Here is the much awaited 3.0 Mock! Though some QB movement is inevitable, I didn't mock and player trades, just draft capital trades. My analysis for each team is at the bottom.
Round 1
1.01) Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
1.02) Jets - Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
1.03) Dolphins - Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU
1.04) Falcons - Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
1.05) Bengals - Penei Sewell, OL, Oregon
1.06) Eagles - Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
1.07) 49ers (Trade with Lions)- Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
Lions trade 1.07 for to 49ers for 1.12, 2.43, 2022 Second
1.08) Panthers - Rashawn Slater, OL, Northwestern
1.09) Broncos - Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
1.10) Cowboys - Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan
1.11) Giants - Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
1.12) Lions (Trade with 49ers) - DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
Lions trade 1.07 for to 49ers for 1.12, 2.43, 2022 Second
1.13) Chargers - Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
1.14) Vikings - Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL, USC
1.15) Patriots - Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
1.16) Cardinals - Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
1.17) Raiders - Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami
1.18) Dolphins - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
1.19) Washington - Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
1.20) Bears - Christian Darrisaw, OL, Virginia Tech
1.21) Colts - Samuel Cosmi, OL, Texas
1.22) Titans - Jaelen Phillips, EDGE, Miami
1.23) Jets - Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Georgia
1.24) Steelers - Liam Eichenburg, OL, Notre Dame
1.25) Jaguars - Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
1.26) Browns - Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa
1.27) Ravens - Creed Humphrey, OL, Oklahoma
1.28) Chargers (Trade with Saints) - Wyatt Davis, OL, Ohio State
Chargers trade 2.47, 3.77, and 2022 fifth to Saints for 1.28
1.29) Packers - Eric Stokes, CB, Georgia
1.30) Bills - Jalen Mayfield, OL, Michigan
1.31) Chiefs - Teven Jenkins, OL, Oklahoma State
1.32) Buccaneers - Joesph Ossai, DE, Texas
Round 2
2.33) Jaguars - Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU
2.34) Jets - Alex Leatherwood, OL, Alabama
2.35) Falcons - Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
2.36) Dolphins - Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
2.37) Eagles - Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
2.38) Bengals - Carlos Basham Jr., DE, Wake Forest
2.39) Panthers - Nick Bolton, LB, Missouri
2.40) Broncos - Daviyon Nixon, DT, Iowa
2.41) Lions - Jay Tufele, DT, USC
2.42) Giants - Jayson Oweh, EDGE, Penn State
2.43) Lions (Trade with 49ers) - Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia
Lions trade 1.07 for to 49ers for 1.12, 2.43, 2022 Second
2.44) Cowboys - Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern
2.45) Jaguars - Pat Freiermuth, TE, Penn State
2.46) Patriots - Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue
2.47) Saints - Levi Onwuzurike, DT, Washington
Chargers trade 2.47, 3.77, and 2022 fifth to Saints for 1.28
2.48) Raiders - Jevon Holland, S, Oregon
2.49) Cardinals - Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida
2.50) Dolphins - Landon Dickerson, IOL, Alabama
2.51) Washington - Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU
2.52) Bears - Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, USC
2.53) Titans - Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss
2.54) Colts - Kyle Trask, QB, Florida
2.55) Steelers - Patrick Jones II, EDGE, Pitt
2.56) Seahawks - Trey Smith, OL, Tennessee
2.57) Rams - Chazz Surratt, LB, UNC
2.58) Ravens - Joe Tryon, EDGE, Washington
2.59) Browns - Asante Samuel Jr, CB, Florida State
2.60) Saints - Richie Grant, S, UCF
2.61) Packers - Alim Mcneill, DT, NC State
2.62) Bills - Shaun Wade, CB, Ohio State
2.63) Chiefs - Quincy Roche, EDGE, Miami
2.64) Buccaneers - Dillion Radunz, OL, NDSU
AFC
Baltimore Ravens
1.27) Ravens - Creed Humphrey, OL, Oklahoma
2.58) Ravens - Joe Tryon, EDGE, Washington
The Ravens have multiple needs this season, but none are as important as DE and Center. Center Matt Skura is still recovering from a significant knee injury where he tore his ACL, MCL and PCL in late November along with a disclosated kneecap and his future is unknown. While the franchise-tagged Matthew Judon registered 9.5 sacks and 33 quarterback hits — both team high, Jaylon Ferguson, a rookie, only finished with with 2.5 sacks and nine quarterback hits.
Cincinnati Bengals
1.05) Bengals - Penei Sewell, OL, Oregon
2.38) Bengals - Carlos Basham Jr., DE, Wake Forest
The most important thing in Cincinnati this season is one thing and one thing alone, collect as many assets to protect and assist Joe Burrow this offseason. To make matters worse, Carl Lawson, AJ Green, and John Ross are free agents and most likely to be somewhere else in 2021. Cincinnati posted the second least sacks in 2020 and desperately needs to add playmakers on the edge.
Cleveland Browns
1.26 CLE - Zaven Collins (LB) - Tulsa
2.59) Browns - Asante Samuel Jr, CB, Florida State
On defense, all three levels need to get better. But at the very least, Myles Garrett is locked in long-term as focal point of the defense and Denzel Ward seem likely to join him when he’s extended. I see the browns hammering the defensive side of the ball in the draft this year with a WR in the mix in the later rounds.
Pittsburgh Steelers
1.24) Steelers - Liam Eichenburg, OL, Notre Dame
2.55) Steelers - Patrick Jones II, EDGE, Pitt
With the retirement of Pouncey looming along with free agency of Villanueva, Steelers desperately need to find cheap options on the OL. Eichenburg provides and elite, cheap fill and can be a franchise player. The question mark for RB is also a big one. Do they resign Connor, find another option like Kenyan Drake, Jerrick Mckinnon, or Chris Carson or draft one.
Buffalo Bills
1.30) Bills - Jalen Mayfield, OL, Michigan
2.62) Bills - Shaun Wade, CB, Ohio State
The Bills are a complete team that doesn’t have many sports for an instant starter. However, they will need to get better in the trenches if they want to compete with the likes of Kansas City and Tampa Bay. Mayfield only played 1 season at Michigan, but the need on the right side of the line in evident. Look for the Bills to also look at DE, LB, CB, or even trade down to a team trying to grab a late first rounder.
Miami Dolphins
1.03) Dolphins - Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU
1.18) Dolphins - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
2.36) Dolphins - Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
2.50) Dolphins - Landon Dickerson, IOL, Alabama
In Tua year two, the Dolphins need to fill out their roster if they want to compete with the Bills. There are multiple needs Miami has, but filling out their OL and giving Tua elite options are the priority.
New England Patriots
1.15) Patriots - Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
2.46) Patriots - Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue
Offense, Offense, Offense. Patriots need to hammer a rebuild on the offensive side of the draft if they even want to dream about the playoffs again. The Bills and Dolphins are a major threat in the AFC and Newton at QB wasn’t a longterm fix. Moore provides Belichick with an elite pass catcher who can line up all over the field.
New York Jets
1.02) Jets - Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
1.23) Jets - Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Georgia
2.34) Jets - Alex Leatherwood, OL, Alabama
If the Jets want to compete next year, they need to address almost every position. Drafting basically BPA at every spot this year, they select a QB replacement, a long athletic edge, and some more depth in the OL.
Houston Texans
#fireeasterby
Indianapolis Colts
1.21) Colts - Samuel Cosmi, OL, Texas
2.54) Colts - Kyle Trask, QB, Florida
Indianapolis has an elite defense and if they can fix the holes on offense they will be a threat in the AFC for years to come. With the retirements of Phillip Rivers and Anthony Constanzo, LT and QB becoming immediate early draft picks or free agent acquisitions and I believe drafting Trask and Sam Cosmi will be good replacements.
Jacksonville Jaguars
1.01) Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
1.25) Jaguars - Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
2.33) Jaguars - Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU
2.45) Jaguars - Pat Freiermuth, TE, Penn State
The Jacksonville Jaguars are currently in the process of completing their regime change under new head coach Urban Meyer. Once that happens, it will be all about making improvements to the roster this offseason. With Lawrence as a lock, Urban Meyer has to surround his franchise QB with a roster that’ll be competitive.
Tennessee Titans
1.22) Titans - Jaelen Phillips, EDGE, Miami
2.53) Titans - Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss
By far, Tennessee’s biggest problem right now is a lack of consistent pass rush, which should have them targeting an edge defender early in this draft. Jaelen Philips fills the need and provides a high-upside EDGE to assist whatever they bring in in free agency.
Denver Broncos
1.09) Broncos - Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
2.40) Broncos - Daviyon Nixon, DT, Iowa
With the 9th pick, the Broncos should be targeting one of the several talented cornerbacks in this 2021 NFL Draft class. The Broncos brought in former Pro Bowler A.J. Bouye via trade with the Jaguars and he has been on and off the field due to injuries this season. I think Farley is incredibly talented and he fills a need for Vic Fangio's defense.
Defensive line can’t be ignored as a potential concern. They have five free agents-to-be up front, including Shelby Harris, Jurrell Casey and DeMarcus Walker. Not all of them will come back, we suspect. Even with Dre’Mont Jones, DeShawn Williams, McTelvin Agim and maybe Mike Purcell, some depth and insurance would be nice.
Kansas City Chiefs
1.31) Chiefs - Teven Jenkins, OL, Oklahoma State
2.63) Chiefs - Quincy Roche, EDGE, Miami
One thing the Chiefs will need in 2021 is help at the edge rusher position. Right now, Frank Clark and Mike Danna are the only two players currently under contract. They’ll need to find a few more in the draft and undrafted free agency if they don’t re-sign any of their pending free agents.
Las Vegas Raiders
1.17) Raiders - Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami
2.48) Raiders - Jevon Holland, S, Oregon
When it comes to the draft, the Raiders still have plenty of holes to fill, particularly when it comes to the team’s defensive side. Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock have spent plenty of picks on the defense but have yet to draft a player who looks like he can be All-Pro, or even pro bowl material on defense.
Los Angeles Chargers
1.13) Chargers - Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
1.28) Chargers (Trade with Saints) - Wyatt Davis, OL, Ohio State
Chargers trade 2.47, 3.77, and 2022 fifth to Saints for 1.28
Now, the Chargers going after Pitts is a decision that has to be made after they figure out what they’re going to do with Hunter Henry. Henry is currently playing on the franchise tag for an AAV of $10.6 million. Before both Travis Kelce and George Kittle signed their huge extensions, Henry was the highest paid tight end based on AAV. The Chargers are looking a having to chose between Henry and defensive end Melvin Ingram to bring back. A cheaper, possibly better option at tight end could be for the taking in the first round of the NFL Draft in Kyle Pitts.
NFC
Chicago Bears
1.20) Bears - Christian Darrisaw, OL, Virginia Tech
2.52) Bears - Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, USC
Matt Nagy desperately needs to overhaul their offense if they want to compete with the Packers in the upcoming years. To start, I believe the biggest needs the Bears must address this offseason is the offensive line and Receiver. If the Bears want to find an adequate replacement for the expected departure of Allen Robinson, they’ll have to strongly consider using their first pick, however in this mock draft I have them assessing OT first.
Detroit Lions
1.12) Lions (Trade with 49ers) - DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
Lions trade 1.07 for to 49ers for 1.12, 2.43, 2022 Second
2.41) Lions - Jay Tufele, DT, USC
2.43) Lions (Trade with 49ers) - Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia
With the departure of Stafford announced, Lions have a new QB coming to town. Over the next few weeks, the debate will be had regarding whether or not Detroit should trade down, especially since the team only possesses five total picks this year. Dan Campbell is in year 1, and as long as Rodgers is in GB, odds are they will not make the playoffs. Lions have many holes and the logical thing to do is to trade down and gather as much draft capital as possible. Look for WFT, NE, MIA, or IND as other potential trade partners.
The trade I mocked was the exact same as the Buf-Tampa trade that resulted in Josh Allen in Buffalo. Yes, you don’t need to trade 3 firsts to move up in the first round.
Green Bay Packers
1.29) Packers - Eric Stokes, CB, Georgia
2.61) Packers - Alim Mcneill, DT, NC State
Like the other 3 teams that made the Championship Weekend, the Packers have minimal needs. Kevin King was exposed versus the Bucs and I wouldn’t be surprised if they draft a CB with the first round pick. If the Packers can add another monster upfront, it would help them in so many areas. For starters, it would make life easier on their inside linebackers and open up more gaps for the backer to fill in the running game. A player who can get after the quarterback by pushing the pocket would also alleviate some stress on the secondary and free up blockers for the Packers’ edge rushers.
Minnesota Vikings
1.14) Vikings - Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL, USC
With the 14th pick, the Vikings can go many routes, address the OL, draft an edge rusher, or fix the back end of the defense. With Spielman as GM, it is very unlikely that the Vikings will never draft an EDGE rusher in the first round. At 6-4, 315 pounds, he could play either position at the next level. The Vikings must solidify their offensive line around Kirk Cousins, even after spending second-round picks on Ezra Cleveland (2020) and Brian O'Neill (2018) in recent years, and Vera-Tucker could be the long-term answer on the left side of the line. Cousins plays best when his running game is humming, and Vera-Tucker is a great run-blocker.
Dallas Cowboys
1.10) Cowboys - Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan
2.44) Cowboys - Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern
Going into the 2021 draft, the Cowboys have multiple holes they need to address. To start they desperately need to address their secondary. With Slater, Sewell, Surtain, and Farley all gone, this is the worst possible scenario for the boys.
Aldon Smith has played well for the Cowboys this season and may have set himself up for a nice payday over the offseason. With Dallas in a less than ideal cap situation, they may choose to let Smith walk and try to replace him in the draft. In this scenario, Paye would make a ton of sense for the team if they end up picking towards the end of the top 10.
New York Giants
1.11) Giants - Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
2.42) Giants - Jayson Oweh, EDGE, Penn State
I think that the Giants are an ascending football team, but they need to be more explosive offensively. Waddle e might be the number one WR in the Class and has the size and speed to be the main target for Daniel Jones. One of the more bizarre stats to come out of the 2020 regular season was that the Giants’ top four pressure marks all came from interior defensive linemen. Leonard Williams (62 pressures), Dexter Lawrence (29), Dalvin Tomlinson (28) and B.J. Hill (22) all produced more quarterback pressures than New York’s top mark from an edge defender — Kyler Fackrell with just 19. By drafting an EDGE in the second round, they bring in a dire need.
Philadelphia Eagles
1.06) Eagles - Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
2.37) Eagles - Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
The Eagles have massive holes to fill and might have multiple key players from their SB team leaving this offseason. There’s no question that the Eagles need help at cornerback. They came into this season with Darius Slay as their top corner and even though he hasn’t been elite, he’s been the best CB1 they’ve had since Asante Samuel. The problem is that they lined up Avonte Maddox on the other side and Maddox just simply isn’t a good enough starting outside corner. The Eagles have struggled to draft cornerbacks — think back to Sidney Jones and Rasul Douglas in 2017 — so it’s scary to think about them getting this wrong. But Surtain has an NFL pedigree and at 6-1, isn’t the type of undersized corner we’ve seen the Eagles trot out there during the Jim Schwartz era. Surtain is a true first-round pick and one of the best corners in this draft.
Washington Football Team
1.19) Washington - Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
2.51) Washington - Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU
It's no surprise that the Football Team needs a QB, but they most likely need to give up an unbelievable amount of draft capitol if they want a taste at the top 4 QBs in the draft. With the abundance of QB’s in the market this offseason, it won’t be a surprise if they make a run at Matt Stafford, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jimmy G, or Matt Ryan if they become available. Washington could bring in one of the elite Receivers in Free Agency, but Marshall at 51 is hard to pass up.
Atlanta Falcons
1.04) Falcons - Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
2.35) Falcons - Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
Atlanta comes into the 2021 Draft in a unique position. They have plenty of talent, but a team full of aging superstars and an abysmal defense brought them to the number 4 pick. Most likely the top 6 will be Lawrence, Sewell and a run on QBs and WRs bringing the Falcons in a unique position. If they decide to draft a QB, they are in perfect position to pick one but I believe they can do many things. With Matt Ryan on the backend of his career and Julio Jones turning 33, ATL will need to do turn the page soon to be relevant again.
Carolina Panthers
1.08) Panthers - Rashawn Slater, OL, Northwestern
2.39) Panthers - Nick Bolton, LB, Missouri
If Trey Lance falls to 8, Carolina would be happy to pick Lance with the eighth pick. Drafting a quarterback is almost a certainty at this point but if the Panthers take the "aggressive" approach that new general manager Scott Fitterer has talked about, they will likely trade up for either BYU's Zach Wilson or Ohio State's Justin Fields. Instead of a QB, they take Slater. Tackle in particular is a priority with the Panthers likely to move on from left tackle Russell Okung 32, and right tackle Taylor Moton likely to draw interest in free agency that could make him too costly.
The Carolina Panthers are going to need a long-term solution to their middle linebacker spot sooner rather than later and Nick Bolton fills the void left by Luke Kuechly. Nick Bolton is a physical hitter who has the right sort of speed to become a sideline-to-sideline force at the next level.
New Orleans Saints
2.47) Saints - Levi Onwuzurike, DT, Washington
*Chargers trade 2.47, 3.77, and 2022 fifth to Saints for 1.28*
2.60) Saints - Richie Grant, S, UCF
The Saints have many decisions this offseason regarding their elite defensive that puts them in a tough spot. It’s currently uncertain what the New Orleans secondary will look like next season as Janoris Jenkins, PJ Williams, Justin Hardee, and Ken Crawley are all set to be free agents, and adding a top tier talent like Onwuzurike and Grant could help the team for years.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1.32) Buccaneers - Joesph Ossai, DE, Texas
2.64) Buccaneers - Dillion Radunz, OL, NDSU
With it a possibility that Shaq Barrett opts to leave in free agency, the Buccaneers could find themselves looking for a quarterback hunter. Ossai could fit right in with what they like to do on defense and create havoc for that defense. Should he slide to No. 25, Ossai should be ripe for the picking by the Tampa Bay front office.
LT Donovan Smith has been reliable in terms of his durability and availability, but his performance over the last five years has been inconsistent at best. He’s also scheduled to make more than $14 million next season, though none of that money is guaranteed. That means the Bucs could move on from him without any dead money, and considering how tight the team in terms of salary cap space, they could save a ton of money with a younger, cheaper option like Radunz.
Arizona Cardinals
1.16) Cardinals - Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
2.49) Cardinals - Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida
With the gaping void left in the Arizona Cardinals secondary following the inevitable loss of franchise-cornerback Patrick Peterson, the 2021 NFL Draft offers an opportunity for Arizona to directly replace their isolation-corner with a prospect built in a similar mold. All-Pro safety Budda Baker looks to be one of the few returning members of the Arizona secondary and is in need of a complimenting talent on the opposite side of the hashes.
Los Angeles Rams
2.57) Rams - Chazz Surratt, LB, UNC
Going into the 2021 offseason, the Rams have quite a few question marks among the OL. Whitworth is old and the rest of the OL might be gone this offseason. They violently need to address the OL in the draft and this offseason. The Rams may have their most questions right now at the linebacker position and several key names could be gone by next year. Cory Littleton and Dante Fowler were lost this offseason, Samsom Ebukam will be a free agent next year, and Leonard Floyd was only signed to a one-year contract. Chazz Surratt is a must for the elite Rams D and provides Sean Mcvay with an athletic playmaker.
San Francisco 49ers
1.07) 49ers (Trade with Lions)- Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
*Lions trade 1.07 for to 49ers for 1.12, 2.43, 2022 Second*
San Francisco has an important offseason in front of them if they want to continue being atop the NFC West. Injuries battered the 49ers this year and it was a disappointing season all around. The 49ers are in salary cap hell next season and needs to do something if they want to resign Trent Williams, Richard Sherman, Soloman Thomas, and Jason Verrett among others.
Seattle Seahawks
2.56) Seahawks - Trey Smith, OL, Tennessee
Russell Wilson did not look comfortable at quarterback as his ecosystem became increasingly fragile this season. The success of the #LetRussCook movement, more or less, died as protection slowly got worse and worse. In the Wild Card game, Seattle's offensive line struggled mightily, allowing its worst pressure rate of the year - a 67 percent clip on all dropbacks, per Pro Football Focus.

