horse to win in varying amounts and wager combinations (Exacta, Trifecta & Superfecta) in hopes of generating a minimum of 10% or more in profits and at the worst, breaking even. 3. The combined wagers, should not exceed $150 for the one race. 4. I think, this can be accomplished on races with 5 horses. 5. This is a plan for passive income that can hopefully snowball(quickly) into a retirement plan.
TRACK - Delaware YEAR - 2015

1 Ranked HORSE RANK, 1st Place: 25, 2nd Place: 23, 3rd Place: 10

2 Ranked HORSE RANK, 1st Place: 18, 2nd Place: 18, 3rd Place: 18

3 Ranked HORSE RANK, 1st Place: 13, 2nd Place: 13, 3rd Place: 10

4 Ranked HORSE RANK, 1st Place: 8, 2nd Place: 9, 3rd Place: 10

5 Ranked HORSE RANK, 1st Place: 3, 2nd Place: 4, 3rd Place: 10

Please let me know your thoughts.
If you cannot, I understand and respect your honesty and time.
Best, -sp

I understand betting on a horse at 6:1 or 20:1.
I also understand the parimutuel betting where the house takes a 15% cut of the total wagered and takes the total to determine what the odds were after (like a $2 bet having a $97 return).
What I don't understand is how the odds are calculated for trifecta, exactas, superfectas and the such. When I see on the tv that a $1 superfect had a return of over $7,000 dollars, how does track calculate those odds?