Welcome to the Official NFL Power Rankings! From initial odds stacked against a full season to a successfully completed week 17, please take a second to reflect on these great months of football. We'd like to thank everyone involved with making the unlikely a reality, and also all who read and contribute to these ever improving rankings. 18th try is the charm, right? Discuss! 30/32 reporting

#		Team	Δ	Record	Comment
1.		Chiefs	--	14-2	Somehow, the Chiefs found a way to meaningfully lose in a game the outcome didn't matter in. Willie Gay Jr, Rashod Fenton, and DeAndre Baker all got injured with the first two players having significant roles on the offense when the starters are playing. Baker, who was a major part of the Chiefs' plans in the secondary in 2021, also broke his leg. On the positive sign Chad Henne got his first TD in 6 years and Darwin Thompson had a nice day for himself. The Chiefs now will wait and see who they play from wildcard weekend and will need to bring their A-game in a tough AFC to repeat as champions.
2.		Bills	--	13-3	The Bills starters played the first half of this game, with backups getting the second. They each put up 28 points. Miami put up 26 in the whole game. Talk about an extra shot of confidence heading into the playoffs. A 56 point outing is huge against any team, but Miami came in with the number one scoring defense in football (although it didn’t help that the Dolphins offense couldn’t stay on the field). This is a team that isn’t just winning games, they’re blowing people out. If you’re any other team in the AFC, the Buffalo Bills are just about the last team you wanna see right now. There could be a deep playoff run in store, and for the first time in 30 years, Marv Levy’s words are again relevant: where else would you rather be than right here, right now?
3.		Packers	--	13-3	We may have lost Bakh, but didn't seem to hinder the Packers too much in Chicago. 1 seed is clinched, Davante Adams clinched a share of the franchise receiving TD record, and Rodgers all but clinched his 3rd MVP. The NFC runs through the Frozen Tundra this year.
4.		Saints	--	12-4	The Saints head to the playoffs for another year, with efficiency being the key measure of success for this team. A top 5 defense in every yardage and scoring metric has done its job while the offense has used the ball well to keep the scoreboard ticking over. Season 2020 has so far been a success for the team, but as every Saints fan knows, the bounce of the ball is what matters in seeking the Philosopher's Stone of the Lombardi Trophy.
5.		Seahawks	--	12-4	Might be sounding like a broken record at this point, but maaaaaan this team needs to improve on offense. It's the playoffs, and this team is certainly capable of getting hot and going on an epic postseason run, but it's gotta see improvement on offense. Russ hasn't been the same, throwing 28 touchdowns in the first 8 weeks of the season, opposed to 12 in the final 8. The defense has seen major improvement, able to generate pressure and get to opposing quarterbacks as of late. With weapons on offense that include the duo of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, a sputtering offense is simply inexcusable. Hopefully the Seahawks can put things together and end the Rams season tis weekend.
6.		Ravens	+1	11-5	404 yards is the fourth most for a single-game, team-wide. Lamar Jackson is also the first QB with two 1000 yard rushing seasons. The team is rolling over bad teams and can run against bad defenses. Defense better get healthy in time for the playoffs, because there's 3 offenses in the playoffs that have already hung 34+ on this team, and another one will definitely be able to cross that threshold. Can Lamar finally win a playoff game? Harbaugh's Ravens are always good on the road...
7.		Buccaneers	+1	11-5	Any talk of a close game was thrown out the window when Atlanta gave up a healthy 21 points in the fourth quarter. Concerns of Tom Brady's arm staying effective late into the season are louder than ever, as he failed to throw for 400 yards for the 17th time this season.
8.		Steelers	-2	12-4	Unfortunately for the valiant, upstart Dolphins, the Steelers decided to send Mason Rudolph out there to the Dawgs. Somehow, in classic 2020 fashion, the Steelers had a chance to send the game into overtime, but fell short. It was a familiar sight for Steelers fans to see that the team can fall way behind and come back regardless of who is at QB. And lose. Or not. Who the hell knows? Playing Cleveland in back to back weeks looks like exactly what the team wanted. But be careful what you wish for...you just might get it.
9.		Titans	--	11-5	On Sunday, the Titans became the first NFL franchise to have two 2,000 rushers (and only franchise with 3 over 1,900) with Derrick Henry's 250 yard performance in the franchise's original city. Every game moving forward will be a question of the offense outscoring a turnstile defense.
10.		Colts	--	11-5	The Colts are in the playoffs, and though a tough trip to Buffalo awaits it's hard not to feel optimistic as a fan. The coupe de grace of this crazy season was the redemption of Jonathan Taylor, a player prematurely written off as a bust after a few weeks. Even Derrick Henry gave props to the player who put the team on his back and carried the Colts to victory on Sunday. After everything this year and amidst the ongoing pandemic, one is reminded is that sports boil down the big challenges in life into discrete, relatively meaningless objectives. We all have points in our lives where people doubt us. With fortune, we're given an opportunity to prove those people wrong. It's just in sports, sometimes you can do that by literally running the doubters into submission. The future is bright, one has to believe.
11.		Browns	--	11-5	After almost two decades, the Browns playoff drought is over. With the first 11 win record since 1994 the Browns will face the Steelers again in a Sunday night Wild Card match up. Playing Pittsburgh in back to back weeks looks like exactly what the team was going to have to do, and the are ready. Go Browns! COVID UPDATE: GODDAMN IT!
12.		Rams	+1	10-6	The Wolf of Ball Street, John Wolford, was a breath of fresh air with his mobility, but the result of any QB controversy might not be the cure to an anemic offense that has failed to score a TD since week 15. It’s the defense that got them to the playoffs, and it will have to be the defense again to win a playoff game. If the offense can get back to earlier season form, the Rams have a chance to make a run.
13.		Dolphins	-1	10-6	The Dolphins are a good, but flawed team, however with the third pick in the draft, they're in a prime situation to fix those flaws in 2021. The year ended poorly, but they finished better than anyone expected for the 2nd straight season, and going forward playoffs should be expected from this team for the next few years. The Dolphins have a lot to look forward to and a lot of reasons to believe that things will work out.
14.		Bears	--	8-8	The Bears' "resurgent, job-saving" offense scored an impressive 16 points. Trubisky went 2-7 with one INT on pass attempts of more than 6 yards; the offense scored one touchdown in five red zone trips; and an Amber Alert went out for Allen Robinson who went missing during the game.
15.		Cardinals	--	8-8	Sure the Cardinals improved in 2020, but the regression really showed in the second half of the season. There will be a lot of questions in the offseason regarding just how they missed the postseason and the blown opportunities. They wouldn't have done much in the postseason anyway and should be asking themselves how to position themselves to be ready next year.
16.		Raiders	--	8-8	In the only meaningless game of the year the Raiders beat the Broncos after going for and converting a 2-point conversion, the same way they lost to the Broncos at the end of last season. The Raiders finish 8-8 this season, bringing the Raiders non-losing season total up to 4 since the 2002-2003 season. As always, there's always next year.
17.		Washington FT	--	7-9	Well, The Washington Football Team is king of trash mountain and while they're NFC EAST champs at 7-9 they don't need to apologize to anybody. If they maintain the level of play they put on the field during their 4 win stretch and 5 out of their final 7 they can play with anybody. Their biggest issue however remains their offense and Alex Smith's lack of mobility. 17-20 points won't get it done against the offensive powerhouses of the league. Despite the still existent flaws, Ron Rivera in one year has done so much to change the culture and bring some respect back to this franchise and who knows what they could accomplish over the course of his tenure. And as a cherry on top, Chase Young came up big again in the most important game of the season cementing his Defensive Rookie of the Year status.
18.		Vikings	--	7-9	Justin Jefferson broke the NFL record for rookie receiving yards, with his final 133-yard game putting an exclamation mark on a year where he ranks first among all WRs in DVOA, second in PFF grade, second in yard per route run and first in yards over expected. A 7-9 finish for Minnesota is undoubtedly disappointing, but Jefferson and the rest of the Vikings' rookie class, together with hope for better injury luck, give Vikings fans plenty of reason to be more optimistic heading into next year.
19.		Chargers	+1	7-9	Facing KC's backups on the grounds of Arrowhead Stadium, the Chargers took their last game of the 2020 season and ran away with it, coming up with their 4th straight win and finishing the season at 7-9. Justin Herbert has now broken too many records to count, and came up just short of the rookie season passing yards record. Very safe to say he's going to win OROY and now has to focus on continuing to improve in the coming seasons. There were about an equal number of bright spots and big problems this season, but something that can be said for sure about this team is that it continues to be very close to dangerous but is still missing the right stuff. Potential moves in coaching, free agency and the draft will attempt to find the answers the Chargers need as they prepare for a playoff push in 2021.
20.		49ers	-1	6-10	Squandering a 10 point lead to lose to the Seahawks puts an end to this tumultuous season for the 49ers. Heading back to the Bay area after injuries and exile defined this season, more changes loom as their Defensive Coordinator takes head coaching interviews.
21.		Patriots	+2	7-9	The 2020 Patriots campaign ends on a hopeful, but uncertain note as we are reminded that sweeping the Jets remains one of life's great pleasures. For 2021, the Patriots are headed into offseason in rebuild mode once again, and seemingly with a new face at QB for the second year in a row. 7-9 is pretty disappointing after recent Patriots' success but with FA losses, opt-outs, Covid scratches and some close ass losses the 2020 Patriots fought hard, wringing every last bit out this roster. Watching the Playoffs without the Patriots is a bummer we pray will be rare.
22.		Giants	+3	6-10	In a season full of highs and lows, most Giants fans can walk away from 2020 feeling better about their HC than they have in a long, long time. That said, they have nobody to blame but themselves for missing out on the playoffs. Giants fans everywhere will take the feeling of beating the Cowboys over a higher draft pick 10 out of 10 times. Now we look forward as the team tries to build up this offense to once again become truly competitive.
23.		Panthers	-1	5-11	The Panthers finally did it: they pulled Teddy Bridgewater. Of course, Coach Rhule said that it was due to an "ankle injury" (though, according to the NFL, teams are required to send a medical update to the media if there is an injury to player, and the Panthers did not do so for Teddy), we finally got to see XFL legend PJ Walker play... And man, was he awful. He ended up throwing 3 INTs, and managed to look even worse than that stat-line. All of that is bundled up in the fact that we're now looking at teams interviewing Joe Brady, our OC, for their HC job and we dropped to #8 in the Draft because of a meaningless win against Washington. This was one of the most frustrating seasons as a Panthers fan, and I only hope that we can continue to #KeepPounding from here.
24.		Cowboys	-3	6-10	If you watch Sunday backwards, the day went good, but not great, for the Dallas Cowboys. After Washington locked up the division, losing the game against the Giants netted them 3 or 4 draft slots. All in all, though, this season is just like that horrible trainwreck of a on-man play that a friend from college put on: they invited you, and you agreed to participate but didn't know what you were getting in to, and then once you showed up you couldn't leave, because you were committed, and now its finally over, and you're just so relieved. Dallas got a good look at their roster, and their depth, and what they could scrounge up odd the street in October at a lot of positions, and hopefully can use that data to make smart decisions in the spring. Finally, and most importantly, why haven't they paid Dak yet? It's been allowed for like 18 hours at the time of writing this!
25.		Falcons	-1	4-12	Hopefully 2021 is the year Blank realizes announcing "Falcons for life" isn't effective in contract negotiations. There are major questions heading into the offseason, but any new coach might find more answers on this roster than realized. Fortunately, Raheem Morris doesn't count. With a top 5 pick for the first time since Matt Ryan was drafted in 2008, there will be room for difference makers on this team even with a subpar cap situation.
26.		Broncos	--	5-11	Time is a flat circle. Week 17, Broncos hosting the Raiders. All comes down to a two-point conversion. The Raiders choked it last year, the world went down a dark path. Perhaps things going opposite this year will lead to a brighter tomorrow? Stay tuned.
27.		Texans	+2	4-12	There's a solid chance this was the last time fans will see JJ Watt take the field for the Texans, and that's just depressing. This season has taken a lot of out everyone, and there doesn't seem to be a hell of a lot to look forward to this offseason as the folks off Kirby Drive will have to compete in a very active HC/GM market, with no guarantee of success. As with all Americans, Texans fans will look to the new year with a glint of hope, however misplaced that may end up being.
28.		Lions	+2	5-11	293 yards and 3 TD's from Stafford, 2 that went to Marvin Jones Jr (and a third that was called back thanks to a controversial call), and 3 sacks on Kirk Cousins. Although the Lions lost the game, the players were having fun. Rookies Quintez Cephus and D'andre Swift both are getting more comfortable in their roles; becoming more sure handed and running powerfully. Will Stafford resign a long term contract? Will Golladay? Will Marvin Jones Jr? Fuck. Whatever the future is for the Detroit Lions, most fans would agree that the franchise is slowly heading into the right direction.
29.		Eagles	-2	4-11-1	Someone once said, "You can't purposefully lose a football game on primetime television" to which Doug Pederson rolled up his Croft & Barrow sleeves and said, "Not with that attitude you can't."
30.		Bengals	-2	4-11-1	In two games against the Ravens the Bengals had a -59 point differential, in 14 games against everyone else they were -54. A humbling end of the season, but it looks like the Bengals will be bringing head coach Zac Taylor back for a third year. The Bengals hope that several assistant coaching changes, upgrades to the offensive line, and a healthy roster will be enough to make the Bengals more competitive in 2021.
31.		Jets	--	2-14	In what was news to coach Mr. Gase and literally nobody else, the season ended with making medicine ball heave Newton look like an MVP again.
32.		Jaguars	--	1-15	Disaster. There simply isn't a more apt word to describe this hellacious season. Occasionally the team would show a glimmer of being a professional sports team, but it'd quickly fade as mistakes and lack of talent piled up. Now the jobs are piled next to the draft picks. Hopefully whoever next is brought in to run the show can start to make things... well, less shit.

Trades:
Broncos trade 2021 RD1#12, 2021 RD4 #105 and 2022 RD1 for Cowboys 2021 RD1#4
Panthers trade 2021 RD1#7 and 2021 RD4 #102 and 2022 RD4 for Chargers 2021 RD1#5
Jaguars Trade 2021 Rd1#25 and 2021 RD3#66 for Raiders 2021 RD1#25
The 49ers trade 2021 RD2 #47, 2022 4th and Jimmy Garapolo for Patriots 2021 RD2 #46 and 2022 RD6
Steelers Trade 2021 RD2#64, 2021 RD4#128 and 2021 RD7#239 for Seahawks 2021 RD2#58
Football Team trades 2021 RD3 #75 and 2021 RD4 #106 for Seahawks 2021 RD2 #64
Seahawks Trade 2021 RD4 #122 and 2022 RD4 Via Jets for Packers 2021 RD3 #93
Steelers trade 2021 Rd3 #96 and Conditional 2022 Pick (2nd or 3rd) For Jets QB Sam Darnold
1. *Jets*- Trevor Lawrence-QB-Clemson
Sometimes you just don’t need to overthink it. Darnold’s failure in the Garden State wasn’t his own fault but you don’t pass on free, generational QBs like Lawrence. While you can try to get cute and make cases for Fields, Lance or Wilson, you really shouldn’t, especially with the 2021 scheme still TBD. Lawrence has the arm talent, IQ, athleticism, size and character to fit well in any scheme and any coaching staff. His only weakness I see is a reckless streak to force balls to his first option through tight windows. IMO this is simply a result of being more talented than the competition, throwing to receivers more talented than the opposition and having better scheming than the opposition. It should go away with NFL reps. Slam dunk pick. It’s time to bring sunshine to the garden state.
2. *Jaguars*- Justin Fields-QB-Ohio St
For as poor as their record is, the Jags actually have some pretty good pieces to build around. This has to be one of the youngest teams in football and with Coughlin gone, maybe they can actually start bringing in free agents and keeping stars in house. James Robinson, Laviska Shenualt, DJ Chark and a surprisingly good interior O-line lead by a potential all-pro in Brandon Linder give the offense a good baseline to build around. Give Justin Fields some good protection, an emerging young RB who can catch passes, an OC who can scheme first reads into space and a playmaking receiving group and we have a good chance to do something. For my money, Fields is the most accurate QB in the class and arguably the best at grasping route-tree concepts. Like Lawrence, he struggles to come off of his first read at times and for very similar reasons, though in his case it leads to less yolo balls and more tucking and running while second reads run free. He will need reps to come off of this, but in a quick-hitting system with playmakers, he could really hit the ground running.
3. *Bengals*- Penei Sewell-OT-Oregon
This pick is the easiest in the entire draft. Best LT I’ve personally scouted coming out to a team that needs it more than any other team, with an injured 1-1 QB who looked every bit the part in his rookie year. If it were any more obvious, Avril Lavigne would write a song about it.
4. *Broncos Via Cowboys*- Zach Wilson-QB-BYU
Either John Elway’s good will in Denver will be good enough to get him one last shot at drafting his QB, or a new regime will come in and want to draft their own QB. Either way, a new QB is coming, which is exciting given that they actually have some really good pieces on offense. Going with the idea that Elway remains, I can see Elway falling in love with either guy, likely seeing more of himself in Wilson, but Lance likely blowing him away in interviews and more importantly being slightly taller. In the end, while I have Lance rated higher, I think Elway will want to go the perceived safer route in Wilson, who is still a high ceiling player in his own right and has experience playing at high altitudes for BYU. Either way, I think Denver trading into the top 5 for a QB is one of the biggest locks of the draft. Dallas has a plethora of needs, but a healthy Dak Prescott has looked like a top 5 QB in recent years and is simply too good to walk away from. Since I have CB as their top need and Sewell off of the board, it makes sense for them to grab draft capital and still likely land a top 2-3 CB.
5. *Panthers Via Chargers*- Trey Lance-QB-NDSU
With Wilson off of the board, the Panthers pay a slight price to flip with the Chargers and ensure they get their QB. While I have Lance rated higher than Wilson for most teams, I actually slightly prefer Wilson in Carolina if they got their choice, but Lance is far too good to pass on. While Brady may not be able to run his full concept year one with Lance, Teddy’s still tentative nature has held back the offense at times and still lead to too many turnover worthy plays. They will need to slow down the game a bit for Lance if he starts from day one, but they have the pieces to do so. Lance will add a game-breaking dynamic to open up the entire field with his arm, while taking pressure off of CMC and demanding QB spies. This should really open things up for Brady to slowly unleash Lance. They have the pieces to have one of the best offenses in football (and the coaching) if this hits. With so many targets schemed into space and a heavy dose of CMC to make defenses respect the run, Lance’s potential accuracy issues will be muted and he has the ability to drive the ball in ways that help receivers functionally be more open than with a touch passer. They are also perfectly situated to start a cheap Teddy until Lance is ready with a long term minded coaching staff and ownership. Really like this fit and team.
6. *Eagles*- Caleb Farley-CB-Virginia Tech
I could see a case for the Eagles going after Chase here, but with how poor the Eagles secondary has been this year outside of an aging Darius Slay, I can’t see them passing on a talent like Farley. Jim Schwartz likes to put a ton of pressure on his secondary and Maddox/NRC simply don’t have the size or physicality to deal with what’s asked of them. IMO Farley has the highest ceiling of any CB i’ve scouted since Ramsey and similarly has the rare combo of size, speed and football IQ to match up with any receiver or QB in the game. The former QB still knows how to think like a CB and has the ball skills that made him highly recruited as a WR before he transitioned to CB. Farley checks every physical box, every mental box, every playmaking box and is said to have a home run character. If i’m searching for an issue, he can take an occasional miss-step in zone, but Schwartz is famously averse to soft zone. Farley has a bit of an injury history and is still fairly new to the position, but he has all-pro potential, a high floor and is a much needed good fit for this Eagles secondary. They can’t afford to pass on him.
7. *Chargers Via Panthers*- Samuel Cosmi-OT-Texas
The Chargers traded back, acquiring two fourths to make stomaching reaching for a tackle a bit easier. Still they have to do it. They look to have a franchise QB and play-action can only mask so much. The line is simply terrible. Per PFF, the Chargers line ranks as follows: tackles Sam Tevi and Brian Bulaga (71st and 56th out of 78 with Pipkins ranked 77th getting snaps), Trai Turner and Forrest Lamp (81st and 74th of 83) at guard and Dan Feeney (35th of 36) at center. Oof. The only borderline passable starter is a Bulaga at RT who will be 32 next year. With a QB who has wheels and big money tied to a fleet footed Ekeler, I think adding lateral mobility and athleticism to the line is a must. Cosmi isn’t a finished product technically or physically but he has the frame to add good weight while maintaining plus athleticism at the blind side and is used to playing with a mobile QB who will make life tougher on him. He rarely fully loses reps and should provide an immediate upgrade from Tevi, while having an extremely high ceiling. It’s time to change the identity of that line and lean into the play action game that is keeping the offense functional, even if I have Darrishaw rated slightly higher, I prefer this fit.
8. *Football Team*- Ja’Marr Chase-WR-LSU
People seem to be forgetting how good Ja’Marr Chase is after a year off. Justin Jefferson has been one of the best receivers in the entire NFL his rookie year, Terrace Marshall is a borderline round one guy, CEH was a first round pick and yet the most impressive skill player on that 2019 LSU team was Chase. While the Football Team clearly doesn’t have a long term solution at QB, the top 4 guys are gone and I’m not sure they have the skill players or line for a new QB to ever be successful anyways. When your receivers 2-5 are Steven Sims, Cam Sims, Dontrell Inman and Isaiah Wright, you don’t pass on a Ja’Marr Chase. Easily the worst 2-5 in the NFL. Logan Thomas isn’t a top 30 TE either. There are some pieces in DC. McLaurin is a stud and Gibson is everything I hoped he would be. The line has some good pieces, but have two weak links in Martin and Christian that need to be replaced before it can become functional. With a year left on Smith’s deal and 50 mil in cap space, the FT can afford to bring back Scherff, upgrade from Martin and take a swing on a mid round QB. Worst case scenario they go all in on a 2021 QB but actually have the pieces in place for him to hit the ground running.
9. *Lions*- DeVonta Smith-WR-Alabama
The Lions currently have Quintez Cephus and Geronimo Allison as receivers under contract in 2021...that’s it. They have approximately 1.23M in available cap space as it currently stands. I still expect them to figure out a way to bring back Kenny G, but even then, they are going to need a day one starter at WR. My mind is telling me Jaylen Waddle’s speed will get him to top 10, but I don’t love how his game meshes with Stafford nor am I fully confident he’s ready to go day one in 2021. Smith may be built like a teen who just hit a growth spurt but he’s a day one starter in the NFL and his game meshes really well with both Stafford and compliments Golladay’s. I’m really interested to see who takes in Detroit next year, but whoever it is, a potential unit of Kenny G, DeVonta Smith, an emergent TJ Hockenson and D’Andre Swift isn’t the worst place to start.
10. *Falcons*- Kwity Paye-Edge-Michigan
The Falcons need a pass rusher off of the edge, we all know that, it just comes down to which one; so having Rousseau, Paye and Parsons all still on the board is a dream scenario. While I personally have them rated Parsons, Rousseau and then Paye, it’s close enough between all three to go by fit. I honestly think the Falcons have a very strong linebacker corps and won’t get the greatest usage out of Parsons and while I love the idea of Rousseau sliding inside next to Grady Jarrett on 3rd and long, I think they need to go for day one impact and mainly the best all around true edge. For me, that makes Paye the best fit. Always a true freak athlete (which, check out Bruce Feldman’s freak list (https://theathletic.com/1938659/2020/07/21/bruce-feldmans-freaks-list-2019-college-football-top-athletic-performances-2/) but in 2020 he has made a herculean jump in production and polish. This a day one starter, with incredibly rare athletic traits, a feel good backstory and immediate impact at a gigantic need.
11. *Dolphins Via Texans*- Micah Parsons-LB-Penn St
I don’t need to go into too much detail here. The Dolphins have one of the NFL’s few good defenses thanks to a strong secondary and simply elite play calling and positioning from Flores/Boyer. That’s despite Elandon Roberts and Jerome Baker’s poor play and general talent. So what if we gave them a uniquely talented player who can play inside, outside and even play as a pure edge while fitting what the scheme wants to do perfectly? I can’t wait to find out. I think Parsons is still somewhat raw as a player and will have a few rough moments early on, simply because he’s been so so so much more naturally gifted than his competition for his entire life and hasn’t been punished for small mistakes. That said, I can’t think of a better landing spot at getting the most out of him early on and putting him in positions to succeed, nor can I think of a better player at mentoring him than Kyle Van Noy. Parsons will be an immediate upgrade and the potential for what he could grow into in Miami is tantalizing. Thanks Houston.
12. *Cowboys Via Broncos*- Patrick Surtain II-CB-Alabama
The Cowboy’s trade back pays off. I would have been between Surtain and Farley at 4th overall and while I would have leaned Farley, the gap certainly isn’t a 2022 (likely somewhat early) 1st rounder and a 4th. Pairing Surtain up with his college counterpart in Diggs should allow Diggs to go back to his natural 2 spot and provide an immediate upgrade from the triumvirate of Awuzie, Brown and Lewis. Surtain may not be the fastest straight line runner, but his hips are as smooth as they come and he makes up for any long speed deficiencies with elite mirroring and physicality. Surtain has improved as a tackler in 2020 and is probably the best day one starter at CB in this class. The Cowboys will need some safety help over the top against speed receivers, but this is an easy pick.
13. *Bears*- Christian Darrisaw-OT-Virginia Tech
The Bears would love a top 4 QB to fall into their laps at 13, but I just don’t know if they have the assets to afford a move into the top 5 right now. With Nick Foles more expensive to cut than to keep and only 2 mil in expected cap room in 2021, they will need to clear up some space. They happen to have two expensive tackles that are playing solidly but are the only non Akiem Hicks way to open up a big chunk of cap. With Ifedi a free agent expecting to see a bigger contract in 2021, the Bears have a day one need at tackle. Luckily for them, my #2 rated tackle is still on the board and is an absolute monster when he’s set and moves extremely well for his size. There are some issues getting set, but he has an extremely high ceiling and could help open up some much needed cap space for Chicago, while providing a long term solution to a two tackles who are due a lot of money, are cheap to cut and getting onto the wrong side of 30 (and coming off of a severe knee injury in Massie’s case). A receiver is an option here if they cant bring back A-Rob, as could be CB if they cut Fuller. Safety appears as a need as well, but nobody is close to a value this early. Darrishaw is the best value to need for me.
14. *Vikings*- Gregory Rousseau-Edge-Miami (FL)
I looooove this pick. A lot of people are low on Rousseau since he isn’t a finished product, but I think that’s pretty unfair. Rousseau, in his first year as a starter managed 15.5 sacks and 19.5 TFL. While his pressure rate made the sack total seem unsustainable, this is a player who will always have a high sack to pressure ratio due to his insane length, absurd speed to power and insane closing burst. Rousseau is unlikely to be a finished product in 2021, he needs to improve his move repertoire and would do well to use his length to shut down passing lanes. But he has a much higher floor than people give him credit for because he does such a good job of using his length to keep defenders outside of his body and can always detach from blocks. He physically resembles Jevon Kearse, which is something I’ve never said before and his athletic testing is going to be nutty. From a traits perspective this is a once every 5-10 years prospect. Minnesota has done a great job developing high ceiling players and have needs across the D-line. Rousseau setting an edge on run downs and sliding inside for passing downs (where he will be a nightmare from day one) will be a huge asset for the Viks. I can’t see them passing on Rousseau should he be on the board at 14 barring a sliding Trey Lance.
15. *Patriots*- Jaylen Waddle-WR-Alabama
It baffles me that a great defensive mind like BB has allowed himself to have such a slow receiver group, but I can’t imagine him just allowing it to remain as is. The Pats have holes along the D-line and would love a franchise QB, but have played themselves out of contention for the clear round one talents. While I have to imagine Kyle Pitts would be extremely enticing here, he doesn’t offer the ability to play in-line/move nor would he be functional slid in at FB. Without the ability to disguise playcalls, I see Waddle as the pick here to add some much needed electricity and field stretching ability despite having Pitts rated slightly higher. Jakobi Meyers has emerged as a solid receiver for the Pats and the ghost of Julian Edelman remains. With Waddle demanding defensive attention, perhaps he can open up some free space for N’Keal Harry to finally realize some of the yac ability that got him drafted so highly. Edge has to be tempting, but with Rousseau and Paye both off of the board the gap between what Waddle brings to the table vs a second round receiver and a Basham type vs who will be there at 46 leans heavily in Waddle’s favor. Assuming he’s fully healthy at the combine, I think this is Waddle’s floor.
16. *49ers*- Jaycee Horn-CB-South Carolina
The 49ers would love to see a top 4 QB fall to 16 and have to be somewhat interested in Trask and Jones as scheme fits, but they also currently have literally zero cornerbacks under contract for 2021, nor are they particularly flush with cap space nor do they have a third round pick. Jaycee Horn is not only my clear cut CB3 (maaaybe can see a case for Stokes) but he’s also a great fit for what Saleh wants to do should he remain in town. This is one of the easier picks in the first for me. Good fit, arguably best player available and absolutely massive,gaping, day one need. Wyatt Davis is a strong 1B for me though.
17. *Jaguars Via Raiders*- Kyle Pitts-TE-Florida
The Jags have a ton of picks early this year, a coordinator who excels at using athletic receiving TE, a rookie QB who they will be heavily invested in succeeding, a clear need at TE and a likely willing trade partner in Las Vegas. Trading up to grab Pitts is a no-brainer for me. He’s a top 10 talent in the class who could legitimately compete for WR1 in the class should he be listed that way. Is he a great blocker? No. But he’s literally breaking records at catching contested balls, runs the crispest routes i’ve ever seen from a TE and is going to be a prime Jimmy Graham level end-zone threat who can win at every point on the field. Who matches up with this guy? Not a CB, not an LB, maaaaaybe Isaiah Simmons on his best day or a Derwin James? Factor in Jay Gruden knowing exactly how to use this kind of talent and how ridiculously accurate Justin Fields is and you have to make this trade. A Justin Fields offense with this receiving group and Gruden calling plays gets me excited. Just need a tackle and a defense and we may just have something here. Jason Mendoza would be ecstatic.
18. *Ravens*-Wyatt Davis-IOL-Ohio St
The Ravens are reeeeally missing Marshall Yanda and Davis is easily the top IOL in this class for me. I think the Ravens are trying to move away from their 2019 offensive strategy since the don’t have the pieces, but the answer is actually to rebuild around what actually worked. That has to start in the trenches. Wyatt Davis embodies Ravens football. He is a genuine people mover, but he doesn’t sacrifice speed or mobility to achieve that power. He’s pure controlled aggression, and if that’s not a Harbaugh player, I don’t know Harbaugh. If Davis played any other position, he wouldn’t be on the board at 18. Plug and play week one starter who can help get the Ravens back to the 2019 glory. If Pitts is off of the board, this has to be the pick.
19. *Giants*- Joseph Ossai-Edge-Texas
The Giants situation isn’t as bad as I thought at first glance. They haven’t had the best offensive line pay, but with Nate Solder set to return in ‘21, Andrew Thomas starting to look closer to a top 10 pick and Matt Peart as an interesting developmental piece, it felt early to reach on a tackle and I don’t love any interior lineman enough to pull the trigger here. Receiver is a glaring need, but I think there will still be impact starters to get in round two and money to spend in FA as needed. I don’t hate Daniel Jones from my looks and think if the line and skill positions improve around him, he still has a chance to develop into a second contract sort of guy. He deserves his 40 start sample size. With Saquon set to return, that leaves edge as the most glaring need. Leonard Williams and Dalvin Tomlinson are both free agents (though should imo be brought back) and Kyle Fackrell doesn’t deserve another season as a starter. In Patrick Graham’s multiple 3-4 front, there happen to be two exciting players who fit the rush LB mold extremely well and fit value wise. Azeez Ojulari and Jospeh Ossai. I have Ossai rated slightly higher on my board and love his fit in this defense as a better early down linebacker with a higher athletic ceiling in coverage and better length to entice Gettleman while avoiding combo blocks. The dude is no slouch as a pass rusher either. I love the player and love the fit in a defense that might just emerge in ‘21 if things go right.
20. *Cardinals*- Eric Stokes-CB-Georgia
The Cardinals 2021 will have Patrick Peterson, Johnathan Joseph and Dre Kirkpatrick all hitting free agency next year, leaving just slot corner Byron Murphy and a soon to be 33 year old Robert Alford coming off a broken leg to end 2019, torn pec that cost him all of 2020 who can be cut to clear 7.5M of cap space. Corner jumps out as a need both long term and potentially from day one. Few players in this class have impressed me as much as Stokes has. Stokes has always been a technically sound player who shines bright outside in press, with loose hips and long arms to obscure passing lanes. But in 2020, he’s taken that next step into a playmaker. Despite teams tending to avoid throwing at him, he’s flashed greatly improved ball skills and even housed two of the picks he has. I think this is a true all around outside corner who can fit in any scheme and do whatever is asked of him. I don’t exactly see a pro bowl ceiling here, but I think Stokes might be the safest CB in this entire class and it wouldn’t shock me if he had the best rookie year of this solid corner class. People tend to underrate a good, polished CB2 chasing upside that doesn’t always fully develop. Draft good football players.
21. *Buccaneers*- Azeez Ojulari-Edge-Georgia
In a down IDL class, I’m tempted to reach for Barmore here and with Donovan Smith able to be cut to clear 14.25M in 2021, a polished tackle like Eichenberg is somewhat enticing. But with both Lavonte David and Shaq Barrett set to be expensive free agents next year, I think a rush LB/edge hybrid is the biggest need and it just so happens Ojulari is still on the board. When I watch Ojulari I pretty much see Shaq Barrett. A smaller, still long bursty/bendy player who can rush the passer at an elite rate, but will struggle setting an edge. Barrett is a good player, but he’s going to demand a contract that will pay him more than he’s worth and take him into the wrong side of 30. Ojulari can replace something very close to Barrett on rushing downs while a cheap Anthony Nelson is already an elite edge setter on run downs. Lavonte David is a much harder player to replace IMO and they should give him the big contract. Between Nelson and Ojulari, I think they can replace Barrett for 20M less a year and honestly, the pairing has a higher ceiling if everything comes together. It will also help the Bucc’s line get younger, which is much needed for future outlook. I can’t think of a better coach than Todd Bowles to max out a guy like Ojulari. Love this fit.
22. *Dolphins*- Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah-LB-Notre Dame
After addressing linebacker with pick number 11, the Dolphins double down and draft another at pick 22. If you’re going to start two monster rush LB like Kyle Van Noy and Micah Parsons, it sure as hell won’t hurt to have an absolute speed freak to fly around and neutralize both TE and speed backs. The closest thing I’ve seen to Owusu-Koramoah is basically the 2020 Seahawks version of Jamal Adams (minus the injury) undersized for an LB but incredibly fast, incredibly good at deciphering plays and a surprisingly good blitzer. The dude finishes tackles against future sunday morning players too. As mentioned earlier, Elandon Roberts and Jerome Baker ain’t it, especially in a mainly odd front defense. JOK offers a truly unique skill set that not only compliments the pieces already there well, but will be maximized by a coach like Flores. The Dolphins have needs on the O-line, receiver and RB, but you won’t find another JOK in the second round, where they have two picks. Perhaps they can target Owusu-Koramaoh’s son, Travis Etienne with one of those picks.
23. *Colts*- Jaelan Phillips-Edge-Miami (FL)
The Colts have needs at WR,CB and will likely do their due diligence on the remaining QBs. However, the Colts top 3 snap getters on the edge (Houston, Muhammad and Autry) are all free agents, only Houston has been performing well and he’s already 32. Even if he returns, edge will be a need. While Phillips won’t be the top edge available on every team's board here due to a very small sample size and a long injury history, I have to imagine Ballard will be head over heals for this player. Ballard has shown in the past he wants to target athletes with length and Phillips has both in spades. The former #1 overall recruit has insane length, insane burst, elite bend,elite speed to power and knows how to use all four to be first to contact and shed tackles like snake skin. Phillips measurables and 2020 tape are clear cut first round grades and had he had three healthy years, he might be the top edge in the class. The dude even wins in coverage at 6’5 265. The question is, do you trust him to stay healthy. He’s the type of player that will be top 15 on 8 teams boards, mid day two on 10 teams boards and completely off of 14 teams boards. I think Ballard is going to fall in the first group of GMs and he will rush to the podium to get Phillips in the building.
24. *Browns*- Zaven Collins-LB-Tulsa
The Browns have clear needs at edge and linebacker. If Owusu-Koramoah were on the board, he’d be the pick and Dylan Moses has to make them think. But I think they instead get them somebody who can do both. Andrew Berry has shown a strong correlation of draft picks to PFF grades and guess who PFF’s top graded LB in all of college football is? Zaven Collins. More than just questionably important player grades at Tulsa, Zaven Collins has the unteachable traits you can’t coach and scouting teams will love. 6’4 260 pound men shouldn’t be able to move like this. Collins is nimble and agile and is going to blow up the combine. I’d bet money on that. He uses this blend of size and agility to simple avoid blocks at Tulsa but has the size and length to easily disengage at any level. He is borderline elite in coverage and has bullied American conference passers into 2 pass deflections and 4 picks (which he’s returned for 152 yards and 2 TDs) in just 6 2020 games. Collins can rush the passer as well and has legit edge size. Collins currently plays more fast (which he is) than powerful (which he also is). I’d like to see him learn to use his size to initiate contact and bully people at the point of contact because he absolutely can, but I guess why do it when you can just avoid them completely. The game speeds up from the American conference to the AFC North, but I think Collins is a day one LB, special teams force and has potential to develop into a very special player. Watching him play, he reminds me of a cross between KJ Wright and Jamie Collins, but bigger. Fun Player and easy fit.
25. *Raiders Via Jaguars*- Christian Barmore-IDL-Alabama
After trading back and acquiring an extra top 70 pick, the Raiders select the player they wanted all along. The Raiders need a more consistent pass rush. Clelin Ferell has taken a huge step forward in 2020, but he will always be a stop the run player more than a sack artist (as is Nassib), while I’m not ready to give up on Maxx Crosby, he hasn’t been the same player he was in 2019 (or close to it). Maurice Hurst has been their only good pass rusher for my money, but he will need help inside. Johnathan Hankins is a free agent, soon to be on the wrong side of 30. Vickers and Collins certainly aren’t the answer. In a down IDL class, Barmore is the only player I can see ging round one and is easily my top IDL in the class. Is he a polished player and tactician? Nope. NFL double teams will likely eat him if he can’t add more moves or play with better leverage. That said, if you try to double him, Hurst is gonna murder your quarterback. Barmore has rare length, bend and power for an interior player. He already wins against SEC lineman and can play all across the line despite being 310 pounds. When he wins, he wins quickly and is an immediate disruptive force up the middle. Put him outside in short yardage situations and back inside on clear passing downs and he will immediately be an upgrade for the black and silver. He won’t be a 3-down guy year one, but that doesn’t mean he won’t make an impact. Long term, the sky is the limit. This is the only IDL in this class I can envision making a pro bowl. He also just so happens to come from the winning culture that Gruden?Mayock love. It just makes too much sense not to happen.
26. *Jets Via Seattle*- Carlos Basham-Edge-Wake Forest
It’s still TBD who will be the Jets DC in 2021, but I think they have personnel best suited for a true multiple front but could certainly use a genuinely polished power edge suited to play both 3-4 and 4-3 edge. Basham is that guy and while Joe Douglas has a love for quick twitch athletes off of the edge, I think Boogie Basham would make too much sense to pass up on here. Basham (who’s cousin Tarrell is a current Jet likely to be brought back for 2021) is a relentless load to handle on the perimeter who has the kind of day one polish this team needs. Basham has a fantastic grasp on how to clog gaps on run downs, is a sure tackler with his massive wingspan, sheds blocks with a very impressive and polished array of moves, never seems to be out of position, doesn’t over pursue and get out of position and man knows how to use his long-limbed frame to create chaos. Across his last 19 games, he has forced 7 fumbles and tipped 4 passes despite being double and triple teamed week in, week out. Basham isn’t a poor athlete by any means, but I would say he’s more of a day two bend/burst combo than typical day one. That said, he has day one starter polish at 285, makes the players around him better and creates turnovers. This isn’t your 10 sack a year guy, but it’s your 6-8 sack a year, consistent 3 down/scheme versatile edge who makes the players around him better and brings much needed leadership skills.
27. *Titans*- Dylan Moses-LB-Alabama
I expect this to be one of my most controversial picks in this mock. With Clowney a free agent again, edge is a glaring need, but unless you want to reach big time for an edge there isn’t anybody left. With only 10M of cap space currently in 2021, Corey davis has likely priced himself out of town with a boom season. WR is a need but one that can be addressed later. Daquan Jones will need to be replaced at DT. But with Jayon Brown likely gone in 2021, I have to think the former LB and the former Patriot in Mike Vrabel is going to fall in love with Dylan Moses the player; as well as Dylan Moses the person. Moses is a freak athlete with a freak work ethic who clearly just loves the game of football. The movement skills, power and tackling ability are all special. That said, he’s had a somewhat down year. He has good instincts, but you can visually see him second guess himself and overthink plays. RPO’s, sudden moves and good routes have eaten him up in 2020. Who better to teach a special ball of clay how to turn his brain off than Vrabel? Moses will be a day one starter, immediate locker room leader and running back neutralizer in day one for the Titans. There will be some rough moments early on, but this is the kind of player Vrabel loves and the ceiling is really high for this pairing. A reach for Jason Oweh or Jay Tufele feel possible here as well, as could a Bateman or Marshall pick.
28. *Bills*- Shaun Wade-CB-Ohio St
Bills could use an edge if they can’t bring back Murphy, would have to take a long look at Moses if he were on the board and could really use a Pat Freiermuth...but if the draft falls like this I expect them to run to the podium. Josh Norman, Levi Wallace and Daryl Worley are all free agents in 2021 and Taron Johnson isn’t particularly good. With just 4.8M in 2021, this likely means the Bills will need a minimum of one cheap starting CB and likely both a slot and outside guy. Wade can fill both roles and is simply too talented to remain on the board here. Easy pick to make.
29. *Packers*- Rashod Bateman-WR-Minnesota
Do the Packers seemingly ever draft WR round one? No. Should they? Yep. Do they currently have the cap space to bring back Allan Lazard? Lol no. They have -18M in cap space next year. It’s worth noting that this means they are extremely unlikely to be able to resign Aaron Jones, which explains the weird AJ Dillon reach and opens up RB as a possibility. That makes me tempted to grab Kadarius Toney as a Kamara role hybrid, but that doesn’t seem like a Packers move. Terrace Marshall feels like a Packers pick, but he doesn’t block as well as Bateman and won’t be quite as good day one. I think Gutekunst will fall in love with Bateman’s boundary receiving skills, Rodgers will lobby hard for a receiver that wins with a skillset similar to Davante Adams and LaFleur will fall in love with Bateman’s alpha run-blocking game. Toss in the fact that Bateman in Green Bay will rip the heart out of Vikings fans and it’s an all around win. Linebacker is an absolutely glaring need, but all the good ones are gone and the Packers seem to hate drafting them even more than hate drafting receivers. Love this fit and pick.
30. *Chiefs*- Rashawn Slater-OT-Northwestern
The Chiefs have had one hell of a run, but 2021 will be the beginning of having to pay the piper. Even without resigning Sammy Watkins, Charvarius Ward, Breeland, Nieman, Wilson, osemele, Rieters, Remmers, Wylie, Robinson, Lev Bell, Sorenson,kpassagnon and Pennell among players who saw heavy snaps in 2020; they will be -15M in 2021 cap space. And that’s BEFORE the roster gets expensive in 2022. This means, at minimum two of the Honey Badger, Mitchell Schwartz and Eric Fisher will be cap casualties. Basically the entire o-line and secondary will be needs, as well as 1-2 WR. Rashawn Slater of “the only player not to be sucked into the void by Chase Young in 2019” fame can play 4 of the line slots, moves incredibly well for a man his size, can play in cold weather and is apparently loved by “NFL types”. This feels like a pick the Chiefs have to make.
31. *Saints*- Tyson Campbell-CB-Georgia
If you thought the Chiefs cap situation was bad….the Saints currently have -95M of cap space in 2021. -95M. Jared Cook, Alex Anzalone, Sheldon Rankins, Marcus Williams and Trey Hendrickson are impact free agents who won’t be able to be resigned. Making LB, FS, Edge and IDL big needs. Ryan Ramczyk, Marshon Lattimore, Malcolm Brown and Kwon Alexander almost 100% have to be cut. It’s a bad spot to be in. Tackle, QB, LB, DT and CB all stand out as the biggest needs. With two QB’s fully guaranteed over 33M in dead cap in 2021, reaching for a QB round one doesn’t seem likely. Jaylen Mayfield or a Liam Eichenberg seem possible, as could a Jay Tufele but there will be more potential day one starters there round two than CB. Tyson Campbell has injury concerns and has had a pretty poor 2020, but he looks built in a lab to be a CB1. I think this is the replacement for a Lattimore that the Saints simply can’t afford next year. It’s a very wide range of possible outcome player, but it’s a risk they have to take.
32. *Steelers*- Jalen Mayfield-OT-Michigan
The Steelers are yet another team in 2021 cap hell. Sitting pretty at -20M in 2021, the Steelers will have Bud Dupree, Juju, James Conner, Matt Feiler, Cam Sutton, Mike Hilton, Robert Spillane and Tyson Alualu as free agent starters. Edge, OT, CB and RB all jump out as big needs even before cap casualties and the QB of the future still isn’t in the building. In particular, tackle, edge and RB jump out as needs. Jalen Mayfield is a lab built tackle with great length, power and agility wrapped up in a prototypical frame. He is not yet a finished product, who struggles against speed to power and gets over his toes at times. But he has the traits you can’t teach and should thrive in a power concept. Year one will be up and down and in a perfect world, he’d have a year or two to season. Maybe Eichenberg will be a better fit. But he just screams Steelers power football when he gets his lower half right. I can’t see Mike Tomlin go for a RB with the ball security issues Etienne has and while Harris will be tempting, the needs up front are just too much to pass up on a potential starter.

Overperformer: Miami Dolphins (O/U 6 wins, actual 10-5)

The Dolphins are the story of the season, having essentially put a rebuild in motion in record time. Miami, which was projected to go winless just last season, finished its 2019 campaign strong by denying New England a first round bye, took a quarterback in Tua, then handed him the reins in Week 8. Flores's no name defense is one of the top units in the league, with Xavien Howard leading the league in interceptions, and they control their own playoff destiny -- Win at Buffalo and they're in. It's a lot earlier than anyone expected them to be in contention, even if they have the lowest ceiling of the AFC's five ten-win teams entering Week 17.

Underperformer: Dallas Cowboys (O/U 9.5 wins, actual 6-9)

You can't totally blame Dallas for their woes given Dak Prescott's season-ending injury. The team has taken its sweet time finding its groove under Andy Dalton, looking totally lost without Dak putting up record numbers on offense in the first several weeks. Mike McCarthy has also made some puzzling decisions, such as the fake punt against Washington where a receiver ran twenty yards behind the line of scrimmage on a 4th and long deep within their own territory. Despite all that, they still have a chance to win a historically terrible NFC East with a win vs the Giants and a Philadelphia win against a quarterback-challenged Washington Football Team.

Overperformer: Justin Herbert (Chargers O/U 7.5 wins, actual 6-9)

Don't get me wrong. The Chargers' season is terrible and Anthony Lynn deserves to be fired. But Herbert was been the biggest surprise of the 2020 NFL draft, being third off the board, and he is the reason this team has six wins. He was outplaying first overall pick Joe Burrow even before the latter's season-ending injury, passing Andrew Luck's total touchdown record, and looks damn comfortable doing it. He was thrown right into the fire, without first team reps in Week 2, and took the defending champion Chiefs to overtime. Outside of a 45-0 dismantling by the Patriots on special teams, Herbert and his Chargers have only lost one game by more than 1 score. Denver and Las Vegas better watch out - there are two incredible signal callers in the AFC West now.

Underperformer: New England Patriots (O/U 9.5 wins, actual 6-9)

New England lost its star quarterback of twenty years this season and it looked like its offense regressed by forty. Former MVP Cam Newton has twice as many picks as he does passing touchdowns and he only has ten interceptions. It's not unusual to tune in to a Patriots game and see a statline of less than 75 yards passing. It's a testament that Bill Belichick has dragged this roster to a 6-9 record, but the Patriots' reign of terror in the AFC East - 19 consecutive winning seasons, 11 consecutive division titles, 8 consecutive AFC championship appearances - is over, and a 38-9 pantsing by Josh Allen and crew on Monday confirmed it.

Overperformer: The Texans' draft picks (Houston O/U 8 wins, actual 4-11)

The Dolphins are in playoff contention and may walk into the off-season with the third overall pick in the NFL draft. How? Bill O'Brien, that's how. The former Texan dictator sent Miami two first round picks for the rights to sign Laremy Tunsil to a back-breaking deal, before he was fired after starting 0-4. Houston is 4-11, worse than all of the NFC East, JJ Watt is ripping into his teammates for not playing hard enough, and unlike every other team, their fans have no high draft picks for consolation. Thanks BoB.

Underperformer: Drew Lock (Denver O/U 7.5 wins, actual 5-10)

Lock had much hype going into the off-season by going 4-1 as a starter on a team that finished 7-9 last year, but he hasn't proven that he is the QB1 Elway is looking for. Yes, Denver had that terrible game where a practice squad WR started at QB, and Brett Rypien did come in relief of Lock early in the season, but in a division where Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert are some of the league's best signal callers, and Derek Carr is a plenty serviceable quarterback, there isn't much hope this Denver offense can come anywhere close to the heights it reached with Manning under center.

Overperformer: Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay O/U 9 wins, actual 12-3)

Aaron Rodgers is back in MVP form and the Packers are looking like Super Bowl favorites. Rodgers rediscovered the fun in football during the off-season, one in which his front office traded up to select his potential replacement. He has 44 touchdowns to just 5 picks, and Green Bay looks to be in position to make sure the road to the Super Bowl in the NFC will run through snowy Lambeau Field. And why is that so important? In a crucial test of their defense against Tennessee, who have a snowplow named Derrick Henry at running back, the Packers dismantled the Titans at home, holding the league's previously top ranked offense to 14 points, all while Rodgers locked up his case for league MVP by throwing for four touchdowns.

Underperformer: Bruce Arians (Tampa O/U 9.5 wins, actual 10-5)

Even if the Bucs lose to the Falcons this week, Bruce Arians and Tom Brady will still surpass their betting odds and return this franchise to the postseason for the first time since 2007. But Arians and Brady have constantly squabbled over the course of the season, and it's clear Arians is no Belichick. The Tampa OL cannot give the 43 year old Brady the time he needs to execute all the dropbacks in Arians's vertical scheme, and it's limited this Buccaneers offense against blitz heavy teams like the Saints and Giants. When it's working, it's beautiful, like this week's 47-7 spanking of the Lions, but Arians needs to adjust his game plan against better teams, as proven in back to back losses against the Rams and Chiefs.

Overperformer: Kyle Shanahan (SF O/U 10.5, actual 6-9)

The Niners are out of the playoffs following a Super Bowl run. How is Shanahan overperforming? He has his squad competing despite a historical bout of injury luck, losing QB Jimmy Garoppolo, D Linemen Nick Bosa and Solomon Thomas to season ending injuries, and RB Raheem Mostert and TE George Kittle were out significant playing time throughout the season. On top of that, COVID regulations made the Niners homeless, sending them to Arizona to close the regular season. But the Niners are competitive week in and week out, having embarrassed Kyler Murray and the Cardinals at their own home despite Robbie Gould missing three field goals.

Underperformer: Jared Goff (Rams O/U 8.5 wins, actual 9-6)

The Rams' running game is having a rebound year after cutting Todd Gurley, with breakout stars Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson. Sean McVay's new D coordinator has the Rams defense rolling as a top 10 unit. But Jared Goff has now lost two straight, leads the league in turnovers since the 2019 season, and they would probably be out of the playoffs if they hadn't been scheduled to play the NFC East this year and swept them. Goff looked especially poor in a 23-20 loss to the previously winless Jets, and actual human beings are now debating whether John Wolford, a man without any NFL starts to his name and is the backup on the depth chart for a reason, might be the better quarterback anyway after Goff broke his thumb in a demoralizing loss to the Seahawks that threatens to knock them out of the postseason entirely.

Overperformer: Josh Allen (Buffalo O/U 9 wins, actual 12-3)

The Bills are division champions for the first time in 25 years, and Allen has emerged as a dark horse MVP candidate in his third year. He has legitimately matured as a signal caller, having been drafted with all the talent in the world locked behind some raw mechanics. Credit to the Buffalo staff, who have managed to perform the rare feat of fixing a quarterback's accuracy longer after most deemed feasible, and have surrounded him with the weapons he needs to succeed. Stefon Diggs was a plug-and-play fit into OC Brian Daboll's offense, while Cole Beasley is quietly having a monster year. If they can give him a true running game, this Buffalo team will be an AFC playoff contender for years to come.

Underperformer: Adam Gase (Jets O/U 6.5 wins, actual 2-13)

Adam Gase has been bailed out from being remembered as part of an exclusive group of coaches who led a winless campaign, but he remains a terrible head coach who no team should ever want. The Jets squad he fielded had Sam Darnold regressing in his third year, and he steadfastly refused to make adjustments to make his team's life easier. And he had the audacity to make his fans suffer thirteen straight losses without even giving them the number one overall pick, which would have gifted them one of the most talented quarterbacks to ever come out of college.

Overperformer: Cleveland Browns (O/U 8.5 wins, actual 10-5)

While the Browns have technically not clinched a playoff berth yet in a historically deep AFC wild card scramble, Kevin Stefanski has his Browns rolling and playing spectacular ball, including in a game-of-the-year candidate 47-42 loss at Baltimore, and they are in control of their own playoff destiny. Their loss to the Jets last week was demoralizing, but Baker Mayfield also had no receivers after they were ruled out because of contract tracing protocols. This weekend, the Browns are in a win-and-in scenario against a Steelers team with nothing to play for, so barring another COVID-related debacle or a very Browns-esque collapse, they are playoff-bound for the first time since 2002.

Underperformer: Nick Foles (Chicago O/U 8 wins, actual 8-7)

Chicago remains in control of their playoff destiny with a win-and-in scenario at Soldier Field this weekend, but it's tough to argue Nick Foles hasn't underperformed this season. He was brought in to light a fire under Trubisky's bum, which, while it has certainly happened the last few weeks and has brought rumors of a contract extension for the latter, might also have been come from Mitch playing against some terrible defenses. More concerningly for Foles, he was named starter and led the Bears to the cusp of playoff elimination after losing six straight amidst a 5-1 start, playing such poor ball that head coach Matt Nagy surrendered playcalling duties to his offensive coordinator. He twice threw for no touchdowns in a six-week span before he lost his job to Trubisky after an injury.

WEEK 15

BUFFALO BILLS (10-3) @ DENVER BRONCOS (5-8)

STATS

From Pro Football Reference
Offense

Stats
Points	257	359
Yards	4272	4880
Y/P	5.2	5.9
TO	29	19
PYds	2749	3547
PTDs	18	30
INTs	21	9
NY/A	6.0	7.1
CMP%	56.9%	68.6%
RYds	1523	1333
RTDs	9	10
YA	4.3	4.0

Defense

Stats
Points	347	321
Yards	4572	4730
Y/P	5.3	5.7
TO	11	21
PYds	2869	3171
PTDs	16	21
INTs	8	12
NY/A	5.8	6.4
CMP%	66.1%	65.9%
RYds	1703	1559
RTDs	17	16
YA	4.6	4.6

Degenerate Gambling Stuff
BUF -6 | O/U 49.5

WEATHEBROADCAST

2:30 MT/3:30 CT/4:30 ET/1:30 ET/9:30 GMT @ Empower Field @ Mile High
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INJURY

DEN Injury Report | BUF Injury Report

FAST FACTS

From PotRoastBoobs

• Drew Lock threw a career-best four touchdown passes and recorded the third-highest quarterback rating (149.5) in Broncos history against Carolina in Week 14.
  
• Denver’s offensive line has used five different offensive line combinations in 2020 and has allowed 25 sacks (1.9 sacks per game) this season. Since allowing 13 sacks in Weeks 2-3, the Broncos rank tied for third in the NFL in sacks allowed (12) and sacks allowed per game (1.2).
  
• KJ Hamler totaled a career high 86 receiving yards and two touchdowns on just two receptions. Hamler became the 10th rookie wide receiver in NFL history to record two catches, two touchdowns and at least 80 receiving yards in a single game.
  
• Justin Simmons has recorded four interceptions through 13 games in 2020. His 15 career interceptions are tied for the second most in Broncos history by a player through his first five seasons. Simmons needs one interception to become the second Bronco to record 16 picks during his first five seasons with the team (since 1970).
  

TEAM CONNECTIONS

From PotRoastBoobs

• Bills WR Isaiah McKenzie appeared in 12 games with the Broncos from 2017-18.

RANDOM THOUGHTS

• I was wrong about Shorts

AROUND THE AFC WEST

Team		Opp.	Date	Time/Score
KC	@	NO	12/20	2:25
LAC	@	LV	12/17	30 - 24
LV		LAC	12/17	30 - 24

THREAD NOTES

This thread is specifically geared toward Broncos fans.
Sort by new for the most recent comments.
Pick your flair in the sidebar.
Subscribe to /denverbroncos

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As crazy as this sounds, we are only three weeks away from the NFL playoffs and the picture is starting to manifest itself. In this breakdown I’m ranking all 32 teams and I use different tiers to describe how I feel about them. While there are plenty of statistics to support the cases I want to make for them, I tried to limit those to a smaller degree, because at this point of the season it’s all about what I have learned from studying them every week and what my eyes tell me.
Here we go:

Top-tier:

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These are the four truly complete teams. You can find concerns if you nit-pick, but I don’t think there is an obvious weakness for any of them at this stage. The top three arguably have the three best quarterbacks in the NFL, while the other two have elite offensive play-callers and top five defenses. Football is all about matchups, so they could have a bad draw, but in general I think they are all winning at least one playoff game and have a legitimate shot to go the distance.
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1. Kansas City Chiefs (12-1)
You can find those little flaws if you are looking for them, but to me the Chiefs are still clearly the number one team in the league. They can lack some urgency at times and we have seen them let teams hang around for multiple weeks now, with no multiple-score wins since their week ten bye. However, even when they are down in games, you know at some point they will turn it on and make a run, like scoring 30 straight in 18 minutes last week at Miami. And if you give Patrick Mahomes the ball at the end of the game, whether you’re up or down, they will finish the job. Kansas City still number one in point differential for the season (+9.4) and until last week they were tied with Pittsburgh for number one in turnover margin (now +8). I think there’s about two teams in each conference that could make for exciting matchups against them, but I don’t think anybody is beating the Chiefs on a neutral field – and the playoffs will probably go through Arrowhead.
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2. Green Bay Packers (10-3)
Aaron Rodgers is my choice MVP right now. He has been absolutely phenomenal, with only one blemish to his record and that was the only time the Packers really didn’t show up, back in week six at Tampa Bay. The chemistry between Rodgers and Davante Adams is unbelievable, but that running back duo is phenomenal as well and the offensive line has been one of the most consistent ones in all of football. Plus, Matt LaFleur has turned himself into one of the top offensive play-callers in the game. Defensively, my one big issue was their interior front, which has been vulnerable to the run game, and that’s the one area you can still question, but since Dalvin Cook had that monster game against them, they have held opponents to under 100 yards rushing on average over these past six weeks. You can argue that the Saints are a little more complete in terms of NFC opponents, but the difference in quarterback play is substantial and they are becoming a better all-around squad.
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3. Buffalo Bills (10-3)
Where are the people who told me Josh Allen will absolutely not be an MVP candidate at the end of the season? After Mahomes and Rodgers there is no quarterback who you can tell me has clearly been better than him. While the run game hasn’t been very consistent, I like the combination of Moss & Singletary, while Allen is a major factor in that area as well, and Brian Daboll understands when he is in matchups where he can utilize it. Their defense has really come along as well, after they had some issues early on – especially defending the run, holding opponents to just 18.7 points since their bye three weeks ago – and I believe that has something to do with Sean McDermott getting more involved in the defensive game-planning. They do a tremendous job of taking away staples of the opposing team’s passing game and over this three-game stretch since their bye they have given up just under 70 yards rushing on average.
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4. New Orleans Saints (10-3)
This is actually the one team with a real question mark potentially, because we just don’t know for sure where Drew Brees is in his recovery and he hasn’t been great this season either way. However, assuming he is fine for their playoff run and they can win at least one more game to hold on to the division title, they are a very complete team that wins at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Sean Peyton is as good an offensive game-designer and team motivator as we have in the league and while that loss in Philadelphia last Sunday is obviously on our minds, let’s not forget that they had won nine straight before that. Now, you can argue that they have faced some clearly inferior teams, but they have won close and they have blown teams out. Since their week six bye, this past Sunday was their first time of not reaching 100 rushing yards (over 150 on average), while their defense has been phenomenal. What it really comes down to is that until their trip to Philly, their quarterbacks had not been sacked more than the opposing team’s since their early bye and they were recording 2.5 more sacks on a weekly basis. However, they are still the most penalized team in the league (843 yards)
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Contenders:

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These are all very good teams that have shown the ability to beat anybody in this tier or the one above it, but I don’t quite put them on that same elite level as the top four, because there is one clear weakness with them. Whether it may be a specific part like the pass-rush or skill-position talent, not having a schematic advantage in most weeks (at least on one side of the ball) or even team chemistry.
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5. Los Angeles Rams (9-4)
The only way you can make this team look bad is if you can mostly take away the run game, the boots and screens that mask Jared Goff, because we have seen that if you force him to be a drop-back passer and read the field, there are some issues. But just go back two weeks ago, when they played in Arizona – Sean McVay finds ways to move the pocket and he has become more diverse this season with his run schemes, rather than being a zone-only run team. The Rams have two of the most underrated receivers in the league, I like how they have used much more 12 personnel this season and making rookie Cam Akers their featured back is already paying big dividends. The star of the show however has been the defense, holding opponents to a league-low 4.6 yards per play and just 31 plays of 20+ yards. They have the best defensive lineman and the top corner in all of football, but it really has been the lesser-known commodities that have made the difference for them. Darious Williams as a phenomenal across Jalen Ramsey, rookie Jordan Fuller is a ball magnet and former first-round pick Leonard Floyd is turning his career around in L.A.
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6. Seattle Seahawks (9-4)
The Russell Wilson MVP run has completely disappeared when you look at the Vegas odds, but he is still having an excellent season, as he is on pace to complete 70 percent of his passes for the first time in his career and he has already reached a personal best 36 passing TDs. We have seen the turnovers ramp up and Seattle’s four losses have come in the games he has given it away multiple times, because they didn’t have much room for error because of their defense. The reason I have them this high is because they have seen more balance from them offensively, with an average of 124.6 rushing yards since their week six bye, and their defense has really made some strides. I know the two New York teams are in there, but since they got lit up by Josh Allen back in week nine, they have held opponents to just 16.2 points, without those major mess-ups and coming together as a unit. They are top ten in sacks (36) and make their opponents one-dimensional, holding them to just 3.9 yards per carry.
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7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-5)
When I was referencing team chemistry in the intro for this tier, this is the squad that primarily made me mention it. Tampa Bay beat the Panthers and Raiders by over 20 points since then, but most of that came in the fourth quarter until which those games had been very pretty competitive, so their last truly complete performance came against the Packers all the way back in week six. They have questions about their offensive identity (no matter how much Bruce Arians is puffing his chest out after last week’s win), they have gone away from the run game in their losses and when they go really shotgun-heavy, their O-line has not looked the same in those one-on-ones. Their defense has shown moments of dominance, with a very dangerous pass-rush (second-highest pressure percentage at 27.8%) and two linebackers that can really fly around, but their corners have gotten torched at times and the really good offensive play-callers have been able to take advantage of some of the tendencies they have shown.
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8. Baltimore Ravens (8-5)
So many people said the Ravens were dead three weeks ago – they had the biggest COVID outbreak in the league, Lamar Jackson was getting criticized by the media and the defense was getting banged up. Now all of a sudden they are on track for a Wildcard spot, if they can just win out with a pretty soft schedule ahead and all they need is for one of the three other contenders in the AFC to lose at least one game. Things have not come as easy for Lamar as they did in his MVP season, but the real issue for this time is a lack of play-making outside the numbers and not enough creativity in the drop-back pass game altogether. They have gotten back to punching people in the mouth with the run game and I’m glad to see them make rookie J.K. Dobbins their top option out of the backfield. We have seen defenses give them trouble when they crowd the middle of the field, but if they can evolve a little bit in their perimeter passing attack and open up the field, they can create a lot of problems. Baltimore’s defense just gave up 42 points, but when that group is healthy, they have the potential to be a top-five unit, with an elite secondary.
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9, Pittsburgh Steelers (11-2)
This is obviously a lot lower than where they would have been two weeks ago, when they were still the only undefeated team in the league and other than Kansas City, you probably couldn’t have put anybody else above them. However, they have now lost back-to-back games – in fairness those two teams will likely go to the playoffs – and their offense has been highly concerning. Over the second half of their season, they have reached 100 rushing yards just once and average just 54.3 yards on the ground over that stretch, plus through the air everybody is all over the quick game and the Steelers rarely attack beyond the sticks, other than trying to draw some pass interference calls on shots outside the numbers. With that being said, while drops have been a major issue recently, they have a dynamic receiving corp and while they have lost a couple of pieces to injury, their defense is still number one in points allowed, sacks (45) and pressure percentage (33.5%) , takeaways (25) and therefore also turnover differential (+11).
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10. Cleveland Browns (9-4)
If the Browns at least win two of their final three games – a two-week trip to face the New York teams and hosting the Steelers, who could have nothing to play for in the season finale – they are pretty much guaranteed to make the playoffs (as long as BAL, MIA, TEN & IND don’t all win out). I know they actually have a point differential of -20 on the season, but those 63 combined points they lost by in blowout fashion against the Ravens and Steelers early on are a major factor in that and if you look at their three matchups before this, they were actually winning big until opposing teams somehow added points late. Cleveland has the number three rushing offense (156.2 yards per game) with the premiere RB duo in the league, but they are still tied for fifth-most plays of 20+ yards (55) and Baker Mayfield arguably just played the two best games of his pro career these last couple of weeks. They can go 22 personnel and pound you with the run, but then also take play-action shots off it and then also create issues from empty sets. And until they had their number one corner Denzel Ward in the lineup, they were at least average in every meaningful statistical category, with a phenomenal D-line.
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11. Tennessee Titans (9-4)
I brought this up in my week 14 recap – Derrick Henry has a chance to break the single-season rushing record, if he can average 191 yards on the ground over these last three games, which all feature bottom-five run defenses arguably (DET, GB & HOU). Of course Henry is the heartbeat of the Tennessee offense, but also big plays, as only five teams have recorded more plays of 20+ yards (53), despite also only five teams having thrown the ball less. No team is better at getting chunks off play-action, with A.J. Brown and Corey Davis routinely catching deep crossers and in-breaking routes behind the linebackers. And Ryan Tannehill is having an excellent season in general, while we have seen him execute at a really high level with little time on the clock and make things happen when they needed to put the ball in his hands. The Titans are tied with Green Bay for the fewest turnovers committed in the league at nine – and a third of those came against Cleveland, where they got steamrolled in the first half before ultimately cutting the lead to one touchdown. The defense is concerning part, with a league-low 14 sacks on the season and the highest third-down percentage allowed (52.2%), while they have had some bad performances from their special teams.
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12. Indianapolis Colts (9-4)
The Colts surprisingly are just outside the top ten in scoring defense (23.0 points per game), but by far their worst performance came without their best defensive player DeForest Buckner against the Titans a couple of weeks ago, and they are outstanding in second halves, surrendering just 7.8 points on average. Their front-seven if phenomenal and they have guys in the secondary who can take away the ball, while having missed just 62 tackles all season long (second-fewest) and scored four touchdowns themselves (most). What I really like about the Colts is how much they improved in the run game, where they have gone from a surprisingly bad start to now have rookie Jonathan Taylor really becoming their workhorse, averaging 110 yards and six yards per carry over these last three games. And with Philip Rivers taking better care of the ball and delivering big throws on third downs, they have now had their best three-game scoring run (34.7) and they are tied for second in turnover differential on the season at +10. And only two teams have a better difference between their starting drives and the ones of their opponents at +5.
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Fringe playoff teams:

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None of these teams have a playoff spot secured and if my calculations are correct, only two of them control their own destiny, in terms of making the cut if they win out, regardless of what else happens around the league. And only two of them will ultimately make it most likely. None of these squads blow you away. They all have bad losses on their resume and there are multiple areas that has disappointed at times.
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13. Miami Dolphins (8-5)
The Dolphins came a little short from pulling off a comeback against the Chiefs this past Sunday after KC had that big run, and that most likely takes them out of the race for the AFC East, but they still control their own playoff destiny as far as I can tell. The Miami defense has been incredible. They are either first or second in points allowed (18.8), takeaways (25) and third-down percentage (33.1). Their coaching staff does an excellent job of teaching and game-planning for specific matchups. Offensively, injuries have been a story for them pretty much all season long, while the switch to Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback has certainly been in character with the horizontal passing attack from OC Chan Gailey. The big issue for them is the lack of explosive plays – only the Bengals (32) have less than their 34 plays of 20+ yards. And while they do run the ball at an middle-of-the-pack rate, they are averaging a league-low 3.6 yards per carry. That’s why they can’t really control the pace of games but also not be as dynamic scoring to keep up with the high-flying offenses. Still, before their loss to Kansas City on Sunday, they had won seven of their last eight and they are sixth in point differential with +6.5
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14. Arizona Cardinals (7-6)
This team is a little tough to figure out where to put. Everybody loved them when they were 6-3, but then then were a Hail Mary against Buffalo away from losing five straight and then they completely dominate the Giants, who were getting hyped up a week ago. In theory, they have one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the league, they have shown the ability to run the ball effectively, I like some of the things Vance Joseph does schematically on defense and some of their young players on that side of that ball have really come in their own. Unfortunately, Kliff Kingsbury’s offense leaves me wanting to see more, with opposing teams being able to just man up and anticipate passing concepts, while their 13th-ranked scoring defense only looks as good on paper as they do because they have feasted in their matchup versus three NFC East teams and the Jets (10.5 PPG in those matchups). They control their own destiny and could be lucky if their one true remaining test comes against the Rams in week 17, when those guys have nothing to play for potentially, but if they make it, I’m worried about what happens when the really well-coached NFC teams can solely focus on them.
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15. Washington Football Team (6-7)
Over their current four-game winning streak (second-longest active one to Kansas City), Washington leads all teams in point differential at +12.5 and the only teams that are actually close are the Saints and Seahawks, who had blowout wins over the QB-less Broncos and winless Jets respectively during that stretch. They have to hope that rookie RB Antonio Gibson can return without much of an issue from his turf toe, because the offense is really all about him and their one stud receiver Terry McLaurin. They are certainly limited in the pass game, with by far their best option at quarterback being somebody who couldn’t even walk properly at the start of the calendar year, who doesn’t really create out of structure anyway. At the same time, they just scored 23 points and won a game without an offensive touchdown this past Sunday. Their defensive line is absolutely loaded with first-round talent and they have no fear of attacking patterns and trying to take away easy yardage against the pass. That’s why they are tied for third-fewest yards allowed per play (5.0) and they are sixth in points allowed despite their bad start to the season (21.2).
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16. New England Patriots (6-7)
These Patriots are holding on for dear life here. They are not very talented. Cam Newton has not looked the same since missing time with COVID early on in the season, with more than 180 passing yards just three times on the year, none of their receivers would be more than a WR3 on teams with average pass-catching groups and if we can agree that Miami wasn’t who they are now in the season-opener, the only good defense they have score over 20 points against all season was the Ravens – and they were really banged up coming into that matchup. They still have one of the top secondaries in the league and are incredibly well-coached of course on that side of the ball, but they lack beef on the defensive interior, which has them as a bottom-ten run defense, and they have suffered blowout losses to elite offensive play-callers like Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay. They are once again the least penalized team in the league (just 442 yards against) and they destroyed the Chargers 45-0 just two weeks ago, in large part because their special teams were so amazing and how much better their coaching was, but that’s not enough against great teams.
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17. Las Vegas Raiders (7-6)
This might be surprising to some people, but the Raiders are the only team in the league to score on at least half of their offensive drives. We have seen them beat opposing teams up with the run game, with a couple of 200-yard performances already this season, but they have almost gone 2-0 in shootouts against the Chiefs and Derek Carr has had his best season since making a run at the MVP award several years ago. Unfortunately, their defense has really only had a couple of good games. They are one of only three units to allow 30 points per game – and the other two are the Cowboys and Jets. And they also allow opponents to convert exactly half of their third downs (tied for third-highest). In college football-fashion, they have a few quality wins on their resume over the Saints, Chiefs and Browns – but they have fallen off dramatically recently. Over the last three weeks they have now lost by 37 to the Falcons, 17 to the Colts and they needed a miracle touchdown (and a really bad defensive call) to beat the winless Jets.
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18. Minnesota Vikings (6-7)
When you look at the numbers from Minnesota’s game against the Bucs, it almost doesn’t make sense that they lost by 12 points – ten first downs more and 18 minutes more time of possession. Their kicker Dan Bailey had a horrible showing, but special teams have been an issue all season long – only making a league-low two third of their FG attempts, untimely muffs and returns suffered. On paper the offense should be one of the best in the league, with a superstar running back, an outstanding receiver duo and Kirk Cousins capable of making big throws with the right pieces around him. Yet, if you take away the season-opener against Green Bay when most of it came in garbage time, they have only scored more than 30 points twice this season and their 22 giveaways are tied for fifth in the league. The defense has shown some improvement from their horrible 1-5 start, but they have nobody on the roster with more than 3.5 sacks at this point and their young corners have been taken advantage of routinely. I could see them win out potentially, but they still need some help to sneak into the playoffs.
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Striving to reach .500:

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While I believe about half of these teams have the potential to put together complete games and there is potential to good all-around, none of them have been able to actually do it for an extended stretch. For me one side of the ball has clearly held them back for most of the season and only one of them actually still has a chance to earn a winning record, while another one at best could finish a half game below .500 – but still somehow has an outside shot of winning their division.
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19. San Francisco 49ers (5-8)
One of the biggest disappointments of this 2020 season has been the 49ers. And it’s not really about their players messing up or anything like that, they have just been unlucky. No other team has put more players on injured reserve than San Francisco and it happened to key pieces. As brilliant as Kyle Shanahan I believe is and as well as that defense has played for the most part, somebody has to deliver the ball in the passing game and at some points those injuries will catch up to you. Nick Mullens has been rough to watch ever since taking over as the starter. They have gone 1-4 over that stretch and they have turned the ball over more than three times per game. Now only the Broncos have turned the ball over more than the Niners (25) on the season. And defensively I know elite quarterbacks like Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen carved them up, but when you look at the rest of the schedule, it was their offensive turnovers and their special teams in one matchup in particular that has set put their own guys in a bad position.
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20. New York Giants (5-8)
Just a week ago it felt like EVERYBODY was jumping on the Giants bandwagon and it’s like everybody has gotten off even quicker. Daniel Jones could not move because of his hamstrings and the Cardinals were able to completely out for the run, while recording eight total sacks once they got Big Blue in obvious passing situations and turnovers setting Arizona up in the red-zone twice. New York still has a top-ten defense in my opinion, where they throw a lot of different looks at opponents and only the Rams have surrendered less plays of 20+ yards (39). Their offense is certainly more troubling to me, but unless Jalen Hurts looks like he did in his first career start going forward, Daniel Jones is the best quarterback in that division and until this past Sunday, the G-Men had gone for over 100 rushing yards in eight games and averaged 148.9 yards over that stretch. They are still the second-worst scoring offense in the league (18.3 points per game), but those numbers are heavily influenced by their 0-5 start. Joe Judge and his coaching staff have these guy on the right track and they have the season-sweep over Washington. So if they can win one more game than the Football Team over these final three weeks, they host a playoff game – but they have a tough finish ahead.
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21. Philadelphia Eagles (4-8-1)
I think I would have originally had the Eagles five or six spots lower and in the tier below this one had I put out these rankings a week ago. So I’m glad I didn’t and waited to see what Jalen Hurts looked like in his first career start – and he was awesome. I didn’t understand the Saints’ defensive gameplan, but that team certainly had some juice with the switch under center, whether it’s the defense playing with their hair on fire or people like Alshon Jeffery even making big catches. Once again Philly has suffered a ton of injuries, especially on the O-line, but Hurts’ mobility can help out with that, if Miles Sanders has some space, he can be a dynamic player and all of a sudden Doug Pederson actually had a gameplan. Outside of their trip to Green Bay, the Eagles defense has been playing very well in recent weeks, with a hungry pass-rush and the back-seven aggressively coming upfield and punishing guys for touching the ball. At best, Philly can now finish 7-8-1, but as crazy as that sounds, if they win out, while Washington and the Giants at least lose one other game, the Eagles are your division champs. And what would be more NFC East or 2020 than that.
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22. Denver Broncos (5-8)
This is another tricky one. The Broncos started their season 0-3 with really tough games against the Titans, Steelers and Buccaneers. Since then they have gone 5-5 and played some really good football at times – wins over New England and Miami, a crazy comeback against the Chargers and playing the Chiefs close, plus one of those losses came when they didn’t have an actual quarterback on the roster. However, they also got blown their doors blow off by the Chiefs the first time around, the Raiders and the Saints (in that QB-less matchup). The big theme for this squad has been turnovers. They have given the ball away a league-high 29 times and they have forced the second-fewest turnovers (11), which makes their differential of -18 eight worse than any other team in the league. When you don’t convert your third downs offensively (only 37.6%) and allow big plays on defense (53 plays of 20+ yards), that is a problem. However, Drew Lock just played his best game as a pro and he has a lot of young talent around him catching passes, while they have averaged 127 rushing yards a game since their 0-3 start. And the defense has been getting after opposing quarterbacks – 32 sacks since then as well.
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23. Chicago Bears (6-7)
I don’t really like talking about the Bears anymore. When they started the season 5-1, I was among many to say they are not nearly as good as their record indicates – they lost six straight. When I put out my rankings of the top ten defenses about a month ago, I said they were the second-best unit in the league – they lay a complete egg and give up 41 points against the Packers and then pull a miracle in the wrong way to give away the Lions game and allow them to score 34. And then when I’m finally ready to fully write them off, they hold one of the hottest quarterbacks in football in Deshaun Watson to seven points and the offense finally wakes up in a get-right matchup against the Texans. I know they have faced poor defenses and he made some bad mistakes at Green Bay, but since Mitch Trubisky was inserted back into the lineup following their bye, they have averaged just over 30 points. And we know that defense can ball. When Akiem Hicks has been in the lineup, they have been elite or close to it in all areas. They could easily win at Minnesota and at Jacksonville and then we don’t know if the Packers have anything to play for when they come to Soldier Field in the season finale. So if that happens and Arizona just loses one game, they are most likely in the playoffs. Crazy.
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24. Detroit Lions (5-8)
A 5-8 record is not horrible and if they don’t blow that big lead to Chicago in the season-opener, they are well alive in the hunt for the NFC’s seven seed, with a win over Arizona and a chance to tie season-series with Minnesota. However, they are just looking to finish the year on a high note and make this look like a more desirable head coaching job. There is just nothing that really impresses you about the football team. They are bottom four in run offense and defense – so their opponents can always control the pace of the game. They are tied for the third-most yards per play allowed (6.0) and they have forced the third-fewest takeaways (12) – so there’s a heavy imbalance in big plays made between their defense and the opposing offense. And they are losing all the crucial situations when you compare their percentages with the ones of their opponents – minus 5.2% on third downs, 4.2% on fourth downs and 6.8% in red-zone scoring. Matt Stafford and Matt Prater have had moments of brilliance late in games, but as a team they just brought it enough on a weekly basis.
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Already out of it:

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The teams in this group have all been eliminated from playoff contention and show multiple issues. A couple of them have top ten quarterbacks this season in my book and I wouldn’t say any of them can’t win with who they have under center, but all five of them field bottom-half defenses and a couple of them just don’t know how to manage and win game at a high rate.
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25. Carolina Panthers (4-9)
This might be the best 4-9 team I have ever seen. Of course you can go back and look at times that have gotten hurt – and the Panthers have missed their best player in Christian McCaffrey – but in general they have been pretty healthy. Teddy Bridgewater has played the best football of his career under OC Joe Brady, they have a dangerous receiver trio, some of these young studs on defense have really shown up, like Brian Burns and Jeremy Chinn, and they have hung tough in pretty much every game all season long. They just haven’t been able to actually pull it off, with all but two of their nine losses being by one possession and those couple of matchups with the Bucs were competitive until the fourth quarter too. Matt Rhule has built a foundation in Carolina that will win him a lot of games sooner than rather and when you look at the rest of the NFC South, none of them have a long-term solution at quarterback and they will all face significant cap problems in the future. So bite the bullet here and maybe give it another year, because then this team is ready to take over that division.
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26. Houston Texans (4-9)
Man, I feel so bad for Deshaun Watson. That guy is an elite quarterback and with the way Bill O’Brien and the entire organization have conducted business, they probably cost him a chance to go to a Super Bowl potentially during his rookie contract. Hopefully this season is as bad as it’s going to get, because he has been the only real bright spot. The two obvious problems with this team – they can’t run the ball and their defense has been absolutely atrocious. They only have two runs of 20+ yards all season long and if you take their quarterback out of it, they are averaging a miniscule 3.5 yards per carry (would be worst in the league). And their defense is the only one that ranks bottom three in average yards allowed per pass (7.9) and run (5.0), while they are also the only unit with single-digit takeaways (eight) – and six of those came against the Jaguars and Lions. The only two times they have allowed less than 20 points came against Jacksonville in one of their matchups and then at Cleveland in the rain, when the final score was 10-7 for the Browns. So because of that, only the Jets have less time of possession (27:10). When you look at their four wins on the season, it was all about Deshaun – and he almost got them one each over the top two teams in the AFC South, but he never touched the ball against the Titans and a bad snap from the opposing two-yard line cost them the Colts game.
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27. Los Angeles Chargers (4-9)
I can’t remember the last time I’ve seen a team with worse coaching than this one. When it comes to a lack of adjustments being made, disgusting time management, the amount of big leads this time has surrendered and so many other things. It has just been a joke. And I feel bad for the players, because Justin Herbert is having a phenomenal rookie season, most likely setting new marks in all the major categories, Keenan Allen has been incredible and Joey Bosa has been terrorizing opposing backfields when healthy. Yet, the only reason they lost last week is because they faced another team that has no freaking idea of how to win a game late and Matt Ryan gifted them a chance to pull it off in the end. When you look at total yards, explosive plays all kinds of statistics, it almost makes no sense. The craziest number I can bring up for this team is that if you take out their embarrassing 45-0 debacle against the Patriots, they have scored just 1.5 less than their opponents – and they are 4-9. I’m so annoyed that Herbert’s rookie season will be kind of forgotten because of how bad the team was, but I just hope they put a competent coaching staff around him and they can finally break this curse they have been under as a franchise.
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28. Atlanta Falcons (4-9)
I just talked about how the Falcons should have won that Chargers game last week – they had the ball twice in scoring range over the last four minutes and they blew it. Just like they did when they held a 15-point lead until five minutes left against the Cowboys in week two or when Todd Gurley fell into the end-zone when you were basically guaranteed a win if your kicker can just hit a 20-yard field goal at the end. Interim head coach Raheem Morris gave them some life in the middle of the season, but they disqualified themselves from any outside shot of somehow being in the playoff conversation with these last two losses, after they had a 43-6 blowout win over the Raiders. The defense has shown a lot of improvement since their 0-5 start, but the defense has not been able to get stops when they really needed it for the most part. And while the offense has a lot of firepower in theory, but Julio Jones has been banged up all season long, they are 25th in rushing offense and they have not scored enough points when they were put in those situations. Atlanta is one of only two teams in the league – to go along with the Jets – to not convert more than half of their red-zone trips into touchdowns.
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29. Dallas Cowboys (4-9)
Don’t let their 30-7 win over the Bengals fool you – this is not a good team. The Cowboys were 2-7 coming out of their bye week and then when pulled off the upset over the Vikings, everybody was like “Could they still win the NFC East?”, which is more an indictment on that division than where they were as a team. They went on to get embarrassed (again) on Thanksgiving by Washington and then Baltimore ran for almost 300 yards on them over the following two weeks. They have allowed the most points all season long (400) and they have allowed four different teams to go for over 200 rushing yards this season. That doesn’t mix well with turning the ball over at the third-highest rate league-wide (24 total) and your defense allowing opponents to convert half of their third-down attempts. Andy Dalton has played fairly well when available, but Zeke has been a major disappointment, the O-line has been devastated with injuries and I think I have said enough about their defense.
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Final tier in the comments!
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If you enjoyed this breakdown, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece - https://halilsrealfootballtalk.com/2020/12/17/nfl-power-rankings-heading-into-the-final-three-weeks-of-the-2020-season/
And make sure to check out my detailed recap of every game from the NFL's week 14 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tra31Htw-Ps
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You can find all my social media linked there as well!

Hello Jets Fam, and welcome back to your New York Jets Tank Guide! Let’s check where the Football Outsiders odds stand.

Team	Top Pick	Top 5 Pick
NYJ	77.0%	100.0%
JAX	23.0%	100.0%
CIN	0.0%	98.1%
LAC	0.0%	62.9%

If you want to see how things changed, look at the post from one week ago.
Some sad news to report -- for the first time all season, our percentage actually went down. Compared to last week, our chances of getting the first pick went down 1.7 percentage points, while Jacksonville's went up 2.1 percentage points. We are now at a 100% chance that the first pick will go to Jacksonville or New York. All other competition has been eliminated. We’ve known for a while it was between these two teams, but now it’s a mathematical certainty.
Right now strength of schedule stands as follows:
NYJ: .596
JAX: .550
An easier way to think about SOS is in terms of actual wins.
Jets Opponents Record: 127-86
Jags Opponents Record: 115-94-1
That means that Jets are 11.5 wins ahead in the SOS race, up from 10.5 last week. Basically the SOS race is over. If you’re still curious about SOS considerations, check out the graphic put together by Jets X-Factor. I'll keep an eye on SOS, and if something changes I'll mention it, but for now consider it out of reach.
So where does that leave this guide? It has been very SOS dependent these past several weeks. Instead of abandoning the (many people are saying “heroic”) effort of writing a tank guide, I’ve decided to shift gears and focus on other elements of the tank. In lieu of Tank Grades the rooting interests are divided into tiers. I'd also add that while SOS is a pretty objective/mathematical question, these decisions about rooting interests are a bit more subjective. There's room for disagreement in some of these.

Who to root for Week 15:

Tier 1 -- The “Jets/Jags wins and losses are ultimately the only thing that matters” Tier

Jets (0-13) at Rams (9-4)

In an alternate universe where Sam is coached properly (by someone like Sean McVay). I’m pretty sure Sam Darnold is Jared Goff. Anyway, expect a blowout. The Rams outclass the Jets in every facet. GO RAMS!!! (10/10 Tank Grade)

Jaguars (1-12) at Ravens (8-5)

Anything can happen, right? Ravens have lost to a couple bad teams, but they do seem to be back in their groove. One week until Bears/Jags. GO JAGUARS!!! (9/10)

Tier 2 -- The “Week 17 Motivation” Tier

Patriots (6-7) at Dolphins (8-5)

This is an absolute must win game for the Patriots in the playoff hunt. We really want the Pats to have a path to making the playoffs at kickoff on Week 17. It would just be better if they’re as motivated to win as possible. That will mean rooting for the Patriots and against their AFC Wildcard competition (Baltimore, LV, Dolphins, Titans). Keep in mind, we don’t need (or want) the Patriots to make the playoffs, we just want their elimination to come after kickoff week 17. Preferably in heartbreaking fashion. Honestly the best case scenario is the JETS eliminating the Patriots after clinching the first overall pick, but I’ll take what I can get. GO PATRIOTS!!!

Texans (4-9) at Colts (9-4)

You may have noticed I left the Colts off the list of Patriots wild card competitors above. Well that’s because they play the Jaguars week 17 and well wouldn’t it be swell if the Colts were locked into winning their division and had to rest their starters? Phillip Rivers is pretty old he sure could use the extra rest. GO COLTS!!!

Lions (5-8) at Titans (9-4)

If the titans manage to lose the next two games and the Patriots win the next two, that’ll be enough to open a path for the Patriots in week 17. Plus, them losing would help the Colts secure that division title. GO LIONS!!!

Browns (9-4) at Giants (5-8)

The Browns are a unique case in the Patriots wildcard path because we play them next week and obviously we want them to win that one so presumably they’ll have 10 wins. Still, the tighter that AFC race is the better and I continue to want the Giants to stack up meaningless wins to convince themselves they’re in good hands with Jones/Gettelman a la last years Jets. Added bonus, if the Browns lose this one they’ll be desperate to beat the Jets and won’t hold anything back. GO GIANTS!!!

Steelers (11-2) at Bengals (2-10-1)

If we want the Colts to be locked into their seed, that probably means the 1 and 2 seed being out of reach. Let’s hope the Steelers can get back on track here. GO STEELERS!!!

Tier 3 -- The “Seahawks Draft Position” Tier

Seahawks (9-4) at Washington (6-7)

There’s been some speculation that we’d rather Seattle win their division rather than get the 5 seed. I think that’s feasible, particularly if they win this game, but the ideal scenario is Seattle finishes with as low a record as possible and ends up with a 6 or even 7 seed. Remember, record still matters when determining draft order among playoff losers. It would take a miracle for them to miss the playoffs (Minnesota or Chicago would have to win out and Seattle would have to lose out as well as Arizona and Tampa Bay finishing strong). So they’re probably in the playoffs and we should root for a lower seed. And hey, if they lose this one maybe a 5 seed wouldn’t be so bad -- NYG or WFT would be their most likely opponents and they will have lost to both.GO WASHINGTON!!!

Buccaneers (8-5) at Falcons (4-9)

The Bucs could sneak into the 5 seed if they finish strong, giving the Seahawks a tougher matchup as a six seed. GO BUCS!!!

Bears (6-7) at Vikings (6-7)

Like I said before, it would take a miracle for Seattle to miss the playoffs. That miracle would involve the winner of this game winning out. Vikings last two games are @NO, @DET and the Bears last two @Jax, GB. We’ll obviously be rooting against the Bears in the Jacksonville game, but its possible Green Bay will be sitting starters for that week 17 game so I’ll give them the edge. GO BEARS!!!

Eagles (4-8-1) at Cardinals (7-6)

There’s an outside chance the Cardinals overtake Seattle in NFC playoff seeding. A Seattle 7 seed would be great. GO CARDINALS!!!

Chiefs (12-1) at Saints (10-3)

Seattle is just as likely to vault up the NFC standings as they are down, particularly if New Orleans drops a couple more games. GO SAINTS!!!

Tier 4 - The “flimsiest of reasoning” tier

49ers (5-8) at Cowboys (4-9)

Alright this one doesn’t matter really but I’m hoping the 49ers are out of position to take a QB in the draft and see Sam as an attractive option. Let’s hope they’re outside the top ten which means a win here. GO NINERS!!!
Here’s a quick reference version:
1PM JAX TB WFT NE IND CHI DET SF
4PM LAR ARI NO
SNF NYG
MNF PIT
That's the guide for this week. Enjoy the games!

32. Houston Texans, 4-12 (previous rank: 30)
With it being official that the Texans cut JJ Watt. the Texans are dead last in the NFL. The Texans, even with JJ Watt, ended 4-12 and third in their division. They were beaten by teams that they shouldn't have lost too, including the Bengals, and some games were hilariously too close for comfort, especially the Jaguars game that ended at 25 - 27.
The Texans are in a terrible position, and if Deshaun Watson is traded. . .then this team could have a 0-16 season.
31. Detroit Lions, 5-11 (previous rank: 31)
The Lions could be contenders for the 2022 and 2024 seasons, earning themselves two extra first round draft picks, but they definitely won't this season. Even with Stafford, a top ten QB, they finished at 5-11, worst in their division. Now they'll be playing with Jared Goff, who is a downgrade. They might get a higher ranking if they draft correctly this season.
30. New York Jets, 2-14 (previous Rank: 31)
The Jets are quite possibly the most interesting offseason team. They have a lot of cap space and draft picks at their disposal and, unlike the Texans and lions, have a lot to work with. If they can get Deshaun Watson, they could be playoff contenders. It actually get's better. According to Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald - one of the top reporters in the business - the Jet's are Watson's preferred team. If they manage to get him the Jets could be ejected to the top 16.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars, 1-15 (previous rank: 32)
NOTE: this ranking assumes that Trevor Lawrence is on the roster. If Lawrence is, then the Jaguars can no longer be ranked as the worst team in the NFL.. Their offense is a little below average, but they do have some weapons. Unfortunately, this team can't rank any higher as their defense is a complete disaster.
28. Philadelphia Eagles, 4-11-1 (previous rank: 29)
The Eagles are most likely trading Carson Wentz, but the front office probably overpriced him. They are demanding two second round draft picks, but they should probably be the ones giving it away. The Eagles finished lower than even my expectations, and I hate the Eagles. (My Father is a Washington fan)
27. Cincinnati Bengals, 4-11-1 (previous rank: 28)
I joked about the Bengals starting a cardboard cutout of Penei Sewell at left tackle in 2021 because they ruined their chances of landing him with a late win, but the Dolphins could conceivably select Devonta Smith, which would mean Sewell would be the pick at No. 5. That's the good news. The bad news is that Joe Burrow may not be ready for the season opener. Cincinnati is difficult to rank for that reason.
26. North Carolina Panthers, 5-11 (previous rank: 22)
Teddy Bridgewater was not Teddy Bridgewater this season. He threw for countless end zone interceptions just in week 17, and the Panthers, overall, finished third in their division with a record of 5-11, and there was little difference from the 2019 season.
25. Atlanta Falcons, 4-12 (previous rank: 25)
The Falcons say that they plan on retaining Matt Ryan, but with a cap space 31 million dollars over, it seems very unlikely. If Atlanta Selects Justin Fields or Zach Wilson, there will be pressure to start the rookie and trade Matt Ryan. Either way, the Falcons aren't going to be very competitive next season as they'll need to cut some players to get under the cap.
24. New York Giants, 6-10 (previous rank: 24)
The Giants put up a fight this season, nearly making the playoffs by one game. Now they'll be better with Saquon Barkley's return to the line up, who was missing ever since an injury on week 2. Nate Soldier's return should help as well.
23. Dallas Cowboys, 6-10 (previous rank: 26)
Dallas is rumored to be an elite force in 2021 with Dak Prescott as the opener. But what about the offensive and Defensive line? Dallas wasn't even winning games when Prescott was the opener early is 2020.
22. Washington Football Team, 8-8 (previous rank: 22)
Washington made huge steps from the 2019 season, and now Chase Young will have experience. There defense was pretty dominant in 2020 and is expected to be the same, if not better, in 2021. Even though my father might hate me for ranking his team in the bottom half of the league, their offense is struggling. There QB situation is also a question mark, which is never a good sign. Of course, if they draft themselves a Jackpot QB, they could bounce forwards to the top 16, possibly 12.
21. New England Patriots. 7-9 (previous rank: 20)
The Patriots are a very difficult team to rank without knowing their QB situation. If they can land Carson Wentz or Matt Ryan, they will definitely become a playoff contending team again.
20. Minnesota Vikings, 7-9 (previous rank: 21)
The Minnesota Vikings are in an unusual QB situation. Kirk Cousins has shown dominance when playing weaker teams, throwing for 400 yards in week 17 against the Lions. This makes some fans think that Cousins should stay and was worth the terrible contact they signed. Their defense also stinks, and, according to Locked On Today podcast, the "Vikings were too soft this season."
19. Los Angeles Chargers, 5-11 (previous rank: 20)
The Chargers showed some promise with their QB this season, and managed to put up more of a fight then most expected. If Herbert doesn't regress, the Chargers may have a shot at the playoffs this year, however slim.
18. Denver Broncos, 5-11 (previous rank: 18)
The Broncos are another hard team to rank. If they supply themselves with an actual QB like Matt Ryan, the Broncos team will become a serious competitor for the Super Bowl. I had a lot of controversy in my mind over where this team stands, and I still think I ranked them to high.
17. Chicago Bears, 8-8 (previous rank: 19)
This Bears team is a real dilemma. They're defense is good, but their offense is a lot of question marks, especially QB wise. NVP Mitchell Trybulski has not shown the spark he once had. The offensive line was a mess last season, and even though their defense was good, it wasn't enough to get them higher than 8-8.
16. Las Vegas Raiders, 8-8 (previous rank: 17)
You don't even have to watch a Raider's game to know they need to upgrade their defense. Their offense was surprisingly good and even Beat the Kansas City Chiefs, who were 14-2 this season. With a good defense the Raiders are a very serious playoff contender.
15. Arizona Cardinals, 8-8 (previous rank: 16)
Even though I am obviously a Rams fan, I respect my divisional rivals. They improved greatly this season and managed to pull of an upset against the 13-3 Buffalo Bills. They would have been much higher on this list if they hadn't lost 7-18 to a Rams team with a backup QB.
14. Indianapolis Colts, 11-5 (previous rank: 8)
The Colts missed out on Mathew Stafford, so unless the Texans want to trade Deshaun Watson to a divisional rival, the Colts are stuck in the QB position. The Colt's two options as of now are Matt Ryan and Carson Wentz. unfortunately for the Colts, the Falcons are possibly not trading Matt Ryan and the Eagles are asking way to much for Carson Wentz. Things look grim for the Colts, but patience is the best thing the can do right now.
13. Tennessee Titans, 11-5 (previous rank: 7)
The Titans were dominant into the midway point of the season, however they began to slip near the end. This team's ranking will have to depend on how they fare without their offensive coordinator, Arthur Smith, who recently took Atlanta's head coach job.
12. Pittsburgh Steelers, 12-4 (previous rank: 12)
For the first time in my five years of writing Offseason Power Ranking, this is the first time the Steelers ended up behind the Top Ten. Big Ben was regressing later down the season. They lost to teams they shouldn't have, like Washington. And even though the defense was good this season, they were kicked from the playoffs by the Browns. The Steelers did not live up to expectations at all.
11. Seattle Seahawks, 12-4 (previous rank: 11)
The Seahawks had a strange inconsistency throughout the season. Either their offense was great and their defense was trash, or vise versa. The Seahawks have gotten lots of flak for their offensive line negligence, but it's not like they haven't tried to repair it. They traded for Duane Brown, spent a first-round pick on Germain Ifedi and found a gem in the third round last year when they selected Damien Lewis. That said, they probably should've addressed the offensive line further when they wasted a first-round pick on L.J. Collier in 2019.
10. Miami Dolphins, 10-6 (previous rank: 13)
Despite finishing 10-6 this season, the Dolphins are a fierce competitor for the playoffs this season. Unfortunately for me, this team is hard to rank because they are linked with Watson. If they start with Tua Tagovailoa this year they could be major playoff competitors. If they start with Deshaun Watson, they would be Super Bowl Contenders.
9. Cleveland Browns, 11-5 (previous rank: 10)
The Browns have shown unnatural aggressiveness, this season, going all the way to putting a fight up against the 14-2 Chiefs in the Divisional Round. For all five years of writing power rankings, the Browns were either in the low 30s or the high 20s. Now their breaking the top ten. Of course, everything depends on if Baker Mayfield plays like he did in 2019 or 2020. Hopefully for the Brown's it the latter.
8. New Orleans Saints, 12-4 (previous rank: 5)
With Drew Brees most likely retiring, the New Orleans Saints will be playing without the All-Star QB for the first time in 15 years. The only reason they still break the top ten is because they still have a lot of weapons. But, if I could, I would rate them a question mark. They are in cap space hell, and we don't know how well they'll actually play without Brees. For now, however, the Saints remain in the top 10.
7. San Francisco 49ers, 6-10 (previous rank: 14)
It hurts me write this, but the 49ers are main competitors for the playoffs and even the Super Bowl. They injured so many players last year, and if they don't do that this season, they could regain those 2019-2020 vibes. They may not be the best team in the NFC, but if they don't injure players like they did last season, they could be easy favorites.
6. Baltimore Ravens, 11-5 (previous rank: 6)
The Ravens are a strong team, and they'll be even better with Ronnie Stanley returning to play. Their only major flaw is the passing game. They ranked very low in the subject and it cost them a divisional round game. If they manage to improve on that, they could become the team to beat in the NFC North.
5. Buffalo Bills, 13-3 (previous rank: 4)
The Bills, unfortunately, were the worst team in the Championship round. They didn't play like they used to. They'll most likely be back next year, but they'll still have Patrick Mahomes in the way. Will this Bills team end up being like the 90s Utah Jazz team, who were really good but never won because they kept running into Michael Jordan? For the Bill's Mafia that has waited 25 years for this, I hope not.
4. Green Bay Packers, 13-3 (previous rank: 3)
This Packers Team would probably be first on this list and be the team throwing the Lombardi trophy across boats if they had drafted Chase Claypool or Tee Higgins instead of -Shudder!- Jordan Love. This team fortunately has an amazing chance at the Super Bowl, but this time they don't have a first round draft pick. . .they would probably draft another QB anyway,
3. Los Angeles Rams, 10-6 (previous rank: 9)
The Rams made a huge jump on the ranking table after the Stafford-Goff trade, and they could jump even further if they can draft players like Marvin Jones. And every Rams fan prays that they somehow manage to draft JJ Watts. The Rams have a bright future, even though it might be short term
2. Kansas City Chiefs, 14-2 (previous rank: 1)
First off, I didn't put the Chiefs at number 2 just because they lost the Super Bowl, its because I know the effects of losing them. The 2018 Los Angeles Rams went from 13-3 to 9-7 after they lost the Super Bowl, and they didn't lose by 22 points. Fortunately, Patrick Mahomes is still young and none of their players are being traded, so they still have amazing odds for the Super Bowl.
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 11-5 (previous rank: 2)
The Buccaneers have the G.O.A.T on their side, and their defense seems to be just getting better and better. The only problem I can see is how long it will last. The Tampa Defense struggled earlier in the season and could detain them from getting an incredible record. That doesn't mean they aren't my favorite team to win it all.
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Thanks for reading! These take a lot of time and effort, so please be supportive!